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JWB SPXL/SPXS NN

Equity · Stocks · Started Mar 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
29.3%
Max Drawdown
31.7%
Trades
119
Win Trades
63.0%
Profit Factor
3
Win Months
65.7%

Trend-following Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20217.013.85.3-4.81.47.6-4.7-3.9-10.813.623.5
2022-10.012.11.80.710.95.96.2-6.3-0.85.111.30.641.2
2023-1.0-2.2-2.45.26.42.35.1-6.5-7.4-6.316.17.815.5
20241.58.65.6-7.38.46.5-3.06.52.41.96.20.443.0
20251.4-5.7-10.2-18.722.64.913.52.85.37.0-1.71.417.6
20261.0-0.2-19.028.69.6-2.1-1.46.91.720.8

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/18/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age67 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades119
# Profitable75
% Profitable63.0%
Avg trade duration14.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown31.7%
drawdown periodDec 06, 2024 - April 22, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)29.3%
Avg win$3,185
Avg loss$1,825

Ratios

W:L ratio3
Sharpe Ratio0.87
Sortino Ratio1.48
Calmar Ratio2.14

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.55
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life93.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)212.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)29.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)30.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss50.0%
Chance of 20% account loss16.0%
Chance of 30% account loss4.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,825
Avg Win$3,185
# Winners75
Sum Trade PL (losers)$80,320
Sum Trade PL (winners)$238,869
Num Months Winners44
# Losers44
% Winners63.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct2456

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table67

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)20397
Avg Position Time (hrs)339.95
Avg Trade Length14.20
Last Trade Ago1097

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.38
Daily leverage (max)3.78

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta0.88
Treynor Index0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.70
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-4.42
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.41
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.04
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.60

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.46
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.38
df32
t2.34
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.61
Sortino ratio4.19
Upside Potential Ratio6.08
Upside part of mean0.67
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms12
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.04
r0.59
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error31
t(b)4.03
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.80
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)0.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
Mean0.41
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.31
df32
t2.23
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.54
Sortino ratio3.58
Upside Potential Ratio5.46
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms12
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.41
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.04
r0.54
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.76
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error31
t(b)3.61
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.77
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.61
Treynor index (mean / b)0.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.55
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.36
df738
t2.28
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.53
Sortino ratio2.66
Upside Potential Ratio8.99
Upside part of mean1.85
Downside part of mean-1.30
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms340
N negative terms399
N of observations739
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.55
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.06
r0.63
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error737
t(b)22.22
p(b)0
t(a)1.53
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.65
Treynor index (mean / b)0.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
Mean0.47
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.24
df738
t2.08
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.40
Sortino ratio2.22
Upside Potential Ratio8.46
Upside part of mean1.80
Downside part of mean-1.33
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms340
N negative terms399
N of observations739
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.47
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.05
r0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error737
t(b)21.41
p(b)0
t(a)1.42
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.60
Treynor index (mean / b)0.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean1.71
SD0.82
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.07
df130
t1.47
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.86
Sortino ratio4.66
Upside Potential Ratio11.71
Upside part of mean4.31
Downside part of mean-2.59
Upside SD0.74
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms68
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.08
Mean of criterion1.71
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.82
Covariance0.28
r0.94
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.56
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error129
t(b)31.97
p(b)0.01
t(a)-1.41
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)0.81
Jensen alpha (a)-0.56
Mean1.41
SD0.76
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.84
df130
t1.31
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.62
Sortino ratio3.67
Upside Potential Ratio10.62
Upside part of mean4.07
Downside part of mean-2.66
Upside SD0.66
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms68
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.01
Mean of criterion1.41
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.76
Covariance0.26
r0.94
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.62
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)31.72
p(b)0.01
t(a)-1.68
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.89
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)0.70
Jensen alpha (a)-0.62
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations33
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.97
Median1.02
Quartile 31.09
Maximum1.30
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.59
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations739
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low39
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high54
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.72
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.05
Median0.06
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations46
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.84
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.41
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-435468128
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)137
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.83
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.54
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.57
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.01
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.65
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.19
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)3.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)10.53
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs17.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal36.55

Trading record

Placed 175 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SPXL long600Aug 24, 2023Aug 25, 2023$1,094
SPXL long600Jul 31, 2023Aug 21, 2023($7,139)
SPXL long525Jul 27, 2023Jul 28, 2023$1,307
SPXL long520Jul 26, 2023Jul 27, 2023$1,602
SPXL long525Jul 21, 2023Jul 25, 2023$812
SPXL long575Jul 10, 2023Jul 11, 2023$1,618
SPXL long580Jun 21, 2023Jul 5, 2023$1,771
SPXS long3300Jun 13, 2023Jun 20, 2023($1,127)
SPXL long600Jun 8, 2023Jun 9, 2023$1,135
SPXL long675May 24, 2023May 30, 2023$3,370
SPXL long700May 3, 2023May 8, 2023$1,657
SPXS long3000Apr 28, 2023May 2, 2023($20)
SPXL long700Apr 26, 2023Apr 28, 2023$2,546
SPXS long1500Apr 18, 2023Apr 20, 2023$865
SPXL long350Apr 12, 2023Apr 13, 2023$1,041
SPXS long2600Mar 27, 2023Apr 12, 2023($3,237)
SPXL long400Mar 24, 2023Mar 24, 2023$596
SPXS long2500Mar 16, 2023Mar 23, 2023($1,243)
SPXL long375Mar 7, 2023Mar 8, 2023$101
SPXL long725Feb 21, 2023Mar 3, 2023$1,516
SPXL long700Feb 16, 2023Feb 17, 2023($459)
SPXS long1400Feb 14, 2023Feb 16, 2023$450
SPXL long650Feb 9, 2023Feb 14, 2023($1,747)
SPXS long2800Feb 2, 2023Feb 8, 2023$1,221
SPXS long2500Jan 23, 2023Jan 31, 2023($2,455)
SPXL long750Jan 19, 2023Jan 20, 2023$2,164
SPXS long2400Jan 9, 2023Jan 18, 2023($370)
SPXL long800Dec 29, 2022Dec 29, 2022$1,281
SPXL long735Dec 15, 2022Dec 27, 2022($3,199)
SPXS long1200Dec 13, 2022Dec 15, 2022$1,005

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.