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Futures · Futures · Started Nov 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
965
Win Trades
49.9%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
37.0%

About this strategy

It still trade by strict rules. stop loss, risk management, max drawdown, It just trade as usual. mainly trade MNQ, NQ, It will trade NQ instead of MNQ on fast moving market.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20223.815.219.5
20230.84.22.21.94.43.37.71.83.64.22.81.345.2
20245.55.0-18.223.8-20.9-5.8-135.80.00.00.00.00.0-130.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/1/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$34,043
Age47 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades965
# Profitable482
% Profitable49.9%
Avg trade duration5.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodJuly 15, 2024 - July 17, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$607
Avg loss$680

Ratios

W:L ratio0.89
Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Sortino Ratio-0.65
Calmar Ratio-1.00

Verified

C2Star2

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life98.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-252.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.5%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)716
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$680
Avg Win$607
# Winners482
Sum Trade PL (losers)$328,323
Sum Trade PL (winners)$292,370
Num Months Winners17
# Losers483
% Winners50.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table21

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)356.73
Avg Position Time (hrs)5.95
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago774

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)8.05
Daily leverage (max)348.10

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.22
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.23
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.52
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats82.77
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats57.72
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.64
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.31
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.24

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.18
SD0.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.22
df22
t-0.32
p0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.19
Sortino ratio-0.25
Upside Potential Ratio0.67
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-0.68
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.74
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms6
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.79
Covariance-0.02
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.53
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.65
DF error21
t(b)-0.66
p(b)0.59
t(a)0.00
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.34
Treynor index (mean / b)0.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
Mean-5.47
SD8.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.66
df22
t-0.95
p0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.77
Sortino ratio-0.68
Upside Potential Ratio0.06
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-5.95
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD7.99
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms6
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion-5.47
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion8.01
Covariance-0.13
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.37
Mean Square Error66.75
DF error21
t(b)-0.39
p(b)0.55
t(a)-0.67
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-21.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta14.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-18.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha9.25
Treynor index (mean / b)1.61
Jensen alpha (a)-4.37
VaR(95%)0.99
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
Mean-0.86
SD0.97
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.89
df503
t-1.23
p0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.53
Sortino ratio-0.91
Upside Potential Ratio1.32
Upside part of mean1.24
Downside part of mean-2.10
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.94
N nonnegative terms204
N negative terms300
N of observations504
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion-0.86
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.97
Covariance0.01
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.95
Mean Square Error0.93
DF error502
t(b)1.06
p(b)0.14
t(a)-1.35
p(a)0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.08
Jensen alpha (a)-0.95
Mean-5.45
SD6.69
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.81
df503
t-1.13
p0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.60
Sortino ratio-0.82
Upside Potential Ratio0.18
Upside part of mean1.22
Downside part of mean-6.67
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD6.69
N nonnegative terms204
N negative terms300
N of observations504
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion-5.45
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion6.69
Covariance0.05
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-5.99
Mean Square Error44.73
DF error502
t(b)0.94
p(b)0.17
t(a)-1.23
p(a)0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-15.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.20
Jensen alpha (a)-5.99
VaR(95%)0.50
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.58
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-4.51
SD1.84
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.44
df130
t-1.74
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.35
Sortino ratio-2.47
Upside Potential Ratio0.89
Upside part of mean1.62
Downside part of mean-6.13
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD1.83
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms97
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.72
Mean of criterion-4.51
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion1.84
Covariance0.03
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-5.03
Mean Square Error3.38
DF error129
t(b)0.94
p(b)0.45
t(a)-1.89
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-10.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.32
Jensen alpha (a)-5.03
Mean-22.11
SD13.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.68
df130
t-1.19
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.10
Sortino ratio-1.69
Upside Potential Ratio0.12
Upside part of mean1.58
Downside part of mean-23.69
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD13.11
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms97
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.70
Mean of criterion-22.11
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion13.09
Covariance0.21
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)4.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-25.33
Mean Square Error171.81
DF error129
t(b)0.85
p(b)0.45
t(a)-1.34
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.16
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta15.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-62.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha12.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.79
Jensen alpha (a)-25.33
VaR(95%)0.76
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.82
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.03
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.78
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.38
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.32
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations504
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low59
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high72
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low24
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high29
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.45
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.30
Median0.53
Quartile 30.77
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.47
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations39
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.25
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-470626976
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-6.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.72
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.22

Trading record

Placed 2078 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NQ U4short20Jul 17, 2024Jul 17, 2024($15,170)
MNQ U4long100Jul 17, 2024Jul 17, 2024($8,499)
MNQ U4short100Jul 17, 2024Jul 17, 2024$641
MNQ U4short100Jul 17, 2024Jul 17, 2024($1,002)
MNQ U4short40Jul 17, 2024Jul 17, 2024$10,613
MBT N4long4Jul 16, 2024Jul 17, 2024($251)
MNQ U4short10Jul 15, 2024Jul 16, 2024($1,898)
MNQ U4long100Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($14,431)
MNQ U4short10Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($89)
MNQ U4long100Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024$313
NQ U4short10Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($9,210)
NQ U4long10Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($8,110)
NQ U4long3Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($34)
NQ U4long2Jul 14, 2024Jul 15, 2024$283
NQ U4long3Jul 12, 2024Jul 12, 2024$3,348
NQ U4long3Jul 12, 2024Jul 12, 2024($84)
NQ U4long1Jul 12, 2024Jul 12, 2024($68)
NQ U4long8Jul 11, 2024Jul 12, 2024$3,763
NQ U4long3Jul 11, 2024Jul 11, 2024($5,064)
NQ U4long3Jul 11, 2024Jul 11, 2024($18,442)
NQ U4long3Jul 10, 2024Jul 10, 2024$384
NQ U4short3Jul 10, 2024Jul 10, 2024$2,256
NQ U4long3Jul 10, 2024Jul 10, 2024($1,756)
NQ U4short3Jul 10, 2024Jul 10, 2024($2,116)
NQ U4long4Jul 9, 2024Jul 9, 2024$730
NQ U4short4Jul 9, 2024Jul 9, 2024$242
NQ U4long4Jul 9, 2024Jul 9, 2024($270)
NQ U4short4Jul 9, 2024Jul 9, 2024($594)
NQ U4long2Jul 9, 2024Jul 9, 2024($348)
NQ U4long4Jul 9, 2024Jul 9, 2024$344

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.