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PegasiX

Futures · Started Jul 2021

Trades Own Strategy

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
7.0%
Max Drawdown
11.3%
Trades
264
Win Trades
39.8%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
33.3%

About this strategy

PegasiX trades mostly Micro and Emini S&P 500 futures with market or stop orders and always with stop losses. May trade other assets using futures if opportunities arise. The system will close losing positions quickly so win rate% may not be that high. The underlying strategy is a proprietary fractal analytical methodology which analyzes the price action to generate trading signals and is based on years of research and live trading. Trade duration can last from minutes to days.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20210.43.61.40.75.02.514.3
20220.41.311.43.81.7-2.00.36.10.10.4-0.00.125.3
20230.40.8-0.70.00.30.2-0.20.1-1.80.00.00.0-1.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/15/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age62 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades264
# Profitable105
% Profitable39.8%
Avg trade duration2.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown11.3%
drawdown periodJan 10, 2022 - March 08, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)7.0%
Avg win$828
Avg loss$372

Ratios

W:L ratio1.47
Sharpe Ratio0.60
Sortino Ratio1.06
Calmar Ratio2.30

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life75.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-33.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)7.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status1.7%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)8.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss8.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?186228
TOS percent50.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$372
Avg Win$828
# Winners105
Sum Trade PL (losers)$59,144
Sum Trade PL (winners)$86,935
Num Months Winners22
# Losers159
% Winners39.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table63

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)140.52
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.34
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago1071

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.22
Daily leverage (max)27.99

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.03
Treynor Index0.57

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades11.53
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.46
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.11
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.09

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.14
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.49
df31
t2.49
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.74
Sortino ratio9.39
Upside Potential Ratio11.08
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms16
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error30
t(b)-0.95
p(b)0.83
t(a)2.64
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.14
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.49
df31
t2.49
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.74
Sortino ratio9.01
Upside Potential Ratio10.70
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms16
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error30
t(b)-0.90
p(b)0.81
t(a)2.62
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.85
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.14
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.49
df710
t2.45
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.29
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.68
Sortino ratio2.76
Upside Potential Ratio6.06
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms580
N of observations711
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error709
t(b)1.42
p(b)0.08
t(a)2.37
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)6.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.14
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.45
df710
t2.39
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.64
Sortino ratio2.65
Upside Potential Ratio5.93
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms580
N of observations711
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error709
t(b)1.43
p(b)0.08
t(a)2.32
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)6.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.00
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6769381170216960
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.5896266184741e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations32
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations711
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low63
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high133
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-478387392
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)57
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)10.95
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs10.95
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.36
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.70
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 298 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MES Z3long4Sep 26, 2023Sep 26, 2023$79
MES Z3long2Sep 20, 2023Sep 20, 2023($452)
MES U3long2Sep 7, 2023Sep 7, 2023$71
MES U3long2Sep 7, 2023Sep 7, 2023($5)
MES U3long2Sep 7, 2023Sep 7, 2023($102)
MES U3long2Sep 6, 2023Sep 7, 2023($102)
MES U3long2Sep 6, 2023Sep 6, 2023($107)
MES U3long2Sep 6, 2023Sep 6, 2023($100)
MES U3long4Sep 5, 2023Sep 6, 2023($46)
MES U3long4Sep 1, 2023Sep 1, 2023($185)
MES U3long4Sep 1, 2023Sep 1, 2023($218)
MES U3long4Aug 29, 2023Aug 29, 2023$178
MES U3long4Aug 29, 2023Aug 29, 2023$37
MES U3long4Aug 28, 2023Aug 28, 2023($28)
MES U3long2Aug 28, 2023Aug 28, 2023$18
QMCL Q3long2Jun 23, 2023Jun 27, 2023$2
MES U3long1Jun 23, 2023Jun 23, 2023($76)
MES U3long2Jun 22, 2023Jun 23, 2023($153)
MES M3long3Jun 8, 2023Jun 9, 2023$529
MES M3long2May 17, 2023May 18, 2023$477
ES M3long1May 17, 2023May 17, 2023($21)
MES M3long2May 10, 2023May 10, 2023($155)
MES M3short1May 3, 2023May 3, 2023$65
MES M3long2Apr 27, 2023Apr 27, 2023$519
MES M3long3Apr 26, 2023Apr 26, 2023($233)
MES M3long1Apr 26, 2023Apr 26, 2023($76)
MES M3long2Apr 21, 2023Apr 21, 2023$58
MES M3long2Apr 13, 2023Apr 13, 2023$311
MES M3long2Apr 12, 2023Apr 12, 2023($157)
MES M3long1Apr 12, 2023Apr 12, 2023($73)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.