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3x Hyperbolic SPY

Stocks · Started Mar 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
15.2%
Max Drawdown
31.7%
Trades
156
Win Trades
48.7%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
9.0%

About this strategy

Trades the 3x ETFs UPRO and SPXU and will occasionally go to Cash.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202114.5-3.520.96.15.19.1-14.7-1.2-6.62.831.3
2022-13.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-13.3
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/2/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age67 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades156
# Profitable76
% Profitable48.7%
Avg trade duration1.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown31.7%
drawdown periodSept 09, 2021 - Jan 26, 2022
Cumul. Return13.9%
Avg win$1,205
Avg loss$1,027

Ratios

W:L ratio1.11
Sharpe Ratio0.08
Sortino Ratio0.12
Calmar Ratio0.46

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life97.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-0.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)15.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity45.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss50.0%
Chance of 20% account loss12.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated10.5%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)757
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)907
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)807

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,027
Avg Win$1,205
# Winners76
Sum Trade PL (losers)$82,169
Sum Trade PL (winners)$91,594
Num Months Winners6
# Losers80
% Winners48.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct17

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table67

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2074.77
Avg Position Time (hrs)34.58
Avg Trade Length1.40
Last Trade Ago1677

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.03
Daily leverage (max)6.04

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.04
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades80.69
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.16
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.65
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.20
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.38
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.06
df9
t1.05
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.26
Sortino ratio2.19
Upside Potential Ratio3.64
Upside part of mean0.64
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms4
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error8
t(b)1.11
p(b)0.15
t(a)0.26
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.12
Treynor index (mean / b)0.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.33
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.92
df9
t0.92
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.10
Sortino ratio1.74
Upside Potential Ratio3.16
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms4
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error8
t(b)1.29
p(b)0.12
t(a)0.07
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.99
Treynor index (mean / b)0.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean0.22
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.84
df237
t0.80
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.90
Sortino ratio1.28
Upside Potential Ratio9.49
Upside part of mean1.63
Downside part of mean-1.41
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms118
N negative terms120
N of observations238
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.01
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error236
t(b)2.70
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.65
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.71
Treynor index (mean / b)0.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.19
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df237
t0.68
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.77
Sortino ratio1.07
Upside Potential Ratio9.23
Upside part of mean1.61
Downside part of mean-1.42
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms118
N negative terms120
N of observations238
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.01
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error236
t(b)2.72
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.53
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.68
Treynor index (mean / b)0.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.38
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.52
df130
t-1.08
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio-1.95
Upside Potential Ratio6.44
Upside part of mean1.26
Downside part of mean-1.64
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms69
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.01
Mean of criterion-0.38
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.38
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)1.86
p(b)0.40
t(a)-1.08
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.38
Mean-0.41
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.64
df130
t-1.16
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.14
Sortino ratio-2.07
Upside Potential Ratio6.26
Upside part of mean1.25
Downside part of mean-1.66
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms69
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion-0.41
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.41
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)1.88
p(b)0.40
t(a)-1.16
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.39
Jensen alpha (a)-0.41
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.85
Quartile 10.99
Median1.04
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.47
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations238
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.09
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.73
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.86
Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-303764768
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)139
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.42
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.43
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.43
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.43
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.78
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.84
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.94
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.45
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.35
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.32
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-9.70

Trading record

Placed 137 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SPXU long3562Jan 28, 2022Jan 28, 2022($682)
SPXU long3562Jan 28, 2022Jan 28, 2022($2,392)
UPRO long1035Jan 28, 2022Jan 28, 2022$150
TQQQ long1004Jan 27, 2022Jan 27, 2022($557)
SPXU long3564Jan 27, 2022Jan 27, 2022$2,062
UPRO long1004Jan 27, 2022Jan 27, 2022($547)
SPXU long3564Jan 26, 2022Jan 26, 2022$1,894
UPRO long1074Jan 24, 2022Jan 24, 2022($692)
UPRO long1074Jan 24, 2022Jan 24, 2022($1,616)
SPXU long3783Jan 24, 2022Jan 24, 2022($1,594)
UPRO long1074Jan 24, 2022Jan 24, 2022($2,819)
UPRO long991Jan 21, 2022Jan 21, 2022($1,026)
SPXU long4389Jan 21, 2022Jan 21, 2022($49)
UPRO long991Jan 20, 2022Jan 20, 2022($203)
UPRO long991Jan 20, 2022Jan 20, 2022($243)
SPXU long4654Jan 20, 2022Jan 20, 2022($1,169)
SPXU long4763Jan 19, 2022Jan 19, 2022$519
SPXU long1182Jan 18, 2022Jan 18, 2022($76)
SPXU long5120Jan 14, 2022Jan 14, 2022($159)
UPRO long455Jan 13, 2022Jan 13, 2022($1,319)
UPRO long150Jan 12, 2022Jan 12, 2022($287)
UPRO long461Jan 10, 2022Jan 10, 2022$1,045
U long461Jan 10, 2022Jan 10, 2022$480
UPRO long455Jan 7, 2022Jan 7, 2022$382
UPRO long455Jan 7, 2022Jan 7, 2022($1,397)
UPRO long449Jan 6, 2022Jan 6, 2022$911
UPRO long423Jan 5, 2022Jan 5, 2022$204
UPRO long423Jan 4, 2022Jan 4, 2022$665
SPXU long1758Jan 3, 2022Jan 3, 2022($75)
SPXU long5354Dec 31, 2021Dec 31, 2021$637

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.