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US Stock Momemtum

Equity · Stocks · Started Aug 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
43.8%
Max Drawdown
36.7%
Trades
13
Win Trades
46.2%
Profit Factor
2.40
Win Months
26.0%

About this strategy

The strategy aims to systematically invest in the stocks with the highest momentum over a 24-month period among the largest capitalizations on the Nasdaq, accompanied by an upward trend.
The portfolio is re-evaluated on a weekly basis, every Monday, with potential new position taken at market opening and existing positions closed at the open as well.
The stop-loss for a position is set at the 120-day moving average level. The objective is to offer a risk-adjusted return with a Sortino ratio of over 3 and a Calmar ratio of 2.
Since January 2013, the strategy has delivered a CAGR of 66% with a maximum drawdown of 34% and a Sortino ratio of 3.6.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022-0.30.0-0.3-0.3-0.3-1.3
2023-4.738.034.2-0.356.716.09.0-8.3-12.72.1-0.4-0.4182.8
2024-0.4-0.4-0.4-14.716.07.0-3.53.52.87.72.2-5.311.8
20250.8-16.6-0.4-0.4-0.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-16.9
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/31/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age49 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades13
# Profitable6
% Profitable46.2%
Avg trade duration72.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown36.7%
drawdown periodJuly 18, 2023 - May 01, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)43.8%
Avg win$8,126
Avg loss$2,964

Ratios

W:L ratio2.35
Sharpe Ratio0.73
Sortino Ratio1.40
Calmar Ratio2.22

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.29
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life93.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)123.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)43.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)29.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity35.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss53.0%
Chance of 20% account loss21.5%
Chance of 30% account loss10.0%
Chance of 40% account loss2.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)467
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,964
Avg Win$8,126
# Winners6
Sum Trade PL (losers)$20,745
Sum Trade PL (winners)$48,753
Num Months Winners13
# Losers7
% Winners46.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct91

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table50

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)104260.84
Avg Position Time (hrs)1737.68
Avg Trade Length72.40
Last Trade Ago552

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.91
Daily leverage (max)2.05

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta0.54
Treynor Index0.13

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.08
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.12
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.39
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.59
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.15
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.52
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.72

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.74
SD0.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.18
df20
t1.62
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.70
Sortino ratio3.76
Upside Potential Ratio5.62
Upside part of mean1.10
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.59
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms11
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.74
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.60
Covariance0.04
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.76
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.59
Mean Square Error0.35
DF error19
t(b)1.28
p(b)0.32
t(a)1.26
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.56
Treynor index (mean / b)0.98
Jensen alpha (a)0.59
Mean0.58
SD0.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.05
df20
t1.44
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.57
Sortino ratio2.76
Upside Potential Ratio4.61
Upside part of mean0.96
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.50
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms11
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.58
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.53
Covariance0.04
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error19
t(b)1.37
p(b)0.31
t(a)1.13
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.29
Treynor index (mean / b)0.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
Mean0.64
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.48
df475
t2.00
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.94
Sortino ratio2.93
Upside Potential Ratio9.96
Upside part of mean2.19
Downside part of mean-1.55
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms176
N negative terms300
N of observations476
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.64
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.03
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.63
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error474
t(b)7.09
p(b)0
t(a)1.65
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.11
Treynor index (mean / b)1.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.51
Mean0.55
SD0.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.31
df475
t1.77
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.77
Sortino ratio2.45
Upside Potential Ratio9.43
Upside part of mean2.12
Downside part of mean-1.57
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms176
N negative terms300
N of observations476
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.55
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.42
Covariance0.03
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error474
t(b)7.19
p(b)0
t(a)1.45
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)0.89
Jensen alpha (a)0.43
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.36
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.99
df130
t-1.42
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.79
Sortino ratio-2.39
Upside Potential Ratio3.98
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.95
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms29
N negative terms102
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion-0.36
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.36
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)1.79
p(b)0.40
t(a)-1.45
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.21
Jensen alpha (a)-0.36
Mean-0.37
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.07
df130
t-1.47
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio-2.46
Upside Potential Ratio3.89
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.96
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms29
N negative terms102
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.01
Mean of criterion-0.37
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.37
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)1.78
p(b)0.40
t(a)-1.48
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.33
Jensen alpha (a)-0.37
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations21
Minimum0.86
Quartile 10.93
Median1
Quartile 31.19
Maximum1.58
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.31
Inter Quartile Range0.26
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.58
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations476
Minimum0.89
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low33
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high35
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low29
Percentage of outliers low0.22
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high26
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.20
Quartile 10.21
Median0.23
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.25
Mean of quarter 10.20
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high0.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.43
Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.06
Median0.11
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-395261472
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)288
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.83
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.56
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.79
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.71
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.70
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.32
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.29
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.39
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-12.17

Trading record

Placed 11 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AVGO long53Jan 31, 2025Feb 28, 2025($1,053)
TSLA long57Dec 10, 2024Feb 28, 2025($6,736)
CRM long34Dec 31, 2024Jan 31, 2025$413
NVDA long250May 1, 2024Dec 31, 2024$12,748
GE long80May 31, 2024Dec 10, 2024$730
AMD long150Apr 1, 2024May 31, 2024($3,993)
META long30Apr 1, 2024May 1, 2024($1,913)
MSTR long8Mar 18, 2024Apr 1, 2024($588)
CELH long150Mar 18, 2024Apr 1, 2024($1,353)
COIN long60Mar 18, 2024Apr 1, 2024$1,395
NVDA long100Aug 30, 2023Oct 2, 2023($5,120)
NVDA long100Jul 3, 2023Aug 18, 2023$675
NVDA long147Jan 30, 2023Jul 3, 2023$32,778

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.