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Vinculum

Forex · Started Apr 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
738
Win Trades
52.6%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
31.8%

About this strategy

Vinculum is based on a statistical model which measures dispersions and correlations of various f/x pairs real-time. Timing of entry, closing wins, and stop-loss triggers are all managed by this model. The model uses high leverage, thus it can be scaled down. Vinculum provides short and long signals for the following 12 pairs:
1- AUD/USD
2- EUR/USD
3- GBP/USD
4- NZD/USD
5- USD/CAD
6- USD/MXN
7- USD/NOK
8- USD/SEK
9- USD/TRY
10- USD/ZAR
11- USD/SGD
12- USD/JPY

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20216.4-12.775.333.292.021.871.7156.1-22.41631.3
202259.5-9.8-55.4-88.0-134.4-185.8-32.471.3100.8-1.3-44.9-17.2-97.6
2023-12.368.4-18.615.942.2-21.9-47.485.9-2.719.8-22.4-50.2-31.8
202450.319.8-2.111.2-21.5-4.7-4.3-79.2-88.72317.00.392.554.1
2025-15.6-45.6-59.9-194.2-191.7-52.9-1.8-17.20.00.00.00.0-163.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/23/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age65 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades738
# Profitable388
% Profitable52.6%
Avg trade duration12.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodApril 01, 2025 - July 01, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$2,200
Avg loss$2,425

Ratios

W:L ratio1.01
Sharpe Ratio0.49
Sortino Ratio2.15
Calmar Ratio0.25

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life82.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-212.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,425
Avg Win$2,200
# Winners388
Sum Trade PL (losers)$848,864
Sum Trade PL (winners)$853,701
Num Months Winners8
# Losers350
% Winners52.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table14

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)17258.28
Avg Position Time (hrs)287.64
Avg Trade Length12
Last Trade Ago378

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)43.63
Daily leverage (max)1381.92

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.16
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.06
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.10
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.11
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.40
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.32
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.13
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.38
Hold-and-Hope Ratio2.42

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean4085.03
SD5271.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.74
df19
t1.00
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.28
Sortino ratio3615.69
Upside Potential Ratio3617.24
Upside part of mean4086.78
Downside part of mean-1.75
Upside SD5271.22
Downside SD1.13
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms7
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion4085.03
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion5271.08
Covariance-298.30
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3670.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)5327.29
Mean Square Error28172326
DF error18
t(b)-0.86
p(b)0.60
t(a)1.22
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-12643.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5303.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3828.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha14483.44
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.11
Jensen alpha (a)5327.29
Mean0.20
SD10.87
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df19
t0.02
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.54
Sortino ratio0.02
Upside Potential Ratio1.02
Upside part of mean8.15
Downside part of mean-7.95
Upside SD6.94
Downside SD8.01
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms7
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion10.87
Covariance0.02
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error124.70
DF error18
t(b)0.02
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-19.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta20.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-19.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha19.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.93
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.99
Expected Shortfall on VaR1.00
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.56
Mean1062.94
SD983.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.08
df443
t1.41
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.59
Sortino ratio574.51
Upside Potential Ratio580.27
Upside part of mean1073.59
Downside part of mean-10.66
Upside SD984.69
Downside SD1.85
N nonnegative terms219
N negative terms225
N of observations444
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion1062.94
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion983.60
Covariance6.83
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)85.66
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1031.40
Mean Square Error969080.25
DF error442
t(b)0.52
p(b)0.30
t(a)1.36
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-239.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta411.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-459.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2522.43
Treynor index (mean / b)12.41
Jensen alpha (a)1031.40
Mean0.20
SD11.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df443
t0.02
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.52
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio2.63
Upside part of mean19.93
Downside part of mean-19.73
Upside SD7.97
Downside SD7.58
N nonnegative terms219
N negative terms225
N of observations444
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion11.01
Covariance-0.14
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.75
Mean Square Error121.25
DF error442
t(b)-0.92
p(b)0.82
t(a)0.09
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-5.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-15.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha17.42
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.75
VaR(95%)0.67
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.75
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
Mean1.04
SD1.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.96
df130
t0.68
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.74
Sortino ratio1.45
Upside Potential Ratio9.21
Upside part of mean6.62
Downside part of mean-5.57
Upside SD0.80
Downside SD0.72
N nonnegative terms54
N negative terms77
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.44
Mean of criterion1.04
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion1.08
Covariance-0.17
r-0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.96
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.42
Mean Square Error1.01
DF error129
t(b)-4.64
p(b)0.73
t(a)1.67
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.09
Jensen alpha (a)2.42
Mean0.46
SD1.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.42
df130
t0.30
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.20
Sortino ratio0.60
Upside Potential Ratio8.19
Upside part of mean6.32
Downside part of mean-5.85
Upside SD0.76
Downside SD0.77
N nonnegative terms54
N negative terms77
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.35
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion1.09
Covariance-0.17
r-0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.95
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.75
Mean Square Error1.02
DF error129
t(b)-4.60
p(b)0.73
t(a)1.20
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.36
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.63
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.49
Jensen alpha (a)1.75
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations20
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.90
Median1.37
Quartile 31.57
Maximum6806.12
Mean of quarter 10.44
Mean of quarter 21.09
Mean of quarter 31.48
Mean of quarter 41362.68
Inter Quartile Range0.67
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high6806.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.44
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.46
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.75
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.76
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.89
Number of observations444
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.95
Median1
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1079
Mean of quarter 10.86
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 417.37
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low16
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.54
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high130.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.39
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations131
Minimum0.77
Quartile 10.97
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.81
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.16
Median0.23
Quartile 30.62
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.08
Mean of quarter 20.23
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0.46
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations28
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.08
Quartile 30.15
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.35
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.72
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.54
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.40
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.92
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.36
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.05
Median0.22
Quartile 30.31
Maximum0.40
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.22
Mean of quarter 30.28
Mean of quarter 40.37
Inter Quartile Range0.27
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.39
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.39
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.41
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.50
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-424735616
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)91
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.26
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.26
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.27
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.71
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.34
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.56
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.63
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.60
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.97

Trading record

Placed 3201 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
USD/JPY long60Jun 7, 2022Aug 21, 2025$1,820
USD/NOK long70Jun 2, 2022Aug 21, 2025$1,645
USD/CAD long70Jun 2, 2022Aug 21, 2025$1,914
USD/ZAR long70May 31, 2022Aug 21, 2025$2,338
USD/TRY long20Jun 27, 2022Aug 2, 2022$493
USD/SEK long40Jun 21, 2022Aug 2, 2022$267
USD/SGD short60Jun 14, 2022Aug 2, 2022$228
NZD/USD short100Jun 2, 2022Aug 2, 2022$796
GBP/USD short20Jun 27, 2022Aug 2, 2022($42)
AUD/USD short40Jun 27, 2022Aug 2, 2022$17
EUR/USD long30Jun 24, 2022Jul 5, 2022($474)
AUD/USD short40Jun 20, 2022Jun 21, 2022($0)
USD/TRY short30Jun 13, 2022Jun 17, 2022($36)
EUR/USD short20Jun 16, 2022Jun 17, 2022$129
AUD/USD short60Jun 2, 2022Jun 17, 2022$751
USD/SEK long30Jun 10, 2022Jun 13, 2022$361
GBP/USD short20Jun 8, 2022Jun 13, 2022$495
EUR/USD short10Jun 6, 2022Jun 8, 2022$39
USD/TRY short60May 27, 2022Jun 8, 2022($237)
USD/SEK short20Jun 6, 2022Jun 8, 2022($52)
USD/SGD short10Jun 2, 2022Jun 7, 2022($69)
GBP/USD short20Jun 2, 2022Jun 7, 2022$104
EUR/USD long10Jun 2, 2022Jun 6, 2022($25)
USD/SEK short30Jun 1, 2022Jun 2, 2022$274
AUD/USD long30Jun 1, 2022Jun 2, 2022($100)
GBP/USD short40May 25, 2022Jun 1, 2022($133)
USD/CAD long30May 30, 2022Jun 1, 2022($133)
EUR/USD short20May 26, 2022May 30, 2022($159)
USD/NOK long30May 26, 2022May 27, 2022($212)
USD/CAD long30May 26, 2022May 27, 2022($140)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.