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Nifty India Defunct

Futures · Started Jul 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
20.3%
Max Drawdown
22.0%
Trades
462
Win Trades
32.3%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
22.6%

About this strategy

Update mid 2023 - System can not trade Nifty Index Futures as this is not available on SGX anymore. Will be reset for making space for a new system. Stay Tuned!

Trades SGX Indian Nifty futures both long and short. Leverage employed to be around 5 times. Runs 5 different sub strategies - both intra-day and swing - in an attempt to smooth out the equity curve. In addition to being an top performing system by itself, this system would be an excellent choice for your strategy diversification into emerging markets in case you already have some strategies subscribed to. Please note that you need to enable trading permission for Singapore exchange. ( It is possible on IB which is where I trade the system - please check your individual brokerage if they provide trading on SIMEX)

Note that C2 has an outage with IB for approx 1 hour from midnight EST, which is an active hour for the Indian Market. System dynamics are affected during this hour. I have addressed this here - https://forums.collective2.com/t/trading-during-0000-0108-est/15205

update : system rescaled by 70% on 11/04/2022. Nevertheless, trading will happen with same number of contracts. (max 9 nifty contracts at any given time)

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021-2.021.67.25.12.94.644.5
2022-2.9-8.912.05.33.3-15.717.6-1.3-0.2-0.53.6-7.00.8
2023-5.1-2.80.6-2.36.16.2-0.2-0.11.10.00.00.02.9
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/2/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age63 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades462
# Profitable149
% Profitable32.3%
Avg trade duration8.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown22.0%
drawdown periodMay 18, 2022 - May 25, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)20.3%
Avg win$834
Avg loss$288

Ratios

W:L ratio1.38
Sharpe Ratio0.38
Sortino Ratio0.79
Calmar Ratio2.20

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.14
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life75.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)47.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)20.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)14.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity9.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss10.5%
Chance of 20% account loss1.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)789
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)650

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$288
Avg Win$834
# Winners149
Sum Trade PL (losers)$90,223
Sum Trade PL (winners)$124,231
Num Months Winners14
# Losers313
% Winners32.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table62

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)519.58
Avg Position Time (hrs)8.66
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago1095

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.75
Daily leverage (max)16.72

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.14
Treynor Index0.14

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.90
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.28
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats57.91
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats89.67
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.86
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.92
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.35
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.32
df24
t1.97
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.73
Sortino ratio2.93
Upside Potential Ratio4.49
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms10
N of observations25
Mean of predictor-0.00
Mean of criterion0.35
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.35
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error23
t(b)2.21
p(b)0.02
t(a)2.13
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.69
Treynor index (mean / b)0.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.35
Mean0.31
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.23
df24
t1.83
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.63
Sortino ratio2.51
Upside Potential Ratio4.05
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms10
N of observations25
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error23
t(b)2.20
p(b)0.02
t(a)2.03
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.65
Treynor index (mean / b)0.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.32
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.57
df566
t2.32
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.91
Sortino ratio3.53
Upside Potential Ratio12.47
Upside part of mean1.14
Downside part of mean-0.82
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms190
N negative terms377
N of observations567
Mean of predictor0.00
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error565
t(b)4.40
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.35
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.59
Treynor index (mean / b)1.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
Mean0.30
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.50
df566
t2.20
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.83
Sortino ratio3.28
Upside Potential Ratio12.19
Upside part of mean1.13
Downside part of mean-0.83
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms190
N negative terms377
N of observations567
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error565
t(b)4.41
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.26
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)1.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.20
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.30
df130
t0.92
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.07
Sortino ratio2.82
Upside Potential Ratio11.08
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.58
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms98
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)1.27
p(b)0.43
t(a)0.79
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.59
Treynor index (mean / b)1.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
Mean0.19
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.24
df130
t0.88
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.01
Sortino ratio2.64
Upside Potential Ratio10.89
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-0.58
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms98
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)1.25
p(b)0.43
t(a)0.76
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)1.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations25
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.99
Median1.04
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations567
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high57
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high20
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.07
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations30
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.00
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-357296672
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)372
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.49
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.40
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.57
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.48
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.39
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal16.14
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.80
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.15

Trading record

Placed 482 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MES U3short10Sep 6, 2023Sep 6, 2023$1,163
MNQ U3short10Sep 6, 2023Sep 6, 2023$2,271
MES U3short10Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023$488
NQ U3long1Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023($403)
MNQ U3short10Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023($1,164)
MNQ U3short10Sep 4, 2023Sep 4, 2023($264)
MES U3short10Sep 4, 2023Sep 4, 2023($62)
NQ U3long1Sep 4, 2023Sep 4, 2023($1,073)
ES U3long1Sep 4, 2023Sep 4, 2023($408)
IN N3long8Jun 28, 2023Jun 30, 2023$1,451
IN M3long17Jun 27, 2023Jun 28, 2023$1,931
IN M3short3Jun 23, 2023Jun 23, 2023($9)
IN M3short3Jun 22, 2023Jun 23, 2023($162)
IN M3short3Jun 22, 2023Jun 22, 2023($207)
IN M3long3Jun 21, 2023Jun 21, 2023($300)
IN M3long3Jun 20, 2023Jun 20, 2023($207)
IN M3short3Jun 19, 2023Jun 20, 2023($24)
IN M3short3Jun 19, 2023Jun 19, 2023($213)
IN M3long11Jun 16, 2023Jun 18, 2023$1,305
IN M3short3Jun 15, 2023Jun 15, 2023$138
IN M3long11Jun 15, 2023Jun 15, 2023($941)
IN M3long11Jun 14, 2023Jun 14, 2023($157)
IN M3long14Jun 12, 2023Jun 14, 2023$239
IN M3short3Jun 9, 2023Jun 9, 2023($195)
IN M3short3Jun 8, 2023Jun 8, 2023($9)
IN M3long11Jun 6, 2023Jun 8, 2023$1,429
IN M3short3Jun 6, 2023Jun 6, 2023($183)
IN M3long11Jun 2, 2023Jun 5, 2023($737)
IN M3short3Jun 1, 2023Jun 1, 2023($75)
IN M3short3May 30, 2023May 31, 2023$60

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.