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BalancedGrowth

Futures · Futures · Started Jan 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
24.3%
Max Drawdown
27.3%
Trades
373
Win Trades
27.1%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
46.7%
Subscribe $149/mo

About this strategy

trades MNQ with each trade 1 contract. Can run upto 10 MNQ contract at a time open, when conditions are right, 5 of which are positional in nature. ( i.e max overnight position 5 MNQ contracts)

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202310.2-6.117.12.913.72.8-5.24.2-6.2-5.211.4-0.841.4
20248.34.3-4.2-1.12.812.06.0-0.2-0.5-4.6-0.611.737.3
2025-0.7-5.0-6.3-4.43.33.3-0.82.90.69.1-6.1-4.9-9.8
2026-5.7-0.2-4.828.719.9-2.1-16.414.5-1.627.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/5/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age45 months
C2 Rank361
What it tradesFutures
# Trades373
# Profitable101
% Profitable27.1%
Avg trade duration2.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown27.3%
drawdown periodJan 22, 2025 - April 12, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)24.3%
Avg win$2,172
Avg loss$574

Ratios

W:L ratio1.41
Sharpe Ratio0.92
Sortino Ratio1.79
Calmar Ratio1.38

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.36
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life100.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)22.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)24.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)28.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity9.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss31.5%
Chance of 20% account loss10.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.5%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)514
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)898
C2 Score361
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)634

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$574
Avg Win$2,172
# Winners101
Sum Trade PL (losers)$156,104
Sum Trade PL (winners)$219,365
Num Months Winners21
# Losers272
% Winners27.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table45

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3288.12
Avg Position Time (hrs)54.80
Avg Trade Length2.30
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.30
Daily leverage (max)8.18

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta0.48
Treynor Index0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.17
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.60
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.15
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.89
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.32

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.26
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.08
df42
t2.08
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.14
Sortino ratio2.58
Upside Potential Ratio4.46
Upside part of mean0.46
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms17
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.02
r0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error41
t(b)4.47
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.72
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.24
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.00
df42
t1.93
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.06
Sortino ratio2.22
Upside Potential Ratio4.09
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms17
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.02
r0.58
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error41
t(b)4.55
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.62
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.24
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.29
df952
t2.46
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.32
Sortino ratio2.57
Upside Potential Ratio11.80
Upside part of mean1.10
Downside part of mean-0.86
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms359
N negative terms594
N of observations953
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error951
t(b)12.24
p(b)0
t(a)1.74
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)0.52
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.22
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.21
df952
t2.31
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.24
Sortino ratio2.37
Upside Potential Ratio11.58
Upside part of mean1.09
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms359
N negative terms594
N of observations953
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error951
t(b)12.17
p(b)0
t(a)1.64
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)0.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.58
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.16
df130
t1.53
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.94
Sortino ratio5.27
Upside Potential Ratio14.80
Upside part of mean1.64
Downside part of mean-1.05
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms56
N negative terms75
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.58
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.02
r0.45
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.87
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.39
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)5.66
p(b)0.23
t(a)1.14
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.07
Treynor index (mean / b)0.67
Jensen alpha (a)0.39
Mean0.55
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.07
df130
t1.47
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.85
Sortino ratio4.91
Upside Potential Ratio14.43
Upside part of mean1.61
Downside part of mean-1.06
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms56
N negative terms75
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.55
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.02
r0.45
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.37
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)5.68
p(b)0.22
t(a)1.10
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.03
Treynor index (mean / b)0.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.37
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations43
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.97
Median1.02
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations953
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low17
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high70
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.05
Median0.06
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations33
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.79
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-439327904
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)445
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.30
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.42
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.72
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.41
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.28
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.20
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal12.74
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.67
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.78
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.75
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal25.16

Trading record

Placed 6338 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ U6long19Aug 25, 2026Sep 1, 2026($1,743)
MNQ U6long1Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026($112)
MNQ U6long5Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026($693)
MNQ U6long5Aug 21, 2026Aug 24, 2026($869)
MNQ U6long1Aug 19, 2026Aug 19, 2026($169)
MNQ U6long23Aug 7, 2026Aug 18, 2026($2,543)
MNQ U6long31Jul 30, 2026Aug 7, 2026$17,011
MNQ U6long1Jul 29, 2026Jul 29, 2026($262)
MNQ U6long1Jul 28, 2026Jul 28, 2026($163)
MNQ U6long1Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026($166)
MNQ U6long14Jul 21, 2026Jul 23, 2026($3,161)
MNQ U6long2Jul 20, 2026Jul 20, 2026($228)
MNQ U6long2Jul 20, 2026Jul 20, 2026($351)
MNQ U6long2Jul 15, 2026Jul 16, 2026($1,148)
MNQ U6long6Jul 14, 2026Jul 15, 2026($1,745)
MNQ U6long1Jul 14, 2026Jul 14, 2026($123)
MNQ U6long5Jul 14, 2026Jul 14, 2026($1,016)
MNQ U6long8Jul 9, 2026Jul 13, 2026($1,705)
MNQ U6long10Jul 6, 2026Jul 7, 2026($2,992)
MNQ U6long18Jun 29, 2026Jul 2, 2026$3,208
MNQ U6long1Jun 29, 2026Jun 29, 2026($109)
MNQ U6long2Jun 29, 2026Jun 29, 2026($810)
MNQ U6long5Jun 25, 2026Jun 25, 2026($2,401)
MNQ U6long9Jun 18, 2026Jun 23, 2026($210)
MNQ U6long1Jun 18, 2026Jun 18, 2026($39)
MNQ M6long22Jun 11, 2026Jun 16, 2026$980
MNQ M6long1Jun 11, 2026Jun 11, 2026($195)
MNQ M6long3Jun 11, 2026Jun 11, 2026($693)
MNQ M6long9Jun 9, 2026Jun 9, 2026($2,829)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.