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MicroFutures Strategy

Futures · Futures · Started Dec 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
7.5%
Max Drawdown
45.8%
Trades
177
Win Trades
84.2%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
17.8%
Subscribe $150/mo

About this strategy

In this strategy my goal is keep monitoring by magnifying glass every open positions to prevent any potential account crashes. Rather than using stop losses, I always set take profits for each position. My goal is to achieve profit margins ranging from 200 to 1000 USD per day, depending on market conditions. In MicroFutures Strategy my focus is on the Micro-Crude Oil contracts and Micro E-Mini Nasdaq. The strategy was changed in order to let more subscribes follow this strategy with a lower capital and still enjoining profits.

To close a position in profit, my strategy looks for price changes of around 0.10 to 0.60 pip on Crude Oil / Nasdaq. The key for this approach is analyzing the volume profile of the market.

In addition to monitoring open positions, setting take profits, and analyzing the volume profile of the market, I also use technical analysis to identify the best entry points for any trade. By studying the graphs and charts, I can pinpoint potential support and resistance levels, identify trends, and make informed decisions about when to enter and exit positions. This helps me to maximize profits and minimize risks.

To effectively follow this strategy, it's recommended to have at least between 15K to 40k in capital. However, i suggest all new subscribes within this strategy to consult with the collective team to have a better understanding about the best settings regards auto trade for each subscribe of his own.



Please feel free to contact me with any question or concerns you may have, 24/7.
Looking forward to hearing from you soon!

Best regards,
Eliran :)

Momentum Commodities

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022-0.2-0.2
20235.419.128.74.56.50.5-2.7-0.2-0.2-1.1-1.63.977.1
2024-0.2-0.2-20.5-3.0-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-24.8
2025-0.33.7-0.3-0.30.0-0.5-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.30.7
2026-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.30.00.0-1.9

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/27/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age45 months
C2 Rank255
What it tradesFutures
# Trades177
# Profitable149
% Profitable84.2%
Avg trade duration6.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown45.8%
drawdown periodOct 09, 2023 - April 05, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)7.5%
Avg win$497
Avg loss$1,724

Ratios

W:L ratio1.54
Sharpe Ratio0.27
Sortino Ratio0.44
Calmar Ratio0.48

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life99.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-70.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)7.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity46.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.8%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.1%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss52.5%
Chance of 20% account loss26.5%
Chance of 30% account loss7.5%
Chance of 40% account loss3.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)316
C2 Score255
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,724
Avg Win$497
# Winners149
Sum Trade PL (losers)$48,277
Sum Trade PL (winners)$74,104
Num Months Winners8
# Losers28
% Winners84.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct170

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table46

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)9327.48
Avg Position Time (hrs)155.46
Avg Trade Length6.50
Last Trade Ago866

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.31
Daily leverage (max)9.22

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.12
Treynor Index0.22

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.20
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df26
t1.02
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.98
Sortino ratio1.42
Upside Potential Ratio2.52
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms18
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.01
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error25
t(b)-0.76
p(b)0.77
t(a)1.21
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.68
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
Mean0.16
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.56
df26
t0.87
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88
Sortino ratio1.04
Upside Potential Ratio2.11
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms18
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error25
t(b)-0.82
p(b)0.79
t(a)1.09
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.61
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.21
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.63
df593
t0.94
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.93
Sortino ratio1.02
Upside Potential Ratio4.72
Upside part of mean1.00
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms88
N negative terms506
N of observations594
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error592
t(b)1.55
p(b)0.06
t(a)0.76
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.62
Treynor index (mean / b)1.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
Mean0.16
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.47
df593
t0.70
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.77
Sortino ratio0.72
Upside Potential Ratio4.38
Upside part of mean0.96
Downside part of mean-0.80
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms88
N negative terms506
N of observations594
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error592
t(b)1.60
p(b)0.05
t(a)0.52
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)1.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.04
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df130
t0.62
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.64
Sortino ratio25.97
Upside Potential Ratio42.09
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms130
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.43
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.54
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)4.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.04
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df130
t0.61
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.63
Sortino ratio25.22
Upside Potential Ratio41.35
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms130
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.43
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.54
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)4.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations27
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.33
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.77
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.45
Number of observations594
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low65
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high88
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.07
Median0.13
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations20
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.43
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.43
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.70
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.56
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-480322240
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)179
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.86
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.86
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.47
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.48
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.28
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.92
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.84

Trading record

Placed 30 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL K4short5Mar 20, 2024Apr 22, 2024($10,750)
QCL J4short5Mar 13, 2024Mar 20, 2024($9,540)
QCL J4short2Mar 13, 2024Mar 13, 2024$684
QCL G4long2Dec 19, 2023Dec 21, 2023$3,504
QCL Z3long2Oct 30, 2023Nov 6, 2023($6,736)
QCL X3short2Oct 12, 2023Oct 12, 2023$1,284
QCL X3short2Oct 11, 2023Oct 11, 2023$684
QCL X3long2Oct 6, 2023Oct 11, 2023$2,844
QMCL Q3short6Jul 4, 2023Jul 17, 2023($2,201)
QMCL Q3long2Jun 30, 2023Jun 30, 2023$37
QCL Q3short2Jun 30, 2023Jun 30, 2023$44
QMCL Q3long6Jun 27, 2023Jun 29, 2023$997
QMCL Q3short4Jun 26, 2023Jun 27, 2023$234
QMCL Q3long2Jun 23, 2023Jun 23, 2023$97
QMCL Q3short6Jun 20, 2023Jun 22, 2023$378
QMCL N3short4Jun 15, 2023Jun 16, 2023($836)
QMCL N3short4Jun 14, 2023Jun 14, 2023$174
QMCL N3short2Jun 14, 2023Jun 14, 2023$251
QMCL N3short3Jun 9, 2023Jun 9, 2023$41
QMCL N3short3Jun 9, 2023Jun 9, 2023$137
QMCL N3short4Jun 6, 2023Jun 8, 2023($1,046)
QMCL N3short3Jun 1, 2023Jun 1, 2023$179
MNQ M3short5May 31, 2023May 31, 2023$513
QCL N3short3May 24, 2023May 25, 2023$1,746
QCL M3short2May 17, 2023May 17, 2023$384
QCL M3long1May 17, 2023May 17, 2023$192
QCL M3short2May 16, 2023May 16, 2023$194
QCL M3short2May 11, 2023May 11, 2023$484
QCL M3long2May 9, 2023May 9, 2023$424
QCL M3short3May 4, 2023May 4, 2023$96

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.