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Futures · Futures · Started Oct 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
14.8%
Max Drawdown
39.3%
Trades
792
Win Trades
50.5%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
38.3%

About this strategy

I have shut down the other two C2star Strategies, This is the only strategy that I'm trading, It will keep on trading by C2star's rules, It only trade MNQ now. no other contracts.

Momentum Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20224.51.620.828.2
202310.40.3-5.62.43.19.16.41.70.42.02.9-3.332.5
20247.23.4-1.53.2-31.524.54.70.00.00.00.00.00.5
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/17/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$33,660
Age47 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades792
# Profitable400
% Profitable50.5%
Avg trade duration7.5 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown39.3%
drawdown periodMay 23, 2024 - June 12, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)14.8%
Avg win$558
Avg loss$472

Ratios

W:L ratio1.21
Sharpe Ratio0.53
Sortino Ratio0.76
Calmar Ratio1.72

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life107.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-39.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)14.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)21.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity15.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss35.5%
Chance of 20% account loss14.5%
Chance of 30% account loss4.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.9%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$472
Avg Win$558
# Winners400
Sum Trade PL (losers)$185,060
Sum Trade PL (winners)$223,329
Num Months Winners18
# Losers392
% Winners50.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table47

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)452.23
Avg Position Time (hrs)7.54
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago772

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)6.42
Daily leverage (max)52.86

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-5.54

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-9.71
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.67
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats75.09
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats73.78
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.69
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.24
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.39
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.96
df22
t2.81
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.49
Sortino ratio5.86
Upside Potential Ratio6.87
Upside part of mean0.46
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms5
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error21
t(b)-0.53
p(b)0.57
t(a)2.66
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.88
Jensen alpha (a)0.43
Mean0.37
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.94
df22
t2.79
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.47
Sortino ratio5.30
Upside Potential Ratio6.31
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms5
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.40
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error21
t(b)-0.48
p(b)0.57
t(a)2.63
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.72
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.40
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.45
df514
t2.03
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.85
Sortino ratio2.16
Upside Potential Ratio5.86
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-0.68
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms210
N negative terms305
N of observations515
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.40
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.40
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error513
t(b)-0.08
p(b)0.53
t(a)2.03
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)-79.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
Mean0.36
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.29
df514
t1.82
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.69
Sortino ratio1.83
Upside Potential Ratio5.40
Upside part of mean1.06
Downside part of mean-0.70
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms210
N negative terms305
N of observations515
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error513
t(b)-0.01
p(b)0.51
t(a)1.80
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.75
Treynor index (mean / b)-358.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.09
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.20
df130
t0.14
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.97
Sortino ratio0.27
Upside Potential Ratio4.33
Upside part of mean1.45
Downside part of mean-1.36
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms101
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.73
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error129
t(b)-0.14
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.16
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.42
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean-0.02
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.04
df130
t-0.03
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.74
Sortino ratio-0.05
Upside Potential Ratio3.90
Upside part of mean1.40
Downside part of mean-1.42
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms101
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.69
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error129
t(b)-0.08
p(b)0.50
t(a)-0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.33
Treynor index (mean / b)1.40
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.01
Median1.02
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations515
Minimum0.82
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low58
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high72
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.82
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low22
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high31
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.05
Median0.06
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations32
Minimum0
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.64
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.23
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.77
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.07
Median0.14
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.27
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-380235328
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)20
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.59
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.49
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.79
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.47
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.58
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.47
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.72
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.34
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.16
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.18

Trading record

Placed 2414 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NQ U4short4Jul 19, 2024Jul 19, 2024$6,352
NQ U4long3Jul 19, 2024Jul 19, 2024($1,594)
NQ U4short2Jul 19, 2024Jul 19, 2024($1,416)
NQ U4short4Jul 18, 2024Jul 18, 2024$784
NQ U4short2Jul 18, 2024Jul 18, 2024($360)
NQ U4short2Jul 17, 2024Jul 17, 2024$174
NQ U4long2Jul 17, 2024Jul 17, 2024($302)
MNQ U4long9Jul 17, 2024Jul 17, 2024$707
ES U4short8Jul 17, 2024Jul 17, 2024$561
ES U4short6Jul 17, 2024Jul 17, 2024$4,340
NQ U4short1Jul 17, 2024Jul 17, 2024$232
NQ U4long3Jul 16, 2024Jul 16, 2024$636
ES U4short6Jul 16, 2024Jul 16, 2024$2,040
ES U4long6Jul 16, 2024Jul 16, 2024$652
ES U4long6Jul 16, 2024Jul 16, 2024($223)
ES U4short6Jul 16, 2024Jul 16, 2024($698)
ES U4short8Jul 16, 2024Jul 16, 2024$1,749
ES U4long8Jul 16, 2024Jul 16, 2024$186
ES U4short6Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($1,673)
ES U4long6Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024$327
ES U4long4Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($307)
ES U4short4Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($882)
ES U4long4Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($2,932)
ES U4short4Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($932)
ES U4long4Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($3,107)
ES U4long8Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024$4,336
ES U4short6Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($1,523)
ES U4long6Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($1,973)
ES U4long6Jul 15, 2024Jul 15, 2024($198)
ES U4long6Jul 12, 2024Jul 12, 2024$2,702

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.