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YM nqTrader

Futures · Futures · Started May 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
590
Win Trades
58.0%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
10.8%

About this strategy

mainly trade mini NQ and MNQ

Momentum Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202110.68.76.0-3.911.87.3-3.622.874.1
202210.0-12.6-102.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-102.6
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/18/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$22,413
Age65 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades590
# Profitable342
% Profitable58.0%
Avg trade duration8.0 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodMarch 14, 2022 - March 28, 2022
Cumul. Return-105.1%
Avg win$364
Avg loss$580

Ratios

W:L ratio0.87
Sharpe Ratio-1.24
Sortino Ratio-1.26
Calmar Ratio-0.81

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.18
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life85.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-115.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-1.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-31.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)52.5%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated96.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)568
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)942
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)747

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$580
Avg Win$364
# Winners342
Sum Trade PL (losers)$143,919
Sum Trade PL (winners)$124,506
Num Months Winners7
# Losers248
% Winners58.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table11

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)477.55
Avg Position Time (hrs)7.96
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago1622

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)6.75
Daily leverage (max)106.30

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-2.38
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.08
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.53
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.41
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats63.25
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats65.28
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.65
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.20
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.28

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.79
SD1.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.59
df9
t-0.59
p0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.57
Sortino ratio-0.70
Upside Potential Ratio0.77
Upside part of mean0.86
Downside part of mean-1.65
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD1.12
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms2
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion-0.79
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion1.21
Covariance0.02
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.93
Mean Square Error1.61
DF error8
t(b)0.43
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.65
p(a)0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta13.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.37
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.38
Jensen alpha (a)-0.93
Mean-2.84
SD2.77
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.94
df9
t-0.93
p0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.25
Sortino ratio-1.04
Upside Potential Ratio0.30
Upside part of mean0.81
Downside part of mean-3.65
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD2.74
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms2
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion-2.84
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion2.77
Covariance0.01
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.89
Mean Square Error8.65
DF error8
t(b)0.06
p(b)0.48
t(a)-0.87
p(a)0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-24.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta26.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-10.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.73
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.00
Jensen alpha (a)-2.89
VaR(95%)0.79
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.84
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.39
Mean-0.59
SD1.67
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.36
df228
t-0.33
p0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.74
Sortino ratio-0.45
Upside Potential Ratio3.10
Upside part of mean4.05
Downside part of mean-4.64
Upside SD1.02
Downside SD1.31
N nonnegative terms122
N negative terms107
N of observations229
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion-0.59
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion1.67
Covariance-0.02
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.35
Mean Square Error2.77
DF error227
t(b)-1.01
p(b)0.84
t(a)-0.29
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.99
Treynor index (mean / b)0.81
Jensen alpha (a)-0.52
Mean-2.33
SD2.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.15
df228
t-1.08
p0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Sortino ratio-1.27
Upside Potential Ratio1.99
Upside part of mean3.64
Downside part of mean-5.97
Upside SD0.85
Downside SD1.83
N nonnegative terms122
N negative terms107
N of observations229
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion-2.33
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion2.01
Covariance-0.04
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.54
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.20
Mean Square Error4.02
DF error227
t(b)-1.76
p(b)0.96
t(a)-1.03
p(a)0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.51
Jensen alpha (a)-2.20
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean-1.74
SD2.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.79
df130
t-0.56
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.99
Sortino ratio-1.00
Upside Potential Ratio3.49
Upside part of mean6.04
Downside part of mean-7.78
Upside SD1.35
Downside SD1.73
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion-1.74
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion2.20
Covariance-0.03
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.67
Mean Square Error4.83
DF error129
t(b)-0.86
p(b)0.55
t(a)-0.54
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.48
Treynor index (mean / b)1.89
Jensen alpha (a)-1.67
Mean-4.76
SD2.65
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.78
df130
t-1.27
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.00
Sortino ratio-1.97
Upside Potential Ratio2.21
Upside part of mean5.34
Downside part of mean-10.10
Upside SD1.11
Downside SD2.42
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion-4.76
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion2.65
Covariance-0.06
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.95
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.65
Mean Square Error6.97
DF error129
t(b)-1.51
p(b)0.58
t(a)-1.24
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.49
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.74
Treynor index (mean / b)2.45
Jensen alpha (a)-4.65
VaR(95%)0.25
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.30
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.09
Quartile 11.01
Median1.06
Quartile 31.13
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.55
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.09
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.31
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.24
Number of observations229
Minimum0.37
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.66
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high37
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum0.37
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.66
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low21
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.82
Number of outliers high28
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.84
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.62

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.95
Median0.95
Quartile 30.95
Maximum0.95
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.97
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.52
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.75
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.97
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.52
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.97
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.46
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)5.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)6.56
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-343590976
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)14
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.94
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.12
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.99
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.90
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.93
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-3.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.87
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.81
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.99
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.92
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.32

Trading record

Placed 756 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
M2K M2long5Mar 28, 2022Mar 29, 2022$1,417
M2K M2short5Mar 25, 2022Mar 25, 2022($120)
MNQ M2long4Mar 25, 2022Mar 25, 2022($1,234)
M2K M2long2Mar 25, 2022Mar 25, 2022($139)
MNQ M2short4Mar 25, 2022Mar 25, 2022$18
MNQ M2long5Mar 24, 2022Mar 24, 2022($192)
MNQ M2short4Mar 23, 2022Mar 23, 2022$232
MNQ M2long2Mar 21, 2022Mar 23, 2022$837
NQ H2long2Mar 14, 2022Mar 14, 2022($5,071)
NQ H2short2Mar 14, 2022Mar 14, 2022($4,896)
NQ H2long2Mar 10, 2022Mar 10, 2022($3,324)
NQ H2long6Mar 9, 2022Mar 9, 2022($5,808)
RTY H2long4Mar 9, 2022Mar 9, 2022($1,822)
NQ H2short4Mar 9, 2022Mar 9, 2022($4,298)
RTY H2short2Mar 9, 2022Mar 9, 2022($876)
RTY H2short4Mar 9, 2022Mar 9, 2022($2,537)
ES H2short4Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022($4,415)
RTY H2short4Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022($3,207)
RTY H2long10Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022($6,293)
RTY H2short4Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022($3,015)
RTY H2short4Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022($32)
RTY H2short4Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022($252)
RTY H2short2Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022$274
RTY H2short4Mar 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022$2,663
RTY H2short2Mar 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022($1,626)
NQ H2short2.72Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022$7,500
RTY H2short2.72Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022$2,415
RTY H2short2.72Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022($537)
NQ H2short2.72Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022($803)
NQ H2short3.4Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022$1,564

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.