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Velocity Viper

Futures · Futures · Started Nov 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-23.5%
Max Drawdown
75.8%
Trades
619
Win Trades
65.3%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
20.7%

About this strategy

This system trades the Micro E-mini S&P, Nasdaq, and DOW Futures. Strategy is designed using the following: 1) Supply and Demand 2) Trend Analysis 3) Proprietary Momentum Indicator 4) Commodity Channel Index 5) Institutional Grade Cycle Analysis Price Projection Software and 6) Fibonacci Calculations. Intraday, Daily, Weekly, and Monthly time frames are used.

Momentum Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202116.311.830.0
202220.31.03.210.122.2-28.414.910.0-0.519.1-0.711.5100.6
2023-4.5-3.1-5.73.3-39.7-54.50.00.00.00.00.00.0-75.3
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/11/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age58 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades619
# Profitable404
% Profitable65.3%
Avg trade duration17.5 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown75.8%
drawdown periodApril 26, 2023 - June 13, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)-23.5%
Avg win$280
Avg loss$547

Ratios

W:L ratio0.96
Sharpe Ratio-0.12
Sortino Ratio-0.15
Calmar Ratio-0.17

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.11
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life64.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-30.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-23.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-4.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity313.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss89.5%
Chance of 40% account loss70.5%
Chance of 50% account loss40.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)24.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)3.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)544
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)800
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)713

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$547
Avg Win$280
# Winners404
Sum Trade PL (losers)$117,517
Sum Trade PL (winners)$113,211
Num Months Winners12
# Losers215
% Winners65.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table58

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1052.95
Avg Position Time (hrs)17.55
Avg Trade Length0.70
Last Trade Ago1180

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.24
Daily leverage (max)21.10

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.23
Treynor Index0.06

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-24.53
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.73
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats82.97
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats81.70
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.16
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.39
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.22
SD0.75
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.28
df18
t0.37
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.84
Sortino ratio0.37
Upside Potential Ratio1.70
Upside part of mean1.02
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.60
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms7
N of observations19
Mean of predictor-0.04
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.75
Covariance-0.08
r-0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.46
DF error17
t(b)-2.19
p(b)0.79
t(a)0.31
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.30
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
Mean-0.18
SD1.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.17
df18
t-0.22
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.39
Sortino ratio-0.19
Upside Potential Ratio0.99
Upside part of mean0.94
Downside part of mean-1.12
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.94
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms7
N of observations19
Mean of predictor-0.06
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion1.05
Covariance-0.10
r-0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.29
Mean Square Error0.96
DF error17
t(b)-1.87
p(b)0.76
t(a)-0.38
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.29
VaR(95%)0.40
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.47
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
Mean-0.01
SD0.57
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.02
df425
t-0.02
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.52
Sortino ratio-0.02
Upside Potential Ratio5.74
Upside part of mean2.60
Downside part of mean-2.61
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms245
N negative terms181
N of observations426
Mean of predictor-0.04
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.57
Covariance-0.02
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.32
DF error424
t(b)-2.95
p(b)1.00
t(a)-0.06
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.84
Treynor index (mean / b)0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean-0.18
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.30
df425
t-0.39
p0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.24
Sortino ratio-0.36
Upside Potential Ratio5.24
Upside part of mean2.55
Downside part of mean-2.72
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.49
N nonnegative terms245
N negative terms181
N of observations426
Mean of predictor-0.06
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance-0.02
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.20
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error424
t(b)-2.84
p(b)1.00
t(a)-0.44
p(a)0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.70
Treynor index (mean / b)0.47
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-2.19
SD0.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.96
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.95
df130
t-2.10
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.15
Sortino ratio-3.33
Upside Potential Ratio3.19
Upside part of mean2.10
Downside part of mean-4.29
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.66
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms68
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion-2.19
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.74
Covariance-0.04
r-0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.95
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.71
Mean Square Error0.47
DF error129
t(b)-4.62
p(b)0.73
t(a)-1.75
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)1.13
Jensen alpha (a)-1.71
Mean-2.49
SD0.77
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.20
df130
t-2.27
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-6.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-6.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.40
Sortino ratio-3.50
Upside Potential Ratio2.87
Upside part of mean2.04
Downside part of mean-4.53
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.71
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms68
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-2.49
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.77
Covariance-0.04
r-0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.01
Mean Square Error0.52
DF error129
t(b)-4.55
p(b)0.73
t(a)-1.96
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.89
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)1.23
Jensen alpha (a)-2.01
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations19
Minimum0.32
Quartile 10.98
Median1.06
Quartile 31.16
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.75
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.11
Mean of quarter 41.21
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.32
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.39
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.24
Number of observations426
Minimum0.81
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low31
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.64
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum0.81
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.61
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.17
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.13
Median0.25
Quartile 30.48
Maximum0.71
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.25
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.71
Inter Quartile Range0.35
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations30
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.72
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.40
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.52
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)3.20
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.72
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.43
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.72
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-381961792
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)48
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.20
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.30
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.67
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.91
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.42
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.91
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.93

Trading record

Placed 4880 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ M3short87Apr 26, 2023Jun 13, 2023($39,610)
ES M3short1May 21, 2023May 21, 2023($21)
MNQ M3long5Apr 25, 2023Apr 25, 2023$641
MNQ M3short11Apr 21, 2023Apr 25, 2023$937
MNQ M3short14Apr 19, 2023Apr 20, 2023$2,445
MNQ M3short10Apr 17, 2023Apr 19, 2023$86
MNQ M3short22Apr 5, 2023Apr 14, 2023($385)
MNQ M3short4Apr 5, 2023Apr 5, 2023$837
MNQ M3short21Mar 26, 2023Apr 5, 2023($1,497)
MNQ M3short9.6Mar 19, 2023Mar 24, 2023$433
MNQ M3short2.4Mar 16, 2023Mar 17, 2023$318
MNQ M3long2Mar 15, 2023Mar 16, 2023$346
MNQ M3short6.4Mar 12, 2023Mar 15, 2023$231
MNQ M3short1.2Mar 10, 2023Mar 10, 2023$272
MNQ M3short3.2Mar 8, 2023Mar 10, 2023$1,082
MNQ H3short36.8Jan 19, 2023Mar 8, 2023($5,793)
MNQ H3short0.8Jan 19, 2023Jan 19, 2023($28)
MNQ H3short8.4Jan 15, 2023Jan 19, 2023$710
MNQ H3short2.8Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($482)
MNQ H3short2Jan 12, 2023Jan 13, 2023$284
MNQ H3short2.8Jan 11, 2023Jan 12, 2023$12
MNQ H3short2.8Jan 8, 2023Jan 9, 2023$60
MNQ H3long10.8Jan 4, 2023Jan 6, 2023$242
MNQ H3long2.4Jan 2, 2023Jan 4, 2023$137
MNQ H3long8Dec 27, 2022Dec 29, 2022($1)
MNQ H3short0.8Dec 23, 2022Dec 23, 2022$127
MNQ H3short0.4Dec 23, 2022Dec 23, 2022($15)
MNQ H3long2.4Dec 22, 2022Dec 22, 2022$172
MNQ H3short0.8Dec 22, 2022Dec 22, 2022($21)
MNQ H3short4Dec 21, 2022Dec 22, 2022$494

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.