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Wave Chaos

Equity · Stocks · Started Jun 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.7%
Max Drawdown
64.5%
Trades
88
Win Trades
37.5%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
14.1%

About this strategy

Martingale or a variant is not used.
A stop loss and take profit are set for each trade.Then I watch where the price will go - take or loss.I try to take trades with a loss/profit ratio of at least 1/3. If I got a good profit, I can close the trade without waiting for take profit.
Algorithmic trading is not used.Trading is done manually.
I'm using simplified Elliott wave analysis. Entry into the trade occurs in an impulse wave on a pullback in the direction of the trend.Sometimes there are trades against the trend.
The frequency of trades approximately is 5-20 in month.
Transaction duration: from several days to several weeks.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20218.35.010.310.12.64.49.461.8
20229.5-22.1-6.1-17.47.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-28.9
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/22/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age63 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades88
# Profitable33
% Profitable37.5%
Avg trade duration5.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown64.5%
drawdown periodJan 21, 2022 - May 11, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)2.7%
Avg win$1,080
Avg loss$536

Ratios

W:L ratio1.21
Sharpe Ratio0.14
Sortino Ratio0.22
Calmar Ratio0.29

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.15
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life79.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-66.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity54.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss81.5%
Chance of 20% account loss62.5%
Chance of 30% account loss37.5%
Chance of 40% account loss15.0%
Chance of 50% account loss9.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$536
Avg Win$1,080
# Winners33
Sum Trade PL (losers)$29,504
Sum Trade PL (winners)$35,651
Num Months Winners9
# Losers55
% Winners37.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct2

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table64

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7315.52
Avg Position Time (hrs)121.93
Avg Trade Length5.10
Last Trade Ago1583

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.58
Daily leverage (max)3.02

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.27
Treynor Index0.05

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.28
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades16.07
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.16
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.57
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.77
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.23
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.47
df15
t0.58
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.18
Sortino ratio0.86
Upside Potential Ratio2.20
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms9
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error14
t(b)0.07
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.50
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.14
Treynor index (mean / b)8.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
Mean0.13
SD0.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.28
df15
t0.34
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.98
Sortino ratio0.44
Upside Potential Ratio1.75
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms9
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.44
Covariance0.01
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error14
t(b)0.25
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.24
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.99
Treynor index (mean / b)1.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean0.26
SD0.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df363
t0.58
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.16
Sortino ratio0.78
Upside Potential Ratio6.39
Upside part of mean2.12
Downside part of mean-1.86
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms93
N negative terms271
N of observations364
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.53
Covariance0.03
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error362
t(b)2.93
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.34
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)1.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.13
SD0.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.24
df363
t0.29
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio0.36
Upside Potential Ratio5.87
Upside part of mean2.05
Downside part of mean-1.92
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms93
N negative terms271
N of observations364
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.52
Covariance0.03
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error362
t(b)3.01
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.06
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.44
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.33
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6768522713628672
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.57907695148774e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations16
Minimum0.74
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.37
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.80
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-4.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.34
Number of observations364
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low88
Percentage of outliers low0.24
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high86
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.35
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.35
Inter Quartile Range0.17
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.58
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.58
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.91
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.35
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-457141248
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)110
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.49
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.49
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.78
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.69
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.62
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 66 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
OPEN long6570Apr 7, 2022May 13, 2022($290)
LYFT long654Feb 10, 2022Apr 7, 2022($4,654)
MGM long670Feb 10, 2022Apr 7, 2022($5,527)
PAA long1500Feb 14, 2022Feb 22, 2022($1,191)
DISH short1123Feb 4, 2022Feb 9, 2022($152)
COLD short1375Feb 4, 2022Feb 8, 2022($523)
IOVA short833Feb 4, 2022Feb 7, 2022($506)
BFLY short2395Feb 4, 2022Feb 7, 2022($508)
PSTG short1000Feb 4, 2022Feb 4, 2022($565)
PLUG short550Feb 4, 2022Feb 4, 2022($422)
HBI short2200Feb 3, 2022Feb 3, 2022($677)
FOLD short1300Jan 12, 2022Jan 21, 2022$590
SHO short1025Jan 11, 2022Jan 21, 2022$576
MOS short340Jan 11, 2022Jan 21, 2022($45)
TPR short690Jan 13, 2022Jan 20, 2022$1,287
ALIT short1350Jan 12, 2022Jan 18, 2022$1,190
NKLA short836Jan 11, 2022Jan 11, 2022($406)
MGM short253Jan 10, 2022Jan 11, 2022($240)
LYFT short356Jan 7, 2022Jan 11, 2022($443)
IOVA short500Jan 3, 2022Jan 10, 2022$1,917
AR short520Jan 6, 2022Jan 7, 2022($427)
BOX long342Dec 20, 2021Dec 21, 2021($130)
DVN short571Dec 16, 2021Dec 17, 2021$1,445
OXY short800Dec 16, 2021Dec 17, 2021$1,659
HUN short975Dec 15, 2021Dec 16, 2021($61)
CNK short1250Dec 16, 2021Dec 16, 2021$371
AR short1080Dec 15, 2021Dec 16, 2021($464)
MGNI short735Dec 14, 2021Dec 16, 2021($494)
PLTR long974Dec 13, 2021Dec 13, 2021($292)
CFG long430Dec 9, 2021Dec 13, 2021($296)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.