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Star sp500

Futures · Started Apr 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-3.6%
Max Drawdown
36.7%
Trades
255
Win Trades
57.3%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
12.3%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021-0.6-0.58.0-1.3-0.55.64.25.3-1.420.2
20223.1-4.714.09.40.6-35.50.00.00.00.00.00.0-20.4
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/23/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$45,000
Age65 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades255
# Profitable146
% Profitable57.3%
Avg trade duration10.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown36.7%
drawdown periodMay 26, 2022 - June 16, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)-3.6%
Avg win$414
Avg loss$533

Ratios

W:L ratio1.04
Sharpe Ratio-0.07
Sortino Ratio-0.09
Calmar Ratio0.10

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life82.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)2.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-3.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity55.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss68.5%
Chance of 20% account loss30.0%
Chance of 30% account loss5.5%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated86.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)476
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)778
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)486

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$533
Avg Win$414
# Winners146
Sum Trade PL (losers)$58,091
Sum Trade PL (winners)$60,394
Num Months Winners8
# Losers109
% Winners57.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table65

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)634.72
Avg Position Time (hrs)10.58
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago1531

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.34
Daily leverage (max)14.79

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.08
Treynor Index-0.05

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades0
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.10
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.25
df13
t0.28
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.06
Sortino ratio0.32
Upside Potential Ratio1.44
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms5
N of observations14
Mean of predictor-0.10
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.02
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.79
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error12
t(b)1.31
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.50
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.94
Treynor index (mean / b)0.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.02
SD0.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.04
df13
t0.05
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.86
Sortino ratio0.05
Upside Potential Ratio1.14
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.41
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms5
N of observations14
Mean of predictor-0.11
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.44
Covariance0.03
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error12
t(b)1.37
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.30
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.99
Treynor index (mean / b)0.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean0.08
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.22
df314
t0.25
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.01
Sortino ratio0.30
Upside Potential Ratio4.29
Upside part of mean1.10
Downside part of mean-1.02
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms92
N negative terms223
N of observations315
Mean of predictor-0.07
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error313
t(b)2.52
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.30
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.70
Treynor index (mean / b)0.31
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.02
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.05
df314
t0.06
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.84
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio3.95
Upside part of mean1.07
Downside part of mean-1.05
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms92
N negative terms223
N of observations315
Mean of predictor-0.09
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error313
t(b)2.79
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.13
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.66
Treynor index (mean / b)0.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.32
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.64
df130
t-0.45
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.14
Sortino ratio-0.83
Upside Potential Ratio3.79
Upside part of mean1.45
Downside part of mean-1.77
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms97
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.37
Mean of criterion-0.32
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance0.02
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.20
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error129
t(b)1.99
p(b)0.39
t(a)-0.28
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.17
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.99
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
Mean-0.44
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.87
df130
t-0.62
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio-1.08
Upside Potential Ratio3.45
Upside part of mean1.41
Downside part of mean-1.85
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms97
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.41
Mean of criterion-0.44
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance0.03
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.30
Mean Square Error0.25
DF error129
t(b)2.18
p(b)0.38
t(a)-0.42
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.24
Jensen alpha (a)-0.30
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.67
Quartile 10.99
Median1.02
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.67
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.88
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations315
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low54
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high63
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low25
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high28
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.34
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.34
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.49
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.09
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.34
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.34
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-310967200
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)21
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.15
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.21
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.08
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.34
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.53
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.31

Trading record

Placed 239 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MES M2long14Jun 10, 2022Jun 17, 2022($23,003)
MNQ M2short13Jun 9, 2022Jun 9, 2022$1,537
QGC Q2long1Jun 9, 2022Jun 9, 2022($1,238)
TY U2short4Jun 8, 2022Jun 9, 2022($34)
QGC Q2long1Jun 6, 2022Jun 8, 2022($1,003)
SF M2short2Jun 1, 2022Jun 1, 2022$72
QSI N2long1May 26, 2022May 27, 2022$580
QGC M2long1May 24, 2022May 24, 2022$32
MES M2long5May 20, 2022May 20, 2022$919
QGC M2long1May 18, 2022May 19, 2022$1,717
TY M2long5May 16, 2022May 16, 2022$2,068
DXM M2short4May 13, 2022May 15, 2022($1,969)
CC U2long5May 5, 2022May 13, 2022($6,155)
QCL M2long2May 12, 2022May 12, 2022$3,329
ES M2short2Apr 19, 2022Apr 22, 2022$5,859
QCL J2short1Mar 17, 2022Mar 17, 2022($168)
QCL J2short1Mar 17, 2022Mar 17, 2022$589
MES H2long8Mar 17, 2022Mar 17, 2022$783
MES H2short8Mar 17, 2022Mar 17, 2022$210
MES H2short8Mar 16, 2022Mar 16, 2022$545
MES H2long7Mar 14, 2022Mar 15, 2022$650
MES H2short6Mar 14, 2022Mar 14, 2022$18
MES H2short14Mar 10, 2022Mar 10, 2022($929)
MES H2long10Mar 9, 2022Mar 9, 2022$492
MES H2long10Mar 9, 2022Mar 9, 2022$471
QCL J2short1Mar 9, 2022Mar 9, 2022$1,637
MES H2short24Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022$1,087
MES H2short8Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022$790
MES H2short16Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022$366
MES H2long6Mar 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022($155)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.