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YM COM ES

Futures · Futures · Started May 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
51.6%
Max Drawdown
24.4%
Trades
612
Win Trades
56.4%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
12.3%

About this strategy

This strategy mainly trade commodity in COMEX, NYMEX, CBOT, CME.

Trend-following Commodities

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202114.41.414.8-4.39.08.02.6-2.550.1
20224.514.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.020.1
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/17/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$29,969
Age64 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades612
# Profitable345
% Profitable56.4%
Avg trade duration8.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown24.4%
drawdown periodFeb 06, 2022 - Feb 22, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)51.6%
Avg win$306
Avg loss$279

Ratios

W:L ratio1.41
Sharpe Ratio0.52
Sortino Ratio1.28
Calmar Ratio3.02

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life83.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)89.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)51.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.5%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)14.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss11.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated98.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)289
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$279
Avg Win$306
# Winners345
Sum Trade PL (losers)$74,622
Sum Trade PL (winners)$105,439
Num Months Winners8
# Losers267
% Winners56.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table65

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)492.80
Avg Position Time (hrs)8.21
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago1651

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.85
Daily leverage (max)63.58

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.03
Treynor Index0.90

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.51
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.03
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats59.32
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats72.92
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.83
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.18
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.28

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.55
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.66
df15
t2.02
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.46
Sortino ratio9.02
Upside Potential Ratio10.27
Upside part of mean0.63
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms8
N of observations16
Mean of predictor-0.10
Mean of criterion0.55
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.03
r0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.63
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error14
t(b)1.94
p(b)0.27
t(a)2.47
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.72
Jensen alpha (a)0.63
Mean0.50
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.64
df15
t2.00
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.44
Sortino ratio7.90
Upside Potential Ratio9.13
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms8
N of observations16
Mean of predictor-0.12
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.03
r0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.58
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error14
t(b)1.97
p(b)0.27
t(a)2.50
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.08
Treynor index (mean / b)0.72
Jensen alpha (a)0.58
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.52
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.80
df358
t2.11
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.48
Sortino ratio4.21
Upside Potential Ratio7.20
Upside part of mean0.90
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms113
N negative terms246
N of observations359
Mean of predictor-0.09
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.39
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error357
t(b)1.00
p(b)0.16
t(a)2.14
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)6.73
Jensen alpha (a)0.53
Mean0.49
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.76
df358
t2.07
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.44
Sortino ratio3.70
Upside Potential Ratio6.62
Upside part of mean0.87
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms113
N negative terms246
N of observations359
Mean of predictor-0.11
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.49
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error357
t(b)1.02
p(b)0.15
t(a)2.10
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.96
Treynor index (mean / b)6.44
Jensen alpha (a)0.49
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.36
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.40
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6835529035284480
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.62784977604589e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations16
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations359
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.25
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low37
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high71
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.92
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.03
Median0.04
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations24
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-470637184
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)16
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.77
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.69
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)10.62
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs10.62
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.70
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.74
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.67
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs12.54
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal20.57
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 607 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES H2short2Feb 24, 2022Feb 24, 2022$884
XG H2short2Feb 23, 2022Feb 23, 2022$7,478
XG H2short1.8Feb 23, 2022Feb 23, 2022$1,156
XG H2short1.8Feb 23, 2022Feb 23, 2022$3,471
ES H2short1.8Feb 23, 2022Feb 23, 2022$1,111
ES H2short1.8Feb 23, 2022Feb 23, 2022$144
RTY H2short1.8Feb 23, 2022Feb 23, 2022$166
RTY H2short1.8Feb 23, 2022Feb 23, 2022($104)
XG H2short1.8Feb 22, 2022Feb 22, 2022$1,312
ES H2long3.6Feb 22, 2022Feb 22, 2022$1,400
RTY H2short4.5Feb 22, 2022Feb 22, 2022$1,575
ES H2short1.8Feb 22, 2022Feb 22, 2022$121
ES H2short1.8Feb 22, 2022Feb 22, 2022($667)
RTY H2short1.8Feb 22, 2022Feb 22, 2022($14)
XG H2short1.8Feb 22, 2022Feb 22, 2022$2,528
XG H2short1.8Feb 22, 2022Feb 22, 2022$6,213
XG H2short2.7Feb 22, 2022Feb 22, 2022$3,742
RTY H2short1.8Feb 18, 2022Feb 18, 2022($221)
RTY H2short9Feb 17, 2022Feb 17, 2022$176
RTY H2short12.6Feb 17, 2022Feb 17, 2022$151
RTY H2short12.6Feb 17, 2022Feb 17, 2022$2,055
RTY H2short7.2Feb 14, 2022Feb 14, 2022($5,908)
RTY H2long7.2Feb 14, 2022Feb 14, 2022($5,543)
ES H2short3.6Feb 14, 2022Feb 14, 2022($2,590)
ES H2long3.6Feb 14, 2022Feb 14, 2022($2,110)
RTY H2long3.6Feb 14, 2022Feb 14, 2022($721)
ES H2short5.4Feb 14, 2022Feb 14, 2022($1,536)
ES H2short3.6Feb 14, 2022Feb 14, 2022($1,494)
ES H2short3.6Feb 14, 2022Feb 14, 2022($2,246)
ES H2short1.8Feb 14, 2022Feb 14, 2022$361

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.