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POWER BEHIND THE THRONE

Equity · Stocks · Started May 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
7.6%
Max Drawdown
48.3%
Trades
485
Win Trades
95.1%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
30.8%

About this strategy

My system consists of 4 different types of analysis, price action, spread, volume, volume delta. Many years of experience allows me to analyze and predict price movements on any time periods. The system was developed by me personally 8 years ago and is constantly being improved. The type of system is pattern. I don't chase big profits with low odds. Game theory has taught me to take highly probable small profits. My systems are fully automated, but in order to demonstrate the possibilities of my system, I conduct public trading in person, without the use of robots, anyone can join. I am also open for cooperation, ready to consider your suggestions, feel free to write to me.

Momentum Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202215.629.1-20.912.77.910.15.30.166.4
20234.81.5-5.329.0-16.7-22.6-14.15.014.74.11.2-10.4-18.2
20241.2-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.01.2
20250.0-0.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.00.00.0-0.0
20260.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.00.1-0.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/2/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age53 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades485
# Profitable461
% Profitable95.1%
Avg trade duration5.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown48.3%
drawdown periodMay 04, 2023 - July 19, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)7.6%
Avg win$240
Avg loss$3,485

Ratios

W:L ratio1.31
Sharpe Ratio0.28
Sortino Ratio0.41
Calmar Ratio0.43

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.11
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life83.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-48.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)7.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity64.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss75.5%
Chance of 20% account loss49.0%
Chance of 30% account loss22.0%
Chance of 40% account loss12.0%
Chance of 50% account loss2.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,485
Avg Win$240
# Winners461
Sum Trade PL (losers)$83,635
Sum Trade PL (winners)$110,443
Num Months Winners25
# Losers24
% Winners95.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-1241

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table52

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7789.22
Avg Position Time (hrs)129.82
Avg Trade Length5.40
Last Trade Ago955

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.29
Daily leverage (max)5.50

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta-0.19
Treynor Index-0.13

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.09
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.49
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.22
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.05
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-3.50
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.23
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.57
df26
t0.88
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.89
Sortino ratio0.91
Upside Potential Ratio2.28
Upside part of mean0.57
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms15
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance-0.03
r-0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.39
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error25
t(b)-2.06
p(b)0.98
t(a)1.53
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.92
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.39
Mean0.15
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.38
df26
t0.58
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.69
Sortino ratio0.54
Upside Potential Ratio1.88
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms15
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance-0.03
r-0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.65
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error25
t(b)-2.01
p(b)0.97
t(a)1.17
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.84
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean0.21
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df593
t0.91
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.91
Sortino ratio0.89
Upside Potential Ratio7.79
Upside part of mean1.85
Downside part of mean-1.64
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms228
N negative terms366
N of observations594
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance-0.01
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error592
t(b)-3.47
p(b)1.00
t(a)1.18
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.95
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
Mean0.15
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df593
t0.65
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.73
Sortino ratio0.62
Upside Potential Ratio7.47
Upside part of mean1.82
Downside part of mean-1.67
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms228
N negative terms366
N of observations594
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance-0.01
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error592
t(b)-3.52
p(b)1.00
t(a)0.89
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.66
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.67
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-21.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-21.33
df130
t-15.17
p0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-25.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-17.53
Sortino ratio-13.06
Upside Potential Ratio0.51
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms122
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.81
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.00
Covariance-0.00
r-0.71
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)-11.59
p(b)0.91
t(a)-19.41
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)9.19
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-21.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-21.33
df130
t-15.17
p0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-25.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-17.53
Sortino ratio-13.06
Upside Potential Ratio0.51
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms122
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.77
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.00
Covariance-0.00
r-0.72
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)-11.69
p(b)0.91
t(a)-19.60
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)9.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations27
Minimum0.73
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.30
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.80
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.36
Number of observations594
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low41
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high44
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low14
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.10
Median0.19
Quartile 30.28
Maximum0.37
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.19
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.37
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.45
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.27
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.99
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.26
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.44
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.48
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-366792928
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)76
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.53
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.53
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.43
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.54
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.42
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.42
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-7.86

Trading record

Placed 543 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TMF long1000Jan 3, 2024Jan 16, 2024($6,381)
TMF long100Nov 2, 2023Dec 14, 2023$1,823
CVX long200Nov 2, 2023Dec 14, 2023$176
KO long200Nov 2, 2023Nov 14, 2023$8
AMT long100Nov 6, 2023Nov 14, 2023$744
EBAY long200Nov 6, 2023Nov 14, 2023$14
YUM long80Nov 6, 2023Nov 14, 2023$51
LLY long100Nov 6, 2023Nov 6, 2023$39
FMC long100Nov 2, 2023Nov 3, 2023$104
DVN long100Nov 2, 2023Nov 3, 2023$44
POST long100Nov 2, 2023Nov 3, 2023$118
DTE long100Nov 2, 2023Nov 3, 2023$155
DIS long100Nov 2, 2023Nov 3, 2023$181
NKE long100Nov 2, 2023Nov 3, 2023$250
AWK long100Nov 2, 2023Nov 3, 2023$626
UPRO short1100May 12, 2023May 24, 2023$115
SQQQ short1500May 12, 2023May 12, 2023$370
UPRO short1000May 11, 2023May 12, 2023$238
NFLX short200May 11, 2023May 11, 2023$146
GOOG short200May 11, 2023May 11, 2023$204
UPRO short1500May 5, 2023May 11, 2023$198
UPRO long1000May 4, 2023May 4, 2023$284
UDOW long1000May 4, 2023May 4, 2023$478
TQQQ long1000May 4, 2023May 4, 2023$234
SQQQ long1000May 3, 2023May 3, 2023$718
TQQQ short1000May 3, 2023May 3, 2023$731
UPRO short1000May 3, 2023May 3, 2023$868
UPRO long2000May 2, 2023May 3, 2023($8)
TQQQ long2500May 2, 2023May 3, 2023$127
UPRO short500May 1, 2023May 2, 2023$362

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.