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NQ Quickie

Futures · Started Dec 2020

Trades Own Strategy

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
27.6%
Max Drawdown
74.3%
Trades
403
Win Trades
35.0%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
60.0%
Subscribe $249/mo

About this strategy

Short term trades on NQ futures - System attempts to ride the short term momentum. Tight stops employed and winners are let run until momentum exhaustion. Model account trades 2 NQ contracts, but you could follow it with 1 contract if you wish to, with a minimum capital requirement of USD 25 k. You must be psychologically prepared to see a lot of small losses and play the waiting game for the big winners. ( i.e. expect lower win-ratio, but higher profit factor ).

The beauty of the system is that the exposure time to market is very low (approximately 10% of cash market hours). It has an above average calamar ratio historically, which justifies the higher leverage employed. For the conservative ones, even a leverage of only 2x can be employed

No of trades expected : around 70 per year

System was rescaled to 50% on 26/05/2021 and hence you will see historic trades with 1 contract. Going forward, trades will be with 2 NQ contract per order.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20204.44.4
202135.711.117.27.84.53.71.017.1-3.94.6-12.246.4215.8
2022-2.73.40.55.51.71.118.3-2.6-12.8-13.521.513.030.7
2023-4.10.62.96.423.4-4.7-7.714.9-0.0-7.6-9.510.922.2
2024-5.08.821.10.34.617.8-0.5-12.1-3.6-8.74.56.933.1
20253.30.6-2.911.4-3.6-4.8-9.23.1-11.411.8-11.4-20.0-32.3
2026-35.3-19.0-4.818.133.70.6-3.19.71.8-14.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/7/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$40,000
Age70 months
C2 Rank320
What it tradesFutures
# Trades403
# Profitable141
% Profitable35.0%
Avg trade duration12.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown74.3%
drawdown periodJune 17, 2024 - April 17, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)27.6%
Avg win$2,369
Avg loss$1,086

Ratios

W:L ratio1.17
Sharpe Ratio0.69
Sortino Ratio1.24
Calmar Ratio0.59

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.26
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life107.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)199.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)27.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status-28.3%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)35.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity105.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss46.5%
Chance of 20% account loss26.5%
Chance of 30% account loss9.5%
Chance of 40% account loss2.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated94.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)581
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)841
C2 Score320
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)634

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?187070
TOS percent5.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,086
Avg Win$2,368
# Winners141
Sum Trade PL (losers)$284,598
Sum Trade PL (winners)$333,958
Num Months Winners42
# Losers262
% Winners35.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table70

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)762.30
Avg Position Time (hrs)12.70
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago6

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)7.87
Daily leverage (max)19

Regression

Alpha0.06
Beta0.54
Treynor Index0.14

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades21.45
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.67
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats49.37
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats69.63
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.24
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.28
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.05

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.36
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df67
t2.10
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.71
Sortino ratio1.85
Upside Potential Ratio3.64
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms35
N of observations68
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.01
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error66
t(b)1.63
p(b)0.05
t(a)1.76
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)0.75
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
Mean0.28
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df67
t1.71
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.54
Sortino ratio1.32
Upside Potential Ratio3.05
Upside part of mean0.64
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms35
N of observations68
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.01
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error66
t(b)1.60
p(b)0.06
t(a)1.42
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)0.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
Mean0.32
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.07
df1493
t2.57
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio2.04
Upside Potential Ratio8.81
Upside part of mean1.38
Downside part of mean-1.06
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms321
N negative terms1173
N of observations1494
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.01
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error1492
t(b)11.17
p(b)0.36
t(a)2.19
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)0.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
Mean0.28
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df1493
t2.26
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.77
Sortino ratio1.74
Upside Potential Ratio8.46
Upside part of mean1.35
Downside part of mean-1.07
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms321
N negative terms1173
N of observations1494
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error1492
t(b)10.88
p(b)0.36
t(a)1.94
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)0.58
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.76
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.95
df130
t2.10
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.74
Sortino ratio5.72
Upside Potential Ratio11.27
Upside part of mean1.50
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms97
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.76
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.01
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.66
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)2.76
p(b)0.35
t(a)1.86
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.36
Treynor index (mean / b)1.73
Jensen alpha (a)0.66
Mean0.73
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.84
df130
t2.02
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.64
Sortino ratio5.38
Upside Potential Ratio10.89
Upside part of mean1.47
Downside part of mean-0.75
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms97
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.73
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.01
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.63
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)2.73
p(b)0.35
t(a)1.79
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.33
Treynor index (mean / b)1.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.63
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations68
Minimum0.73
Quartile 10.96
Median1.00
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.37
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.73
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.35
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations1494
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low221
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high267
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low26
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high29
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations12
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.57
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.34
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.57
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.36
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.43
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.98
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.56
Expected Shortfall (regression method)22.34
Number of observations50
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.60
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.43
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.46
Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.06
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-399988960
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)669
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.82
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.62
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.92
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.82
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.60
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.03
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.92
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.62
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.62
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal38.65

Trading record

Placed 894 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ U6long6Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026$1,056
MNQ U6long6Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026($648)
MNQ U6long6Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026($963)
MNQ U6long6Aug 13, 2026Aug 13, 2026($300)
MNQ U6long6Aug 12, 2026Aug 12, 2026($1,047)
MNQ U6long6Aug 4, 2026Aug 4, 2026$5,211
MNQ U6long6Aug 3, 2026Aug 3, 2026$1,737
MNQ U6long6Jul 21, 2026Jul 21, 2026$1,851
MNQ U6long6Jul 20, 2026Jul 20, 2026($1,587)
MNQ U6long6Jul 14, 2026Jul 14, 2026($1,203)
MNQ U6long6Jun 30, 2026Jun 30, 2026$2,388
MNQ U6long6Jun 29, 2026Jun 29, 2026$2,874
MNQ U6long6Jun 18, 2026Jun 18, 2026$2,103
MNQ M6long6Jun 15, 2026Jun 15, 2026$2,235
MNQ M6long6Jun 12, 2026Jun 12, 2026($982)
MNQ M6long6Jun 11, 2026Jun 11, 2026($3,786)
MNQ M6long6Jun 9, 2026Jun 9, 2026($2,685)
MNQ M6long6Jun 8, 2026Jun 8, 2026($1,122)
MNQ M6long6Jun 1, 2026Jun 1, 2026($505)
MNQ M6long6May 28, 2026May 28, 2026$313
MNQ M6long6May 22, 2026May 22, 2026($1,478)
MNQ M6long6May 20, 2026May 20, 2026$2,251
MNQ M6long6May 14, 2026May 14, 2026$204
MNQ M6long6May 13, 2026May 13, 2026$1,341
MNQ M6long6May 8, 2026May 8, 2026$4,665
MNQ M6long6May 7, 2026May 7, 2026($1,392)
MNQ M6long6May 6, 2026May 6, 2026$2,641
MNQ M6long6May 5, 2026May 5, 2026$1,167
MNQ M6long6May 1, 2026May 1, 2026$459
MNQ M6long6Apr 30, 2026Apr 30, 2026$171

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.