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Medallion CME

Futures · Futures · Started Mar 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
31.7%
Max Drawdown
29.6%
Trades
83
Win Trades
81.9%
Profit Factor
1.80
Win Months
7.5%

About this strategy

Hello,

This system Medallion CME (Futures) is identical to the my system Medallion X (Forex) | https://collective2.com/details/132634862

1) Trading experience since 2006. Experience in managing a fund of 20 million USD. The plan and goal for the future is to open a hedge fund.
2) My public verified trading results | 2011 + 12.11% | 2012 + 105.51% | 2013 + 272.49% | 2014 + 182.49% | 2015 + 121.17% | 2016 + 65.57% | 2017 + 18.24% | 2018 + 88.6% | 2019 +16.5%.
3) Manual trading is based on the use of advanced mathematical algorithms that generate accurate entry and exit signals, as well as on the analysis of intraday currency futures of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group).
4) Trading is carried out both by trend and reversal, on CME currency futures: British Pound Futures, Euro FX Futures, Australian Dollar Futures, Japanese Yen Futures, Canadian Dollar Futures, Swiss Franc Futures.
5) Each trade is protected by stop loss. Prior to the opening of each trade, a risk calculation is made and only after that a trade is opened. Risk control takes first place in the system.
6) Maximum Position Sizes for Medallion CME | In order to comply with rules imposed by market regulators, including the CME and the CFTC, Collective2 restricts the size of trades that can be placed at exchanges.
7) Maximum drawdown per month 10%. The risk for you may be more than 10% if you connected not from the 1st of the month.
8) Not a martingale.

July 27, 2021
Michael

Currencies

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20210.26.8-5.23.215.4-12.48.20.00.00.014.5
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/31/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$125,000
Age66 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades83
# Profitable68
% Profitable81.9%
Avg trade duration2.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown29.6%
drawdown periodAug 05, 2021 - Aug 20, 2021
Cumul. Return14.5%
Avg win$903
Avg loss$2,305

Ratios

W:L ratio1.78
Sharpe Ratio0.09
Sortino Ratio0.12
Calmar Ratio0.76

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life92.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)2.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)31.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity9.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss56.5%
Chance of 20% account loss14.5%
Chance of 30% account loss2.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)491
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)900
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)677

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,305
Avg Win$903
# Winners68
Sum Trade PL (losers)$34,570
Sum Trade PL (winners)$61,400
Num Months Winners5
# Losers15
% Winners81.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table67

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3294.90
Avg Position Time (hrs)54.92
Avg Trade Length2.30
Last Trade Ago1820

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)6.63
Daily leverage (max)17.38

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.02
Treynor Index0.15

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.66
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.13
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.36
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.56
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.15

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.31
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df4
t0.56
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.77
Sortino ratio1.79
Upside Potential Ratio3.81
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms2
N of observations5
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.06
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.00
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error3
t(b)0.31
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-9.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta11.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.65
Treynor index (mean / b)0.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean0.26
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df4
t0.48
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.66
Sortino ratio1.42
Upside Potential Ratio3.43
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms2
N of observations5
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.06
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.00
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error3
t(b)0.32
p(b)0.38
t(a)-0.04
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-9.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta11.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.52
Treynor index (mean / b)0.24
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.44
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.12
df126
t0.79
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.94
Sortino ratio1.56
Upside Potential Ratio8.17
Upside part of mean2.30
Downside part of mean-1.86
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms57
N of observations127
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.44
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.01
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error125
t(b)1.91
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.56
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.42
Treynor index (mean / b)0.73
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
Mean0.36
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.92
df126
t0.65
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.74
Sortino ratio1.25
Upside Potential Ratio7.80
Upside part of mean2.27
Downside part of mean-1.90
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms57
N of observations127
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.01
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error125
t(b)1.92
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.42
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.59
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.96
Median1.04
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21.04
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations127
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.06
Median0.07
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.26
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.59
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-307902624
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)15
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.27
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.27
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.96
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.43
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.48
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.12

Trading record

Placed 796 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BP U1long138Aug 4, 2021Sep 9, 2021($7,035)
AD U1long192Jul 5, 2021Aug 20, 2021($26)
EU U1long4Aug 10, 2021Aug 11, 2021$656
BP U1short15Aug 2, 2021Aug 4, 2021($889)
BP U1short7Aug 2, 2021Aug 2, 2021$657
BP U1short4Aug 2, 2021Aug 2, 2021$712
BP U1long7Aug 1, 2021Aug 2, 2021$644
BP U1short5Jul 29, 2021Aug 1, 2021$1,979
BP U1long3Jul 28, 2021Jul 28, 2021$464
BP U1long7Jul 28, 2021Jul 28, 2021$857
BP U1long8Jul 28, 2021Jul 28, 2021$655
BP U1long1Jul 28, 2021Jul 28, 2021$148
BP U1long1Jul 28, 2021Jul 28, 2021$98
BP U1long20Jul 23, 2021Jul 26, 2021$4,146
BP U1long14Jul 15, 2021Jul 19, 2021($4,737)
BP U1long9Jul 14, 2021Jul 15, 2021$1,966
BP U1long25Jul 12, 2021Jul 14, 2021$2,725
BP U1long10Jul 9, 2021Jul 9, 2021$1,501
AUD/USD long100Jul 6, 2021Jul 6, 2021$8
EU U1long37Jun 27, 2021Jul 5, 2021$2,910
SF U1long3Jul 2, 2021Jul 2, 2021($99)
SF U1long8Jun 28, 2021Jul 2, 2021($3,389)
AD U1long6Jul 2, 2021Jul 2, 2021$402
EU U1long15Jun 22, 2021Jun 25, 2021$3,099
BP U1long13Jun 22, 2021Jun 22, 2021$1,396
GBP/USD long30Jun 22, 2021Jun 22, 2021($0)
EU U1long5Jun 20, 2021Jun 21, 2021$1,879
CD U1long7Jun 17, 2021Jun 18, 2021($7,141)
BP U1short5Jun 16, 2021Jun 17, 2021$701
EU U1short5Jun 16, 2021Jun 16, 2021$3,416

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.