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Dr.Pogi options group

Equity · Options · Started Jan 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-20.1%
Max Drawdown
76.9%
Trades
98
Win Trades
38.8%
Profit Factor
0.60
Win Months
1.5%

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202111.4-74.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-71.7
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/12/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$12,500
Age68 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades98
# Profitable38
% Profitable38.8%
Avg trade duration2.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown76.9%
drawdown periodJan 29, 2021 - Feb 27, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)-20.1%
Avg win$346
Avg loss$363

Ratios

W:L ratio0.60
Sharpe Ratio-0.64
Sortino Ratio-0.79
Calmar Ratio-1.01

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life100.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-176.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-20.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-18.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity333.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$363
Avg Win$346
# Winners38
Sum Trade PL (losers)$21,776
Sum Trade PL (winners)$13,160
Num Months Winners1
# Losers60
% Winners38.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table68

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2863.67
Avg Position Time (hrs)47.73
Avg Trade Length2
Last Trade Ago2008

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)15.17
Daily leverage (max)44.30

Regression

Alpha-0.06
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-6.61

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.36
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.31
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.24
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.56
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.73

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-1.09
SD0.65
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.54
df9
t-1.54
p0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio-1.58
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-1.09
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.69
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms10
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.70
Mean of criterion-1.09
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.65
Covariance0.05
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.42
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.38
Mean Square Error0.45
DF error8
t(b)0.62
p(b)0.28
t(a)-1.58
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.63
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.60
Jensen alpha (a)-1.38
Mean-1.43
SD0.85
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.53
df9
t-1.53
p0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.73
Sortino ratio-1.57
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-1.43
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.91
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms10
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion-1.43
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.85
Covariance0.05
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.75
Mean Square Error0.79
DF error8
t(b)0.55
p(b)0.30
t(a)-1.54
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.87
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.80
Jensen alpha (a)-1.75
VaR(95%)0.41
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.46
VaR(95%)0.31
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.59
Mean-1.13
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.70
df227
t-1.59
p0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.40
Sortino ratio-2.09
Upside Potential Ratio1.80
Upside part of mean0.97
Downside part of mean-2.11
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.54
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms218
N of observations228
Mean of predictor0.87
Mean of criterion-1.13
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.15
Mean Square Error0.44
DF error226
t(b)0.15
p(b)0.44
t(a)-1.60
p(a)0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-64.26
Jensen alpha (a)-1.15
Mean-1.37
SD0.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.96
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.95
df227
t-1.83
p0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.15
Sortino ratio-2.26
Upside Potential Ratio1.50
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-2.28
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.61
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms218
N of observations228
Mean of predictor0.79
Mean of criterion-1.37
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.70
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.39
Mean Square Error0.49
DF error226
t(b)0.22
p(b)0.41
t(a)-1.84
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-49.33
Jensen alpha (a)-1.39
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.99
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6809910092234752
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.61058481627377e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.55
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.71
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.56
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-5.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.42
Number of observations228
Minimum0.69
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low23
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.69
Quartile 10.69
Median0.69
Quartile 30.69
Maximum0.69
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.07
Median0.09
Quartile 30.27
Maximum0.73
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.73
Inter Quartile Range0.19
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.73
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-387562208
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)29
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.83
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.75
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.63
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.79
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.74
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.22
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 139 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GME2126N80 long1Feb 25, 2021Feb 27, 2021($846)
TSLA2126B740 long1Feb 24, 2021Feb 26, 2021($1,047)
AMZN2126B3210 long1Feb 24, 2021Feb 26, 2021($1,211)
TSLA2126N600 long1Feb 23, 2021Feb 24, 2021($989)
TSLA2126B730 long1Feb 23, 2021Feb 24, 2021($306)
QS2126B70 long1.5Feb 22, 2021Feb 23, 2021($379)
SPY2119O380 long2.5Feb 18, 2021Feb 23, 2021$306
RIOT2126N60 long1.5Feb 22, 2021Feb 23, 2021$673
ZM2126N390 long1.5Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021$220
TSLA2126N760 long1.5Feb 19, 2021Feb 22, 2021$1,474
NVDA2119B610 long2Feb 17, 2021Feb 18, 2021($754)
AMZN2119B3320 long0.5Feb 16, 2021Feb 17, 2021$39
TSLA2119N780 long0.5Feb 16, 2021Feb 17, 2021$348
SNDL2112B2.5 long5Feb 11, 2021Feb 13, 2021($629)
OSTK2112N100 long1.5Feb 10, 2021Feb 13, 2021($503)
SPY2112N390 long2.5Feb 10, 2021Feb 12, 2021($444)
TLRY2112B60 long0.5Feb 10, 2021Feb 11, 2021($375)
ZM2112B450 long0.5Feb 10, 2021Feb 10, 2021($169)
OSTK2112B105 long1.5Feb 9, 2021Feb 10, 2021$177
AMZN2119B3500 long0.5Feb 8, 2021Feb 9, 2021($260)
NIO2112B62 long2.5Feb 9, 2021Feb 9, 2021$278
NVDA2112B600 long1Feb 8, 2021Feb 9, 2021($8)
FB2112B270 long1.5Feb 9, 2021Feb 9, 2021$300
NVDA2112B575 long1Feb 8, 2021Feb 9, 2021$367
SQ2119B270 long1.5Feb 8, 2021Feb 9, 2021($305)
AMZN2112B3450 long0.5Feb 5, 2021Feb 8, 2021($687)
GME2112B100 long0.5Feb 5, 2021Feb 8, 2021($595)
TSLA2112B900 long0.5Feb 5, 2021Feb 8, 2021($298)
OSTK2112B95 long0.5Feb 5, 2021Feb 8, 2021$133
SNAP2112B60 long2.5Feb 5, 2021Feb 8, 2021$364

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.