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Hard Road

Futures · Futures · Started Nov 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
214
Win Trades
55.1%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
8.5%

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20217.133.142.6
202212.52.68.0-37.3-105.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-104.2
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/11/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$61,750
Age59 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades214
# Profitable118
% Profitable55.1%
Avg trade duration1.5 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodMay 10, 2022 - May 10, 2022
Cumul. Return-106.4%
Avg win$1,041
Avg loss$1,914

Ratios

W:L ratio0.67
Sharpe Ratio-1.89
Sortino Ratio-1.89
Calmar Ratio-1

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life64.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-91.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-1.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-64.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)677
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)985
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)853

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,914
Avg Win$1,041
# Winners118
Sum Trade PL (losers)$183,697
Sum Trade PL (winners)$122,805
Num Months Winners5
# Losers96
% Winners55.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table7

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)92
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.53
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago1582

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)21.74
Daily leverage (max)1050.89

Regression

Alpha0
Beta1.24
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-2.20
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.46
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats82.77
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats67.78
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.51
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.15
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.45

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.49
SD0.58
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.06
df4
t1.66
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.41
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean1.49
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0.67
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms0
N of observations5
Mean of predictor-0.12
Mean of criterion1.49
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.58
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.55
Mean Square Error0.44
DF error3
t(b)0.24
p(b)0.41
t(a)1.47
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-5.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.89
Treynor index (mean / b)3.51
Jensen alpha (a)1.55
Mean1.31
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.18
df4
t1.77
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.57
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean1.31
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0.57
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms0
N of observations5
Mean of predictor-0.13
Mean of criterion1.31
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.01
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.36
Mean Square Error0.30
DF error3
t(b)0.24
p(b)0.41
t(a)1.56
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.13
Treynor index (mean / b)3.79
Jensen alpha (a)1.36
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean-4.65
SD1.88
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.45
df129
t-1.74
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.34
Sortino ratio-2.48
Upside Potential Ratio0.95
Upside part of mean1.79
Downside part of mean-6.44
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD1.88
N nonnegative terms54
N negative terms76
N of observations130
Mean of predictor-0.34
Mean of criterion-4.65
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion1.88
Covariance0.05
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.48
Mean Square Error3.52
DF error128
t(b)1.46
p(b)0.44
t(a)-1.60
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-9.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.18
Jensen alpha (a)-4.27
Mean-10.11
SD4.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.21
df129
t-1.57
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.58
Sortino ratio-2.22
Upside Potential Ratio0.38
Upside part of mean1.75
Downside part of mean-11.86
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD4.56
N nonnegative terms54
N negative terms76
N of observations130
Mean of predictor-0.36
Mean of criterion-10.11
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion4.54
Covariance0.12
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.47
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-9.21
Mean Square Error20.52
DF error128
t(b)1.35
p(b)0.44
t(a)-1.42
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-22.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.58
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.09
Jensen alpha (a)-9.21
VaR(95%)0.39
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.46
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean-4.65
SD1.88
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.45
df129
t-1.74
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.34
Sortino ratio-2.48
Upside Potential Ratio0.95
Upside part of mean1.79
Downside part of mean-6.44
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD1.88
N nonnegative terms54
N negative terms76
N of observations130
Mean of predictor-0.34
Mean of criterion-4.65
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion1.88
Covariance0.05
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.27
Mean Square Error3.52
DF error128
t(b)1.46
p(b)0.44
t(a)-1.60
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-9.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.18
Jensen alpha (a)-4.27
Mean-10.11
SD4.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.21
df129
t-1.57
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.58
Sortino ratio-2.22
Upside Potential Ratio0.38
Upside part of mean1.75
Downside part of mean-11.86
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD4.56
N nonnegative terms54
N negative terms76
N of observations130
Mean of predictor-0.36
Mean of criterion-10.11
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion4.54
Covariance0.12
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.47
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-9.21
Mean Square Error20.52
DF error128
t(b)1.35
p(b)0.44
t(a)-1.42
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.15
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-22.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.58
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.09
Jensen alpha (a)-9.21
VaR(95%)0.39
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.46
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.04
Median1.05
Quartile 31.12
Maximum1.42
Mean of quarter 11.02
Mean of quarter 21.05
Mean of quarter 31.12
Mean of quarter 41.42
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.42
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations130
Minimum0.06
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low17
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.82
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations130
Minimum0.06
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low17
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.82
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.35
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high0.51
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.87
VaR(95%) (regression method)2.40
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.35
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high0.51
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.87
VaR(95%) (regression method)2.40
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-320529440
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.79
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.81
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal17.52
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.87
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.18
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.87
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.18

Trading record

Placed 401 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
RTY M2short5May 10, 2022May 10, 2022($830)
NQ M2short5May 10, 2022May 10, 2022($5,805)
NQ M2long2May 10, 2022May 10, 2022$494
NQ M2short2May 10, 2022May 10, 2022($6,016)
NQ M2long6May 10, 2022May 10, 2022$2,697
NQ M2short2May 9, 2022May 10, 2022($7,024)
NQ M2short1May 9, 2022May 9, 2022$2,022
NQ M2long4May 4, 2022May 5, 2022($32,162)
NQ M2long1May 4, 2022May 4, 2022($2,698)
NQ M2short1May 4, 2022May 4, 2022$499
NQ M2long5May 3, 2022May 3, 2022($9,960)
NQ M2short4May 3, 2022May 3, 2022$1,913
NQ M2long5May 3, 2022May 3, 2022($7,820)
NQ M2short2May 2, 2022May 2, 2022($2,459)
NQ M2short1May 2, 2022May 2, 2022($49)
NQ M2short2May 2, 2022May 2, 2022($1,223)
NQ M2short2May 1, 2022May 1, 2022($3,864)
NQ M2short5Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022$13
NQ M2long5Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022$1,485
NQ M2short5Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022$90
NQ M2long5Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022($4,867)
NQ M2short4Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022($134)
NQ M2short5Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022$3,230
NQ M2long5Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022($11,220)
NQ M2long5Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022($83)
NQ M2short4Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022($4,526)
NQ M2short4Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022$2,666
NQ M2long4Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022($2,818)
NQ M2short2Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022($1,622)
NQ M2long4Apr 29, 2022Apr 29, 2022($3,933)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.