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MNQ intraday trade

Futures · Futures · Started Apr 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
5.3%
Max Drawdown
16.5%
Trades
85
Win Trades
45.9%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
3.8%

About this strategy

mainly trade MNQ and NQ by short term trend.

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20228.715.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.025.5
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/1/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age54 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades85
# Profitable39
% Profitable45.9%
Avg trade duration17.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown16.5%
drawdown periodMay 17, 2022 - May 18, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)5.3%
Avg win$1,146
Avg loss$672

Ratios

W:L ratio1.45
Sharpe Ratio0.33
Sortino Ratio2.23
Calmar Ratio5.41

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life68.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-44.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity18.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss17.5%
Chance of 20% account loss1.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$672
Avg Win$1,146
# Winners39
Sum Trade PL (losers)$30,931
Sum Trade PL (winners)$44,713
Num Months Winners2
# Losers46
% Winners45.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table53

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1030.37
Avg Position Time (hrs)17.17
Avg Trade Length0.70
Last Trade Ago1564

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.96
Daily leverage (max)62.35

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.03
Treynor Index0.29

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades12.27
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.49
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.16
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.13
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.09
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df25
t1.04
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.03
Sortino ratio11.41
Upside Potential Ratio14.73
Upside part of mean0.11
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms24
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.01
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error24
t(b)-0.98
p(b)0.83
t(a)1.27
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.90
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.08
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.68
df25
t1.03
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio10.48
Upside Potential Ratio13.81
Upside part of mean0.11
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms24
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.01
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error24
t(b)-1.01
p(b)0.84
t(a)1.24
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.09
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df567
t1.05
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio4.98
Upside Potential Ratio8.07
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms548
N of observations568
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error566
t(b)1.46
p(b)0.07
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)2.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.08
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df567
t1.03
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.03
Sortino ratio4.55
Upside Potential Ratio7.62
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms548
N of observations568
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error566
t(b)1.45
p(b)0.07
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)2.67
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.01
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.96
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6750970792902656
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.53666503468775e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations26
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations568
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high20
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-523018880
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.90
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.90
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.06
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 53 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NQ M2short2May 19, 2022May 19, 2022$64
NQ M2long4May 18, 2022May 18, 2022($1,522)
NQ M2long4May 17, 2022May 18, 2022$838
NQ U2long4May 17, 2022May 18, 2022$1,438
MNQ M2long10May 17, 2022May 17, 2022$1,038
MNQ U2long10May 17, 2022May 17, 2022$998
MNQ M2long2May 17, 2022May 17, 2022$3
NQ M2long4May 17, 2022May 17, 2022$14,248
NQ U2long4May 17, 2022May 17, 2022$13,828
NQ M2long4May 16, 2022May 16, 2022($9,562)
MNQ M2long10May 16, 2022May 16, 2022($2,337)
NQ U2long4May 16, 2022May 16, 2022($9,382)
MNQ M2long5May 16, 2022May 16, 2022($490)
M6E M2short1May 13, 2022May 16, 2022($46)
MCD M2short4May 13, 2022May 16, 2022($149)
MNQ M2short5May 16, 2022May 16, 2022($308)
MNQ M2long5May 16, 2022May 16, 2022($462)
MNQ M2short3May 16, 2022May 16, 2022($66)
MNQ M2long3May 16, 2022May 16, 2022($234)
MNQ M2long3May 16, 2022May 16, 2022($14)
BD M2short4May 16, 2022May 16, 2022$301
EX M2short4May 13, 2022May 13, 2022$425
MNQ M2long5May 13, 2022May 13, 2022$375
CD M2short2May 13, 2022May 13, 2022($36)
MNQ M2short2May 13, 2022May 13, 2022($22)
MNQ M2short5May 13, 2022May 13, 2022($62)
MNQ M2long5May 13, 2022May 13, 2022($149)
MNQ M2short5May 13, 2022May 13, 2022($86)
MNQ M2long10May 13, 2022May 13, 2022($133)
MNQ M2long5May 13, 2022May 13, 2022$435

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.