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T StarMNQ

Futures · Futures · Started May 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
40.6%
Max Drawdown
74.5%
Trades
432
Win Trades
63.0%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
10.9%

About this strategy

mainly intra-day trading ES and NQ during opening time in USA market

Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20218.05.521.12.41.49.11.80.059.1
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/17/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$34,155
Age64 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades432
# Profitable272
% Profitable63.0%
Avg trade duration8.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown74.5%
drawdown periodOct 01, 2021 - Oct 11, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)40.6%
Avg win$449
Avg loss$589

Ratios

W:L ratio1.30
Sharpe Ratio0.32
Sortino Ratio0.49
Calmar Ratio0.61

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life83.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)65.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)40.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss54.5%
Chance of 20% account loss38.0%
Chance of 30% account loss22.0%
Chance of 40% account loss8.5%
Chance of 50% account loss3.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated97.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)417
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$589
Avg Win$449
# Winners272
Sum Trade PL (losers)$94,246
Sum Trade PL (winners)$122,076
Num Months Winners7
# Losers160
% Winners63.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table64

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)492.13
Avg Position Time (hrs)8.20
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago1763

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)9.48
Daily leverage (max)234.67

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta0.01
Treynor Index3.21

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.11
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-2.60
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.12
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.17
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats68.18
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.70
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.20
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.38

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.46
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.44
df15
t1.75
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.21
Sortino ratio33.22
Upside Potential Ratio35.52
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms12
N of observations16
Mean of predictor-0.07
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.02
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.50
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error14
t(b)1.43
p(b)0.32
t(a)1.95
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.04
Treynor index (mean / b)0.79
Jensen alpha (a)0.50
Mean0.41
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.45
df15
t1.76
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.22
Sortino ratio29.85
Upside Potential Ratio32.15
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms12
N of observations16
Mean of predictor-0.08
Mean of criterion0.41
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.02
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error14
t(b)1.43
p(b)0.32
t(a)1.99
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.94
Treynor index (mean / b)0.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.70
SD0.75
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.94
df349
t1.09
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.64
Sortino ratio1.48
Upside Potential Ratio3.06
Upside part of mean1.46
Downside part of mean-0.75
Upside SD0.58
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms75
N negative terms275
N of observations350
Mean of predictor-0.06
Mean of criterion0.70
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.75
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.53
Mean Square Error0.56
DF error348
t(b)0.33
p(b)0.37
t(a)1.09
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.99
Treynor index (mean / b)10.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.71
Mean0.41
SD0.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.52
df349
t0.60
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.22
Sortino ratio0.68
Upside Potential Ratio2.18
Upside part of mean1.32
Downside part of mean-0.91
Upside SD0.50
Downside SD0.61
N nonnegative terms75
N negative terms275
N of observations350
Mean of predictor-0.08
Mean of criterion0.41
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.79
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41
Mean Square Error0.62
DF error348
t(b)0.15
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.61
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.75
Treynor index (mean / b)12.89
Jensen alpha (a)0.41
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.28
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.31
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6845886885789696
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.76623114730854e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations16
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.28
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.59
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations350
Minimum0.56
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.46
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low38
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high76
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.60
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.66
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-306035040
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)10
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.60
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.55
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)38.42
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.66
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.60
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.55
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.88
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 354 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NQ Z1long2Nov 2, 2021Nov 2, 2021$84
RTY Z1long2Nov 2, 2021Nov 2, 2021$384
RTY Z1long1Nov 1, 2021Nov 1, 2021$492
NQ Z1long1Oct 18, 2021Oct 18, 2021$1,722
BD Z1short10Oct 18, 2021Oct 18, 2021$1,460
BX Z1short4Oct 18, 2021Oct 18, 2021$477
DXM Z1short10Oct 18, 2021Oct 18, 2021$2,467
XG Z1short1Oct 18, 2021Oct 18, 2021$1,352
NQ Z1long19.8Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$2,020
NQ Z1short7.92Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021($1,449)
NQ Z1long9.9Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021($59)
NQ Z1short9.9Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021($1,851)
NQ Z1long7.92Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$254
NQ Z1short3.96Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021($468)
NQ Z1long9.9Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$99
EX Z1short19.8Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$324
XG Z1short0.99Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$250
DXM Z1short9.9Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$415
BD Z1short19.8Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$1,242
NQ Z1long9.9Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021($3,069)
NQ Z1long1.98Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$479
BX Z1short0.99Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$61
BD Z1short10.89Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$166
BD Z1long5.94Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021($25)
EX Z1short19.602Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$2,405
XG Z1short0.98Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$929
DXM Z1short9.801Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$1,785
BX Z1short0.98Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$288
BD Z1short7.841Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$324
BX Z1short0.98Oct 15, 2021Oct 15, 2021$37

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.