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Blue Viper Portfolio

Futures · Futures · Started Dec 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-3.1%
Max Drawdown
19.1%
Trades
350
Win Trades
46.6%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
20.0%

About this strategy

The BlueViper Portfolio is a hybrid trading system that combines the judgment and intuition of the human trader with the efficiency and consistency of algorithms. It has been designed to earn consistent returns by capitalizing on short-term price movements in equity indices.

Law enforcement shift schedules inspire BlueViper's portfolio design. Similar to how different platoons are deployed at different times of the day and night, BlueViper uses a similar approach in terms of system deployment.

Overall, the Blue Viper Portfolio is a robust and sophisticated trading methodology well-suited for traders looking to earn consistent returns by capitalizing on short-term market movements. By combining the strengths of human and machine-based trading strategies, it aims to provide a unique approach to trading in the equity futures markets.

RISK:

Method:
Fixed contract position sizing. 1 Micro contract for every $5,000.00 of the account balance.

i.e. For every $5,000.00 gained in account capital, risk per trade on a contract basis is increased by 1 contract.

Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20220.80.8
2023-2.54.42.3-0.63.20.8-1.1-3.35.3-6.10.7-1.41.3
2024-7.02.1-0.70.6-3.3-5.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-12.8
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/19/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age45 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades350
# Profitable163
% Profitable46.6%
Avg trade duration1.5 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown19.1%
drawdown periodJune 02, 2023 - June 23, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)-3.1%
Avg win$72
Avg loss$61

Ratios

W:L ratio1.03
Sharpe Ratio-0.58
Sortino Ratio-0.79
Calmar Ratio0.22

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life100.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-111.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-3.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity23.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss19.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$61
Avg Win$72
# Winners163
Sum Trade PL (losers)$11,448
Sum Trade PL (winners)$11,769
Num Months Winners9
# Losers187
% Winners46.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table45

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)88.45
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.47
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago815

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.34
Daily leverage (max)11.66

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index0.90

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-5.38
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.39
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.47
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.19
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.01
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.05
df13
t0.06
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.86
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio2.04
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms7
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.01
r-0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error12
t(b)-2.02
p(b)0.75
t(a)1.33
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean-0.00
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.01
df13
t-0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.81
Sortino ratio-0.01
Upside Potential Ratio1.94
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms7
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.01
r-0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error12
t(b)-2.02
p(b)0.75
t(a)1.27
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.00
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df321
t0.03
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.80
Sortino ratio0.05
Upside Potential Ratio6.79
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms110
N negative terms212
N of observations322
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error320
t(b)-0.21
p(b)0.58
t(a)0.06
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean-0.00
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.02
df321
t-0.02
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.75
Sortino ratio-0.03
Upside Potential Ratio6.70
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms110
N negative terms212
N of observations322
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error320
t(b)-0.19
p(b)0.57
t(a)0.00
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.20
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.66
df130
t-1.18
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio-2.27
Upside Potential Ratio4.55
Upside part of mean0.39
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms103
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.08
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.18
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)-0.45
p(b)0.53
t(a)-1.07
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)14.62
Jensen alpha (a)-0.18
Mean-0.20
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.72
df130
t-1.23
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.06
Sortino ratio-2.33
Upside Potential Ratio4.48
Upside part of mean0.39
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms103
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.02
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.19
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)-0.45
p(b)0.53
t(a)-1.12
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)14.96
Jensen alpha (a)-0.19
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.97
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations322
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low28
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high27
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low21
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high19
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.58
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-432431552
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)387
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.37
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.94
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.62
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.62
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-10.31

Trading record

Placed 496 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QMGC Q4short1Jun 7, 2024Jun 7, 2024($111)
MNQ M4long1Jun 4, 2024Jun 4, 2024($141)
MES M4short1Jun 4, 2024Jun 4, 2024($32)
QMGC Q4short1Jun 4, 2024Jun 4, 2024($71)
MES M4short1Jun 3, 2024Jun 3, 2024($64)
QMGC Q4short1May 31, 2024May 31, 2024$25
MES M4short1May 31, 2024May 31, 2024$55
QMGC M4short1May 30, 2024May 30, 2024($154)
MES M4long2May 24, 2024May 24, 2024($72)
MNQ M4long1May 24, 2024May 24, 2024($82)
MES M4short1May 23, 2024May 23, 2024$32
MES M4long2May 20, 2024May 20, 2024($93)
QMGC M4long2May 17, 2024May 17, 2024$55
QMCL N4long1May 17, 2024May 17, 2024$33
QMGC M4long1May 15, 2024May 15, 2024($16)
MES M4long1May 14, 2024May 14, 2024$18
QMGC M4long1May 14, 2024May 14, 2024($60)
MES M4long1May 10, 2024May 10, 2024($82)
MES M4long1May 9, 2024May 9, 2024$43
MES M4long1May 6, 2024May 6, 2024$105
MES M4long1May 3, 2024May 3, 2024($125)
MES M4long2May 2, 2024May 2, 2024$6
MES M4short2Apr 30, 2024Apr 30, 2024$139
MES M4long1Apr 29, 2024Apr 29, 2024($76)
MNQ M4long1Apr 26, 2024Apr 26, 2024$12
MES M4long3Apr 26, 2024Apr 26, 2024$26
MES M4short2Apr 25, 2024Apr 25, 2024($153)
MES M4long1Apr 23, 2024Apr 23, 2024$97
MES M4long1Apr 18, 2024Apr 18, 2024($116)
MES M4long1Apr 15, 2024Apr 15, 2024($111)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.