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Alfa Wall Street SP500

Equity · Stocks · Started Feb 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-6.2%
Max Drawdown
29.7%
Trades
85
Win Trades
40.0%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
14.7%

About this strategy

What to expect:

Every Week, we run scans over 10,000 stocks to find those who are with the strongets uptrend power.

The system only does long positions and cuts losses quickly.

We trade Stocks, REITS and ETFs of Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, ADRs and Global,

FAQ:

Does this system need to be auto-traded?

No. All signals will be sent on sundays, so you should have time to enter the trades manually in the morning before the market opens.

Do you short stocks?

No. We only use long positions.

Do you use leverage?

No.

Do you use stops?

Yes, just after the long position is filled, we put the stop order.

How has the system performed during backtesting?

The system follow rules based on a mechanical, bur manually applied strategy that I have developed through 8 years of intensive study.

What will happen during bear markets?

Where can I get more information?

Follow me on Instagram @agenteinveste

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021-2.70.93.81.2-3.5-1.3-0.8-6.910.65.0-1.14.3
2022-3.0-0.20.2-2.21.9-8.4-10.04.716.7-6.7-6.50.3-14.8
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/7/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age68 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades85
# Profitable34
% Profitable40.0%
Avg trade duration73.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown29.7%
drawdown periodNov 22, 2021 - Aug 16, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)-6.2%
Avg win$370
Avg loss$326

Ratios

W:L ratio0.83
Sharpe Ratio-0.38
Sortino Ratio-0.51
Calmar Ratio-0.10

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life96.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-13.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-6.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity24.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss86.0%
Chance of 20% account loss45.5%
Chance of 30% account loss7.5%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)489
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$326
Avg Win$370
# Winners34
Sum Trade PL (losers)$16,641
Sum Trade PL (winners)$12,575
Num Months Winners10
# Losers51
% Winners40.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1285

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table68

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)105489.20
Avg Position Time (hrs)1758.15
Avg Trade Length73.30
Last Trade Ago1372

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.95
Daily leverage (max)2.04

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index0.75

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.16
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-5.67
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.43
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.47
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.31
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.03
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.12
df20
t-0.17
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.36
Sortino ratio-0.21
Upside Potential Ratio1.81
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms13
N of observations21
Mean of predictor-0.00
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.02
r-0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error19
t(b)-1.77
p(b)0.73
t(a)-0.18
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)0.07
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean-0.05
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.22
df20
t-0.30
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio-0.35
Upside Potential Ratio1.64
Upside part of mean0.22
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms13
N of observations21
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.02
r-0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error19
t(b)-1.80
p(b)0.74
t(a)-0.38
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean-0.05
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.35
df477
t-0.48
p0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.10
Sortino ratio-0.48
Upside Potential Ratio7.44
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.81
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms238
N negative terms240
N of observations478
Mean of predictor-0.00
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error476
t(b)-0.63
p(b)0.74
t(a)-0.48
p(a)0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)2.41
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.06
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.42
df477
t-0.57
p0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.03
Sortino ratio-0.58
Upside Potential Ratio7.33
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.81
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms238
N negative terms240
N of observations478
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error476
t(b)-0.60
p(b)0.72
t(a)-0.57
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)3.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.23
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.26
df130
t-0.90
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.51
Sortino ratio-1.74
Upside Potential Ratio7.38
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-1.22
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.07
Mean of criterion-0.23
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance-0.02
r-0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.26
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)-6.84
p(b)0.81
t(a)-1.17
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.62
Jensen alpha (a)-0.26
Mean-0.25
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.36
df130
t-0.96
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.42
Sortino ratio-1.85
Upside Potential Ratio7.26
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-1.23
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.11
Mean of criterion-0.25
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance-0.02
r-0.51
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.29
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)-6.81
p(b)0.81
t(a)-1.30
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.48
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.66
Jensen alpha (a)-0.29
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations21
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.97
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations478
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low33
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high22
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.13
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.06
Median0.10
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.10
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.14
Median0.16
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.11
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-319752992
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)267
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.09
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.16
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.72
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.93
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.93
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.29

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SDS long493Jun 30, 2022Dec 5, 2022($918)
EUM long2586May 2, 2022Nov 11, 2022$1,239
RVPH long518Oct 11, 2022Oct 13, 2022$104
STEM long156Sep 14, 2022Oct 13, 2022($822)
KDNY long85Aug 16, 2022Oct 10, 2022($315)
STNG long35Aug 16, 2022Sep 23, 2022($1)
BTAL long79Mar 7, 2022Aug 3, 2022$5
RLY long693Apr 4, 2022Jun 23, 2022($2,361)
FXZ long292Jan 5, 2022Jun 13, 2022($2,046)
FTXR long79Dec 22, 2021Feb 23, 2022($235)
ITB long50Nov 29, 2021Jan 24, 2022($454)
DWAS long24Dec 23, 2021Jan 18, 2022($120)
CGW long52Dec 21, 2021Jan 18, 2022($159)
APRN long282Nov 1, 2021Dec 10, 2021$5
PANW long21Oct 7, 2021Dec 3, 2021$495
CWST long108Oct 19, 2021Nov 26, 2021$616
SMTC long85Sep 22, 2021Nov 26, 2021$763
QCRH long258Oct 25, 2021Nov 26, 2021$921
SIG long52Oct 8, 2021Nov 26, 2021$596
XLY long138Sep 27, 2021Nov 26, 2021$2,811
MGIC long309Nov 1, 2021Nov 24, 2021($315)
ARLP long629Sep 27, 2021Nov 9, 2021$599
PEBO long233Oct 15, 2021Oct 27, 2021($380)
MSGS long48Sep 22, 2021Oct 22, 2021($217)
AON long4Aug 10, 2021Oct 4, 2021$67
FPEI long85Aug 5, 2021Sep 28, 2021($16)
POWI long31Aug 20, 2021Sep 28, 2021$96
WIRE long29Aug 11, 2021Sep 20, 2021($155)
BIP long84Aug 16, 2021Sep 17, 2021($130)
MSTR long14Aug 23, 2021Sep 10, 2021($1,634)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.