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High Frequency Options

Options · Forex, Options · Started Jul 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
308
Win Trades
39.6%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
26.0%

About this strategy

This strategy uses order flow from Sierra charts DOM/Footprint and TOS by think or swim software to determine trade executions. Majority of trades from this account are algorithmic earnings trades with a focus on short term swing trades lasting 1-2 weeks. Members will be notified of order flow profit targets/trade sequences via broadcast messages so they can follow along.

Volatility Long / Short Directional Bets

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20221.196.998.765.9-19.843.2653.8
20233.3-1.6-36.345.1117.21.33.4-1.7-1.79.3-2.313.2149.4
2024-30.648.6-102.9-354.9-8.0-4.60.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-116.0
2025-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0
2026-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/18/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age50 months
What it tradesOptions, Forex
# Trades308
# Profitable122
% Profitable39.6%
Avg trade duration3.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodApril 01, 2024 - April 29, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$2,671
Avg loss$1,779

Ratios

W:L ratio0.98
Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Sortino Ratio-0.54
Calmar Ratio-0.94

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life99.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-444.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-77.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.4%
Percent Trades Futures0.1%
Percent Trades Options0.6%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)803
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)511

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,779
Avg Win$2,671
# Winners122
Sum Trade PL (losers)$330,834
Sum Trade PL (winners)$325,832
Num Months Winners13
# Losers186
% Winners39.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table21

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4412.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)73.54
Avg Trade Length3.10
Last Trade Ago823

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)15.31
Daily leverage (max)349.23

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.34
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.19
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-34.53
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.55
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats16.43
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats8.61
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.25
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.92
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.21
SD2.91
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df22
t0.58
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.82
Sortino ratio0.93
Upside Potential Ratio2.74
Upside part of mean3.57
Downside part of mean-2.36
Upside SD2.55
Downside SD1.30
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms11
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion1.21
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion2.91
Covariance-0.11
r-0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)-4.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.90
Mean Square Error8.41
DF error21
t(b)-1.06
p(b)0.64
t(a)0.87
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-11.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha6.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.30
Jensen alpha (a)1.90
Mean-3.15
SD3.69
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.82
df22
t-1.18
p0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.61
Sortino ratio-0.91
Upside Potential Ratio0.63
Upside part of mean2.17
Downside part of mean-5.33
Upside SD1.36
Downside SD3.47
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms11
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-3.15
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion3.69
Covariance-0.02
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.68
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.05
Mean Square Error14.26
DF error21
t(b)-0.14
p(b)0.52
t(a)-1.07
p(a)0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-11.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta9.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-8.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.86
Treynor index (mean / b)4.62
Jensen alpha (a)-3.05
VaR(95%)0.87
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.91
VaR(95%)0.44
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.84
Mean-0.43
SD2.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.19
df521
t-0.27
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.20
Sortino ratio-0.28
Upside Potential Ratio5.86
Upside part of mean9.14
Downside part of mean-9.58
Upside SD1.69
Downside SD1.56
N nonnegative terms242
N negative terms280
N of observations522
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.43
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion2.31
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.51
Mean Square Error5.32
DF error520
t(b)-0.13
p(b)0.55
t(a)-0.26
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.80
Treynor index (mean / b)5.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.42
Mean-3.26
SD2.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.31
df521
t-1.85
p0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.08
Sortino ratio-1.56
Upside Potential Ratio3.87
Upside part of mean8.09
Downside part of mean-11.35
Upside SD1.35
Downside SD2.09
N nonnegative terms242
N negative terms280
N of observations522
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-3.26
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion2.48
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.28
Mean Square Error6.17
DF error520
t(b)0.19
p(b)0.43
t(a)-1.86
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-25.30
Jensen alpha (a)-3.28
VaR(95%)0.23
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.28
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
Mean-10.72
SD3.64
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.93
df130
t-2.08
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.13
Sortino ratio-3.80
Upside Potential Ratio4.29
Upside part of mean12.13
Downside part of mean-22.85
Upside SD2.37
Downside SD2.82
N nonnegative terms52
N negative terms79
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-10.72
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion3.64
Covariance0.04
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-11.32
Mean Square Error13.27
DF error129
t(b)1.02
p(b)0.44
t(a)-2.18
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-21.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.06
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.77
Jensen alpha (a)-11.32
Mean-18.63
SD4.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-4.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-4.49
df130
t-3.19
p0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-7.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-7.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.66
Sortino ratio-4.78
Upside Potential Ratio2.64
Upside part of mean10.28
Downside part of mean-28.90
Upside SD1.74
Downside SD3.90
N nonnegative terms52
N negative terms79
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-18.63
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion4.13
Covariance0.06
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)4.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-19.49
Mean Square Error16.94
DF error129
t(b)1.35
p(b)0.43
t(a)-3.33
p(a)0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.99
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta10.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-31.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.90
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.38
Jensen alpha (a)-19.49
VaR(95%)0.39
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.45
VaR(95%)0.23
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.43

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.77
Median1.02
Quartile 31.14
Maximum3.82
Mean of quarter 10.34
Mean of quarter 20.91
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 42.07
Inter Quartile Range0.36
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.09
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high2.84
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.96
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.61
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.67
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.63
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.56
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.58
Number of observations522
Minimum0.27
Quartile 10.97
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum2.32
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low48
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.73
Number of outliers high48
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.57
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum0.27
Quartile 10.90
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum2.32
Mean of quarter 10.69
Mean of quarter 20.96
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.58
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.59
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.31
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.33

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.09
Median0.12
Quartile 30.45
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.78
Inter Quartile Range0.36
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations23
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.06
Median0.20
Quartile 30.34
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.15
Mean of quarter 30.26
Mean of quarter 40.59
Inter Quartile Range0.27
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.65
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.76
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.68
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.00
Number of observations4
Minimum0.19
Quartile 10.36
Median0.47
Quartile 30.64
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.19
Mean of quarter 20.42
Mean of quarter 30.52
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.28
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-350007264
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)28
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.96
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.96
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.05
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.96
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.96
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.63
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.44
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.24

Trading record

Placed 796 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
IWM2404R200 long1May 31, 2024Jun 5, 2024($33)
IWM2404R201 long1May 24, 2024May 31, 2024($41)
IWM2403R201 long1May 24, 2024May 31, 2024($39)
IWM2421E209 long1May 15, 2024May 22, 2024($166)
IWM2421E210 long1May 15, 2024May 22, 2024($118)
IWM2426D210 long33Apr 1, 2024Apr 27, 2024($12,477)
BA2419P180 long56Mar 15, 2024Apr 1, 2024($22,087)
BA2412P180 long65Mar 15, 2024Apr 1, 2024($30,826)
IWM2428C200 long65Feb 13, 2024Mar 15, 2024($1,621)
IWM2422C200 long90Feb 9, 2024Mar 15, 2024($8,516)
SPY2415C500 long70Feb 2, 2024Feb 7, 2024$19,085
SPY2409N482 long100Feb 1, 2024Feb 2, 2024($19,690)
IWM2401C199 long55Jan 22, 2024Jan 31, 2024($7,583)
IWM2401C200 long60Jan 24, 2024Jan 31, 2024($5,444)
IWM2423B198.5 long20Jan 22, 2024Jan 24, 2024($2,236)
IWM2409B196 long30Jan 11, 2024Jan 22, 2024$2,806
SPY2409B478 long20Jan 11, 2024Jan 22, 2024$10,443
SPY2409B477 long18Jan 11, 2024Jan 11, 2024$316
SPY2409B478 long20Jan 11, 2024Jan 11, 2024$357
IWM2409B198 long30Jan 11, 2024Jan 11, 2024($1,904)
SPY2426A475 long20Jan 9, 2024Jan 11, 2024($811)
IWM2419A195 long50Jan 11, 2024Jan 11, 2024($1,980)
SPY2409B472 long10Jan 9, 2024Jan 11, 2024$2,569
SPY2419M464 long40Jan 5, 2024Jan 9, 2024($7,156)
SPY2426A469 long20Jan 5, 2024Jan 5, 2024($1,908)
SPY2426A470 long20Jan 5, 2024Jan 5, 2024($1,498)
SPY2412M465 long50Jan 4, 2024Jan 5, 2024($385)
SPY2419M465 long40Jan 4, 2024Jan 5, 2024$830
SPY2409B475 long10Jan 2, 2024Jan 3, 2024($1,194)
SPY2431A473 long10Jan 2, 2024Jan 3, 2024($1,747)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.