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TECL/TECS Trading Bot

Equity · Stocks · Started Sep 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.6%
Max Drawdown
39.7%
Trades
18
Win Trades
55.6%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
5.1%

About this strategy

This trading strategy is based on the notion that the Technology Select Sector Index tends to move for extended periods of time in bullish trends. It looks to take advantage of these trends by buying the 3X leveraged ETF (TECL) which attempts to return 3 times the daily movement of this index.

It's worth noting that during periods of strong uptrend, TECL will sometimes overheat. Back testing has shown that these overheated conditions will usually resolve themselves through corrective price action which can potentially provide more trading opportunities by taking profit during the overheated condition and re-entering the trade once the price action has returned to normalcy. In some very overheated conditions additional trading opportunities can be created by buying the inverse 3X ETF (TECS) which attempts to return 3 times the inverse daily movement of the Technology Select Sector Index.

I have written a bot based on specific rules that sends me trade signals based on the day's price action. The bot begins sending me signals at 3:40 and continues to send me updated signals every 5 minutes until market close.

NOTE: This strategy is very volatile and has the potential to see very large price swings from day to day.

If interested, please email sharedbraininvesting@gmail.com for back testing results going back to 2013.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021-8.518.011.625.451.1
2022-12.3-10.1-22.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-39.1
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/20/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age60 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades18
# Profitable10
% Profitable55.6%
Avg trade duration6.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown39.7%
drawdown periodJan 01, 2022 - March 07, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.6%
Avg win$2,498
Avg loss$3,292

Ratios

W:L ratio0.95
Sharpe Ratio-0.06
Sortino Ratio-0.08
Calmar Ratio-0.10

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.13
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life75.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-84.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity64.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss91.5%
Chance of 20% account loss74.0%
Chance of 30% account loss44.5%
Chance of 40% account loss15.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,292
Avg Win$2,498
# Winners10
Sum Trade PL (losers)$26,337
Sum Trade PL (winners)$24,979
Num Months Winners3
# Losers8
% Winners55.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table60

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8810.75
Avg Position Time (hrs)146.85
Avg Trade Length6.10
Last Trade Ago1637

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.91
Daily leverage (max)4.94

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.15
Treynor Index-0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.11
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.36
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.18
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.05
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-10.14
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.67
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.58
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.53
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.18
df10
t0.18
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.22
Sortino ratio0.27
Upside Potential Ratio1.69
Upside part of mean0.72
Downside part of mean-0.60
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.42
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms7
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.61
Covariance-0.01
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error9
t(b)-0.11
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.20
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.77
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean-0.07
SD0.65
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.10
df10
t-0.10
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.95
Sortino ratio-0.13
Upside Potential Ratio1.25
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.52
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms7
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.65
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.48
DF error9
t(b)-0.04
p(b)0.52
t(a)-0.07
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.67
Treynor index (mean / b)2.57
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.27
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.33
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
Mean0.03
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.07
df257
t0.07
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio0.09
Upside Potential Ratio5.55
Upside part of mean1.78
Downside part of mean-1.75
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms200
N of observations258
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.02
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error256
t(b)2.14
p(b)0.02
t(a)-0.14
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.80
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean-0.07
SD0.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.15
df257
t-0.15
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.82
Sortino ratio-0.20
Upside Potential Ratio5.23
Upside part of mean1.74
Downside part of mean-1.80
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms200
N of observations258
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.44
Covariance0.02
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error256
t(b)2.13
p(b)0.02
t(a)-0.33
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.72
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.43
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.00
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6814645293678592
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.75523707636091e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.64
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.82
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.73
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.50
Number of observations258
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low46
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high58
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.17
Quartile 10.22
Median0.27
Quartile 30.32
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.17
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.11
Median0.15
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.15
Mean of quarter 30.21
Mean of quarter 40.38
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.38
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-426794208
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)65
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.12
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.68
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 39 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TECL long743Mar 2, 2022Mar 7, 2022($7,291)
TECS long1124Feb 24, 2022Mar 2, 2022($5,971)
TECL long892Feb 22, 2022Feb 22, 2022($645)
TECS long1263Feb 15, 2022Feb 18, 2022$4,478
TECL long717Feb 10, 2022Feb 11, 2022($1,668)
TECL long662Jan 14, 2022Feb 9, 2022($1,105)
TECL long580Jan 13, 2022Jan 13, 2022($755)
TECL long545Jan 10, 2022Jan 13, 2022$5,391
TECL long516Jan 4, 2022Jan 7, 2022($7,030)
TECL long500Dec 13, 2021Dec 27, 2021$2,390
TECL long487Dec 9, 2021Dec 10, 2021$2,124
TECL long524Dec 3, 2021Dec 6, 2021$1,750
TECL long466Nov 30, 2021Dec 1, 2021$1,627
TECL long484Nov 10, 2021Nov 26, 2021$663
TECL long478Oct 29, 2021Nov 4, 2021$3,819
TECL long500Oct 7, 2021Oct 18, 2021$2,408
TECL long530Sep 30, 2021Oct 1, 2021$250
TECL long530Sep 20, 2021Sep 30, 2021($1,913)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.