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TopChasing

Equity · Stocks · Started May 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-4.0%
Max Drawdown
95.0%
Trades
725
Win Trades
61.1%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
15.1%

About this strategy

I'm Stock Trader With 10+ years of trading.
My strategy is based on "calculated Top and Dip" of stock move.
- Winning rate: > 70%;
- Risk loss: < 1% of capital.
- Stocks to trade: Very high volume.
- Time of trade: less than 2 hours, and the trade will be closed before 16h00.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022251.844.45.80.9-11.3-18.311.720.1427.8
20233.81.3-12.8-82.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-84.1
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/5/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age53 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades725
# Profitable443
% Profitable61.1%
Avg trade duration1.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown95.0%
drawdown periodJuly 21, 2022 - April 12, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)-4.0%
Avg win$341
Avg loss$525

Ratios

W:L ratio1.02
Sharpe Ratio0.15
Sortino Ratio0.18
Calmar Ratio0.32

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life84.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-101.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-4.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity576.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss89.5%
Chance of 20% account loss74.5%
Chance of 30% account loss69.0%
Chance of 40% account loss62.0%
Chance of 50% account loss44.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)32.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)22.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)4.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated1.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$525
Avg Win$341
# Winners443
Sum Trade PL (losers)$147,912
Sum Trade PL (winners)$151,104
Num Months Winners8
# Losers282
% Winners61.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table53

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)104.98
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.75
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago1240

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.91
Daily leverage (max)3.73

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.14
Treynor Index0.16

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-10.26
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.37
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.45
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats69.03
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.17
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean2.37
SD3.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df14
t0.78
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.43
Sortino ratio3.39
Upside Potential Ratio4.87
Upside part of mean3.41
Downside part of mean-1.04
Upside SD3.27
Downside SD0.70
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms8
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion2.37
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion3.39
Covariance-0.11
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.88
Mean Square Error12.22
DF error13
t(b)-0.40
p(b)0.57
t(a)0.85
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha10.17
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.88
Jensen alpha (a)2.88
Mean0.21
SD1.84
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.11
df14
t0.13
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.86
Sortino ratio0.19
Upside Potential Ratio1.53
Upside part of mean1.68
Downside part of mean-1.47
Upside SD1.40
Downside SD1.10
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms8
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion1.84
Covariance-0.03
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error3.63
DF error13
t(b)-0.19
p(b)0.53
t(a)0.18
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.33
VaR(95%)0.57
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.65
VaR(95%)0.20
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.42
Mean0.50
SD0.72
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df344
t0.81
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.41
Sortino ratio0.88
Upside Potential Ratio3.81
Upside part of mean2.17
Downside part of mean-1.67
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.57
N nonnegative terms138
N negative terms207
N of observations345
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.72
Covariance0.01
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.51
DF error343
t(b)0.92
p(b)0.18
t(a)0.71
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.68
Treynor index (mean / b)4.10
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
Mean0.19
SD0.83
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.23
df344
t0.27
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.94
Sortino ratio0.27
Upside Potential Ratio2.87
Upside part of mean2.08
Downside part of mean-1.89
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.73
N nonnegative terms138
N negative terms207
N of observations345
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.83
Covariance0.01
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.70
DF error343
t(b)0.64
p(b)0.26
t(a)0.21
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.59
Treynor index (mean / b)1.95
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-2.49
SD0.88
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.81
df130
t-2.00
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.02
Sortino ratio-2.80
Upside Potential Ratio0.19
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-2.66
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.89
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms119
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.36
Mean of criterion-2.49
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.88
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.49
Mean Square Error0.78
DF error129
t(b)-0.02
p(b)0.50
t(a)-1.94
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)724.64
Jensen alpha (a)-2.49
Mean-3.05
SD1.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.66
df130
t-1.89
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.13
Sortino ratio-2.65
Upside Potential Ratio0.14
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-3.21
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD1.15
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms119
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion-3.05
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion1.14
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.02
Mean Square Error1.30
DF error129
t(b)-0.08
p(b)0.50
t(a)-1.82
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.58
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)134.25
Jensen alpha (a)-3.02
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations15
Minimum0.32
Quartile 10.96
Median1.00
Quartile 31.08
Maximum4.65
Mean of quarter 10.68
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 42.04
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.50
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high2.96
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.27
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.58
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.99
Number of observations345
Minimum0.51
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low40
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high52
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum0.51
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low17
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.27
Quartile 10.40
Median0.52
Quartile 30.65
Maximum0.78
Mean of quarter 10.27
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.78
Inter Quartile Range0.26
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.78
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.40
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.54
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.34
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.94
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.70
Expected Shortfall (regression method)13.31
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.40
Maximum0.78
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.78
Inter Quartile Range0.39
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-511350848
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)265
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.27
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.34
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.34
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.40
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.32
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.62
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.49
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.56
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.95
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.22
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-6.57

Trading record

Placed 1298 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GFAI short3000Apr 12, 2023Apr 12, 2023($24,400)
COIN short1000Apr 11, 2023Apr 11, 2023$1,743
ZIM short2000Apr 11, 2023Apr 11, 2023($1,430)
FSLY short2000Apr 11, 2023Apr 11, 2023$328
KMX short600Apr 11, 2023Apr 11, 2023$32
CNK short2000Apr 10, 2023Apr 10, 2023$286
WDC short1000Apr 10, 2023Apr 10, 2023$252
GFAI short4000Apr 6, 2023Apr 6, 2023$1,048
GFAI short6000Apr 6, 2023Apr 6, 2023($14,990)
GFAI long3000Apr 6, 2023Apr 6, 2023($2,645)
AI short3400Mar 31, 2023Mar 31, 2023($5,796)
UPST short5000Mar 31, 2023Mar 31, 2023($928)
PATH short2000Mar 31, 2023Mar 31, 2023($385)
EBS short5000Mar 30, 2023Mar 30, 2023$703
PDD short700Mar 30, 2023Mar 30, 2023$754
CALM short500Mar 29, 2023Mar 29, 2023$441
ENVX short1500Mar 29, 2023Mar 29, 2023($261)
RIVN short6000Mar 29, 2023Mar 29, 2023$1,273
MU short1000Mar 29, 2023Mar 29, 2023$962
BA short400Mar 28, 2023Mar 28, 2023($279)
TZA long1000Mar 24, 2023Mar 24, 2023($710)
ETNB long2000Mar 24, 2023Mar 24, 2023($2,805)
AMD long200Mar 23, 2023Mar 23, 2023($559)
AMD long600Mar 23, 2023Mar 23, 2023$685
NVDA long40Mar 22, 2023Mar 22, 2023$238
GOOGL long80Mar 21, 2023Mar 21, 2023$126
RIOT long300Mar 20, 2023Mar 21, 2023$179
NEM short200Mar 17, 2023Mar 17, 2023($58)
NVDA long80Mar 17, 2023Mar 17, 2023($346)
MSFT long60Mar 17, 2023Mar 17, 2023$21

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.