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SmarterOptions_com

Options · Options · Started Dec 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-6.3%
Max Drawdown
71.3%
Trades
177
Win Trades
42.4%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
5.2%

About this strategy

We trade Options and provide alerts though a discord group. We do Day, Swing and Leap options.

Volatility Long / Short

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021-59.7-59.7
2022155.94.223.1-7.6-21.4-10.1-4.0-3.8-7.60.00.00.082.9
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/21/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age57 months
What it tradesOptions, Futures
# Trades177
# Profitable75
% Profitable42.4%
Avg trade duration4.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown71.3%
drawdown periodDec 30, 2021 - Jan 03, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)-6.3%
Avg win$360
Avg loss$262

Ratios

W:L ratio1.01
Sharpe Ratio0.16
Sortino Ratio0.38
Calmar Ratio0.14

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life64.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-92.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-6.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity147.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.2%
Percent Trades Options0.8%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss97.5%
Chance of 20% account loss93.0%
Chance of 30% account loss88.0%
Chance of 40% account loss88.0%
Chance of 50% account loss75.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)69.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)57.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)35.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)12.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$262
Avg Win$360
# Winners75
Sum Trade PL (losers)$26,740
Sum Trade PL (winners)$26,994
Num Months Winners4
# Losers102
% Winners42.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table58

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5826.82
Avg Position Time (hrs)97.11
Avg Trade Length4
Last Trade Ago1430

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)82.94
Daily leverage (max)194.36

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta0.09
Treynor Index0.47

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-65.44
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.81
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.52
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.36
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.25
df11
t0.27
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.21
Sortino ratio0.56
Upside Potential Ratio2.33
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms10
N of observations12
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error10
t(b)-0.02
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.25
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-13.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.04
SD0.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.08
df11
t0.09
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio0.15
Upside Potential Ratio1.87
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.41
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms10
N of observations12
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.42
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error10
t(b)0.09
p(b)0.46
t(a)0.05
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.06
Treynor index (mean / b)1.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
Mean0.15
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.31
df281
t0.32
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.20
Sortino ratio0.50
Upside Potential Ratio5.54
Upside part of mean1.69
Downside part of mean-1.54
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms74
N negative terms208
N of observations282
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance0.01
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.25
DF error280
t(b)1.06
p(b)0.15
t(a)0.22
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.05
Treynor index (mean / b)1.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.03
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.06
df281
t0.07
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.95
Sortino ratio0.10
Upside Potential Ratio4.97
Upside part of mean1.62
Downside part of mean-1.59
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms74
N negative terms208
N of observations282
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance0.01
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error280
t(b)1.12
p(b)0.13
t(a)-0.02
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.92
Treynor index (mean / b)0.32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.11
SD0.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.23
df130
t-2.30
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-6.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-6.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Sortino ratio-3.29
Upside Potential Ratio0.70
Upside part of mean0.02
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.03
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms121
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.30
Mean of criterion-0.11
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0.03
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.11
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.34
p(b)0.48
t(a)-2.31
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-44.85
Jensen alpha (a)-0.11
Mean-0.11
SD0.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.23
df130
t-2.30
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-6.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-6.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Sortino ratio-3.29
Upside Potential Ratio0.69
Upside part of mean0.02
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.03
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms121
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.21
Mean of criterion-0.11
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0.03
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.33
p(b)0.48
t(a)-2.31
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-45.73
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations12
Minimum0.80
Quartile 10.97
Median1.00
Quartile 31
Maximum1.34
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.80
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.47
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.68
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations282
Minimum0.80
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low52
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high48
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-11.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.11
Median0.17
Quartile 30.22
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.44
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.32
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.44
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-520593952
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)4
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.30
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.19
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.01
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.61
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.61
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-16.77

Trading record

Placed 366 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AMZN2316F240 long1Jun 6, 2022Oct 5, 2022($73)
AMZN2216I250 long122May 2, 2022Sep 17, 2022($1,177)
ABNB2216U107 long1Sep 6, 2022Sep 17, 2022($253)
SPY2214I429 long1Sep 12, 2022Sep 15, 2022($8)
AAPL2226H167.5 long3Aug 26, 2022Aug 27, 2022($127)
AAPL2226T165 long6Aug 26, 2022Aug 26, 2022$171
SPY2215T419 long2Aug 11, 2022Aug 15, 2022($91)
SPY2217T420 long1Aug 12, 2022Aug 15, 2022($3)
SPY2215T426 long1Aug 12, 2022Aug 15, 2022($6)
SPY2222S390 long3Jul 20, 2022Jul 23, 2022($477)
FDX2215S200 long1Jun 23, 2022Jul 16, 2022($348)
SPY2215G376 long1Jul 14, 2022Jul 15, 2022$484
AMD2215G86 long1Jun 23, 2022Jun 24, 2022$151
AMZN2316F275 long20May 2, 2022Jun 23, 2022($508)
AAPL2227Q138 long1May 23, 2022May 28, 2022($130)
SPY2217F425 long1May 2, 2022May 23, 2022($819)
AAPL2213E165 long2May 5, 2022May 14, 2022($181)
AMZN2206E2430 long1May 5, 2022May 7, 2022($817)
TSLA2206E935 long1May 5, 2022May 7, 2022($66)
AAPL2206Q155 long1May 4, 2022May 5, 2022$15
SPY2204Q412 long3May 4, 2022May 5, 2022($499)
SPY2206E420 long1May 3, 2022May 4, 2022$505
SPY2206E410 long1May 2, 2022May 3, 2022$376
SPY2202E413 long1May 2, 2022May 2, 2022($31)
SPY2202E413 long2May 2, 2022May 2, 2022$97
AAPL2222P165 long10Apr 22, 2022Apr 22, 2022$285
AMZN2222D3030 long2Apr 22, 2022Apr 22, 2022($621)
SPY2213Q445 long1Apr 20, 2022Apr 21, 2022$76
SPY2222P445 long1Apr 20, 2022Apr 21, 2022($20)
MES M2short1Apr 20, 2022Apr 21, 2022($206)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.