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ONLY MES

Futures · Futures · Started Dec 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
56.4%
Max Drawdown
83.6%
Trades
47
Win Trades
87.2%
Profit Factor
1.70
Win Months
17.2%

About this strategy

Trend trading for MES futures only stategy. Make sure you match you account to stategy current account

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021-15.4-15.4
202270.5171.30.05.632.392.6-60.848.5-35.1148.0-22.087.81609.1
2023-35.836.7-4.9-8.3-0.4-44.60.00.01.40.00.00.0-57.2
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/23/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age57 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades47
# Profitable41
% Profitable87.2%
Avg trade duration9.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown83.6%
drawdown periodJuly 13, 2022 - Aug 16, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)56.4%
Avg win$4,519
Avg loss$17,726

Ratios

W:L ratio1.74
Sharpe Ratio0.74
Sortino Ratio1.42
Calmar Ratio2.33

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.35
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life61.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)656.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)56.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.6%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)58.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity126.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss79.5%
Chance of 20% account loss70.0%
Chance of 30% account loss58.5%
Chance of 40% account loss46.0%
Chance of 50% account loss39.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)26.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)16.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)7.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$17,726
Avg Win$4,519
# Winners41
Sum Trade PL (losers)$106,357
Sum Trade PL (winners)$185,262
Num Months Winners11
# Losers6
% Winners87.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table58

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)13457.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)224.29
Avg Trade Length9.30
Last Trade Ago1078

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)8.32
Daily leverage (max)51.15

Regression

Alpha0.34
Beta-2.41
Treynor Index-0.11

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.90
SD1.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.34
df23
t1.96
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.78
Sortino ratio3.51
Upside Potential Ratio4.84
Upside part of mean2.62
Downside part of mean-0.72
Upside SD1.34
Downside SD0.54
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms11
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion1.90
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion1.37
Covariance-0.21
r-0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.88
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.46
Mean Square Error1.33
DF error22
t(b)-3.23
p(b)1.00
t(a)2.95
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.66
Jensen alpha (a)2.46
Mean1.06
SD1.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.82
df23
t1.20
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.23
Sortino ratio1.35
Upside Potential Ratio2.57
Upside part of mean2.02
Downside part of mean-0.96
Upside SD0.99
Downside SD0.78
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms11
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion1.06
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion1.25
Covariance-0.17
r-0.53
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.47
Mean Square Error1.17
DF error22
t(b)-2.94
p(b)1.00
t(a)1.89
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.41
Jensen alpha (a)1.47
VaR(95%)0.40
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.48
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.28
Mean2.29
SD1.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.38
df534
t1.97
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.75
Sortino ratio2.60
Upside Potential Ratio8.51
Upside part of mean7.47
Downside part of mean-5.18
Upside SD1.41
Downside SD0.88
N nonnegative terms177
N negative terms358
N of observations535
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion2.29
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion1.66
Covariance-0.20
r-0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.86
Mean Square Error2.31
DF error533
t(b)-10.18
p(b)1
t(a)2.68
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.95
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.02
Jensen alpha (a)2.86
Mean1.04
SD1.55
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df534
t0.96
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio1.04
Upside Potential Ratio6.68
Upside part of mean6.68
Downside part of mean-5.64
Upside SD1.19
Downside SD1.00
N nonnegative terms177
N negative terms358
N of observations535
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion1.04
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion1.55
Covariance-0.19
r-0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.49
Mean Square Error2.00
DF error533
t(b)-10.51
p(b)1
t(a)1.51
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.44
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.48
Jensen alpha (a)1.49
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean-0.01
SD0.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.66
df130
t-0.47
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.11
Sortino ratio-5.20
Upside Potential Ratio10.92
Upside part of mean0.02
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms130
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.01
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-0.32
p(b)0.52
t(a)-0.39
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)7.97
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.67
df130
t-0.48
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.10
Sortino ratio-5.25
Upside Potential Ratio10.87
Upside part of mean0.02
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms130
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.01
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-0.31
p(b)0.52
t(a)-0.41
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)8.39
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations24
Minimum0.38
Quartile 10.98
Median1.02
Quartile 31.35
Maximum2.03
Mean of quarter 10.76
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.17
Mean of quarter 41.70
Inter Quartile Range0.37
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.38
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high2.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.76
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations535
Minimum0.60
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.65
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low85
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high81
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.15
Median0.32
Quartile 30.52
Maximum0.62
Mean of quarter 10.08
Mean of quarter 20.17
Mean of quarter 30.48
Mean of quarter 40.62
Inter Quartile Range0.37
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations30
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.08
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.82
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 40.42
Inter Quartile Range0.17
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.61
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.43
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.60
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.39
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396411840
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)34
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)3.91
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.97
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.19
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.13
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)3.83
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.91
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.51
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.84
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.00

Trading record

Placed 96 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MES M3short40Mar 27, 2023Jun 16, 2023($80,173)
MES M3short40Mar 16, 2023Mar 24, 2023$9,427
MES H3short60Jan 6, 2023Mar 16, 2023($10,830)
MES H3short20Dec 23, 2022Dec 28, 2022$4,476
MES H3long20Dec 22, 2022Dec 22, 2022$2,676
MES H3short20Dec 21, 2022Dec 22, 2022$6,276
MES H3long20Dec 16, 2022Dec 16, 2022$1,476
MES H3short20Dec 12, 2022Dec 15, 2022$9,976
MES Z2short60Nov 10, 2022Dec 6, 2022$18,128
MES Z2short10Nov 8, 2022Nov 9, 2022$1,976
ES Z2short10Nov 8, 2022Nov 8, 2022$420
MES Z2short10Oct 28, 2022Nov 1, 2022$367
MES Z2short10Oct 27, 2022Oct 27, 2022$1,488
MES Z2short20Oct 26, 2022Oct 26, 2022$1,342
MES Z2long20Oct 13, 2022Oct 13, 2022$176
MES Z2long20Oct 11, 2022Oct 12, 2022$2,476
MES Z2long20Oct 10, 2022Oct 11, 2022$1,976
MES Z2long30Oct 7, 2022Oct 10, 2022$2,272
MES Z2short10Oct 4, 2022Oct 5, 2022$1,638
MES Z2long50Sep 21, 2022Oct 4, 2022$11,190
MES U2short50Jul 14, 2022Sep 15, 2022($12,679)
MES U2short20Jul 4, 2022Jul 13, 2022$5,539
MES U2short10Jun 30, 2022Jun 30, 2022$2,488
MES U2short30Jun 23, 2022Jun 30, 2022$19,203
MES U2long20Jun 16, 2022Jun 23, 2022$10,876
MES M2long20Jun 12, 2022Jun 15, 2022$276
MES U2long3Jun 10, 2022Jun 10, 2022$371
MES M2short20May 25, 2022Jun 10, 2022$15,066
MES M2short6May 23, 2022May 24, 2022$2,823
MES M2short4May 22, 2022May 23, 2022$195

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.