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RC 104 Futures EMinis

Futures · Started Jan 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
1329
Win Trades
71.6%
Profit Factor
0.50
Win Months
6.7%

About this strategy

A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a commodity at a date in the future. This strategy is mainly to trade securities such as ES, NQ, CL, GC, NG etc. This strategy has a high risk and high reward. This needs minimum 60000 in the account allocated for Futures trading so in case, we may have to average 1 more contract.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023-14.8-0.3-55.5-23.319.6-3.3-7.5132.0-12.5127.5-417.8-11.2-606.6
2024-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
2025-0.2-0.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/6/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age45 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades1329
# Profitable951
% Profitable71.6%
Avg trade duration8.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodMay 05, 2023 - Feb 22, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$257
Avg loss$1,415

Ratios

W:L ratio0.46
Sharpe Ratio-0.59
Sortino Ratio-0.64
Calmar Ratio-0.98

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.22
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life96.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-711.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.9%
Percent Trades Options0.1%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,415
Avg Win$257
# Winners951
Sum Trade PL (losers)$535,050
Sum Trade PL (winners)$244,042
Num Months Winners3
# Losers378
% Winners71.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table11

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)536.33
Avg Position Time (hrs)8.94
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago561

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)19.75
Daily leverage (max)358.87

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-2.85
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.24
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.66
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.83
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.41
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.31

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.44
SD0.84
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.51
df30
t-0.84
p0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio-0.59
Upside Potential Ratio0.58
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.75
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms26
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.44
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.84
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.45
Mean Square Error0.73
DF error29
t(b)0.07
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.78
p(a)0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.28
Jensen alpha (a)-0.45
Mean-4.22
SD6.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.64
df30
t-1.05
p0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.59
Sortino ratio-0.66
Upside Potential Ratio0.06
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-4.59
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD6.43
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms26
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-4.22
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion6.43
Covariance0.10
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)4.56
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-5.10
Mean Square Error42.33
DF error29
t(b)0.56
p(b)0.29
t(a)-1.17
p(a)0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-12.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta21.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-13.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.80
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.92
Jensen alpha (a)-5.10
VaR(95%)0.97
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.98
VaR(95%)0.23
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.48
Mean-0.13
SD0.95
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.14
df696
t-0.23
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.06
Sortino ratio-0.18
Upside Potential Ratio2.81
Upside part of mean2.13
Downside part of mean-2.26
Upside SD0.56
Downside SD0.76
N nonnegative terms114
N negative terms583
N of observations697
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.95
Covariance-0.02
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.88
DF error695
t(b)-3.32
p(b)1.00
t(a)0.07
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.17
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean-4.10
SD6.71
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.61
df696
t-0.99
p0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.59
Sortino ratio-0.61
Upside Potential Ratio0.30
Upside part of mean2.00
Downside part of mean-6.09
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD6.69
N nonnegative terms114
N negative terms583
N of observations697
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion-4.10
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion6.71
Covariance-0.09
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.38
Mean Square Error44.86
DF error695
t(b)-2.04
p(b)0.98
t(a)-0.82
p(a)0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-11.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.71
Treynor index (mean / b)1.32
Jensen alpha (a)-3.38
VaR(95%)0.50
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.58
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.62
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6803438650261504
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.04638042389384e+33
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations31
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.48
Mean of quarter 10.73
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.56
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.55
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.87
Number of observations697
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.63
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low99
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high114
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.25
Median0.51
Quartile 30.77
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.33
Mean of quarter 30.69
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.52
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-436470496
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)659
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.70
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 2817 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SYY2521B77.5 long50Jan 31, 2025Feb 22, 2025($985)
PFE2507N25 long25Feb 3, 2025Feb 8, 2025($343)
SPXW2503N5990 long100Feb 3, 2025Feb 4, 2025($1,070)
SOFI2531A20 long50Jan 31, 2025Feb 1, 2025($85)
KMB2531M129 long20Jan 31, 2025Feb 1, 2025($114)
NQ Z3short3Nov 10, 2023Dec 15, 2023($33,493)
QQQ2310W374 long20Nov 10, 2023Nov 11, 2023($994)
QQQ2310K378 long20Nov 10, 2023Nov 10, 2023$312
NQ Z3short1Nov 2, 2023Nov 9, 2023($5,989)
QQQ2309W374 long50Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023($1,320)
SPY short2500Nov 1, 2023Nov 9, 2023($46,355)
QQQ short10000Nov 1, 2023Nov 9, 2023($257,405)
NQ Z3long1Nov 2, 2023Nov 2, 2023($81)
NQ Z3short1Nov 2, 2023Nov 2, 2023($255)
NQ Z3short1Nov 2, 2023Nov 2, 2023($282)
NQ Z3long1Oct 31, 2023Nov 1, 2023($175)
ES Z3short3Oct 31, 2023Nov 1, 2023($1,742)
SPY2331V419 long25Oct 31, 2023Nov 1, 2023($2,293)
QQQ2331J348 short100Oct 31, 2023Nov 1, 2023$20,130
SPY2331V418 short50Oct 31, 2023Oct 31, 2023$680
QQQ2331V351 short100Oct 31, 2023Oct 31, 2023$3,060
NQ Z3long2Oct 31, 2023Oct 31, 2023$327
MNQ Z3long10Oct 31, 2023Oct 31, 2023$484
NQ Z3short3Oct 31, 2023Oct 31, 2023$591
NQ Z3long1Oct 31, 2023Oct 31, 2023$80
NQ Z3short2Oct 31, 2023Oct 31, 2023$822
QQQ2331V351 long100Oct 31, 2023Oct 31, 2023$3,560
NQ Z3long3Oct 31, 2023Oct 31, 2023($733)
QQQ2331V351 short100Oct 31, 2023Oct 31, 2023$1,160
NQ Z3long3Oct 31, 2023Oct 31, 2023$262

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.