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AlphaBets

Futures · Futures · Started Jul 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
48.1%
Max Drawdown
50.9%
Trades
162
Win Trades
61.1%
Profit Factor
2.60
Win Months
20.0%

Short Term Currencies

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202213.324.95.042.230.7-4.4163.9
202337.5-12.123.111.39.35.00.00.00.00.00.00.090.1
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/26/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$17,500
Age50 months
What it tradesFutures, Forex
# Trades162
# Profitable99
% Profitable61.1%
Avg trade duration3.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown50.9%
drawdown periodDec 12, 2022 - Dec 22, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)48.1%
Avg win$1,264
Avg loss$778

Ratios

W:L ratio2.55
Sharpe Ratio0.98
Sortino Ratio2.02
Calmar Ratio6.68

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.13
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life94.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)304.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)48.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.5%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)50.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.2%
Percent Trades Futures0.7%
Percent Trades Options0.1%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss75.0%
Chance of 20% account loss49.0%
Chance of 30% account loss38.0%
Chance of 40% account loss20.5%
Chance of 50% account loss3.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$778
Avg Win$1,264
# Winners99
Sum Trade PL (losers)$49,040
Sum Trade PL (winners)$125,165
Num Months Winners10
# Losers63
% Winners61.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table50

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4380.28
Avg Position Time (hrs)73
Avg Trade Length3
Last Trade Ago1166

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)11.17
Daily leverage (max)84.13

Regression

Alpha0.11
Beta0.33
Treynor Index0.38

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.25
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.81
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats92.07
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats49.65
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.05
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.04
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.31

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.39
SD0.64
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.08
df16
t2.60
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.88
Sortino ratio10.75
Upside Potential Ratio11.92
Upside part of mean1.54
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.72
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms8
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion1.39
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.64
Covariance0.02
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.29
Mean Square Error0.43
DF error15
t(b)0.37
p(b)0.44
t(a)2.12
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.59
Treynor index (mean / b)5.86
Jensen alpha (a)1.29
Mean1.17
SD0.55
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.03
df16
t2.53
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.82
Sortino ratio8.44
Upside Potential Ratio9.59
Upside part of mean1.33
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.61
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms8
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion1.17
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.55
Covariance0.02
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.07
Mean Square Error0.32
DF error15
t(b)0.44
p(b)0.43
t(a)2.06
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.18
Treynor index (mean / b)4.56
Jensen alpha (a)1.07
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean1.29
SD0.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.13
df385
t2.59
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.75
Sortino ratio4.46
Upside Potential Ratio9.31
Upside part of mean2.70
Downside part of mean-1.41
Upside SD0.54
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms116
N negative terms270
N of observations386
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion1.29
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.61
Covariance0.02
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.15
Mean Square Error0.36
DF error384
t(b)2.55
p(b)0.01
t(a)2.30
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.14
Treynor index (mean / b)4.28
Jensen alpha (a)1.15
Mean1.12
SD0.58
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.94
df385
t2.36
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.56
Sortino ratio3.66
Upside Potential Ratio8.40
Upside part of mean2.57
Downside part of mean-1.45
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms116
N negative terms270
N of observations386
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion1.12
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.58
Covariance0.02
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.99
Mean Square Error0.33
DF error384
t(b)2.68
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.08
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.92
Treynor index (mean / b)3.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.99
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6738683428339712
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.07402391511328e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations17
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11
Median1.04
Quartile 31.29
Maximum1.45
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.14
Mean of quarter 41.40
Inter Quartile Range0.29
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations386
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.34
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low64
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high71
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.08
Median0.10
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.31
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.35
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-390881504
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)10
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)3.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.30
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)16.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs16.36
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.31
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)3.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs9.71
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal32.25
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 232 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
W N3long1May 3, 2023Jun 19, 2023$3,030
ES M3long1May 4, 2023May 4, 2023$467
NQ M3long1May 4, 2023May 4, 2023$1,008
ES M3long1May 3, 2023May 3, 2023$955
QCL M3long4May 3, 2023May 3, 2023$1,548
QI N3long1May 1, 2023May 2, 2023($8)
CHF/JPY short250May 2, 2023May 2, 2023$612
USD/JPY short200May 2, 2023May 2, 2023$716
EUR/JPY short250May 2, 2023May 2, 2023$771
QGC M3long3Apr 26, 2023May 2, 2023$786
GBP/JPY short200May 2, 2023May 2, 2023$1,366
DXM M3long5May 2, 2023May 2, 2023($435)
EUR/NOK short150Apr 25, 2023May 2, 2023($1,417)
USD/MXN long250May 2, 2023May 2, 2023($367)
EUR/CHF long200May 2, 2023May 2, 2023($59)
NQ M3long1Apr 28, 2023Apr 28, 2023$1,022
USD/JPY short100Apr 28, 2023Apr 28, 2023($652)
QGC M3long1Apr 26, 2023Apr 26, 2023($1,098)
QGC M3long2Apr 25, 2023Apr 25, 2023$1,644
NQ M3long2Apr 24, 2023Apr 24, 2023$1,224
QGC M3long2Apr 24, 2023Apr 24, 2023$554
DXM M3short2Apr 24, 2023Apr 24, 2023($16)
IWM2319Q175 long5Apr 21, 2023Apr 24, 2023($12)
QQQ2319Q297 long10Apr 21, 2023Apr 24, 2023$116
QGC M3long4Apr 21, 2023Apr 24, 2023$798
GBP/AUD long200Apr 21, 2023Apr 21, 2023$814
GBP/USD long400Apr 21, 2023Apr 21, 2023$816
CAD/JPY short250Apr 20, 2023Apr 20, 2023$397
NZD/USD long300Apr 19, 2023Apr 20, 2023($2,222)
AUD/NZD short300Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023($1,252)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.