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ProfitableAF

Stocks · Started Nov 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
12.8%
Max Drawdown
14.7%
Trades
223
Win Trades
37.2%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
7.0%

About this strategy

Here are the distinctions that make this system unique:

-The system is long only (can be traded in a retirement account).
-The system only trades liquid US stocks (no ETFs, so can be traded in Europe)
-Fewer and more concentrated trades
-A "tighter" method of selling winning positions
-Sells into strength more often
-Trades can be entered intra-day

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20201.312.914.4
2021-1.43.4-2.1-0.7-0.915.2-3.5-2.62.6-2.2-7.40.0-1.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/22/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age70 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades223
# Profitable83
% Profitable37.2%
Avg trade duration8.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.7%
drawdown periodJuly 02, 2021 - Nov 26, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)12.8%
Avg win$914
Avg loss$458

Ratios

W:L ratio1.23
Sharpe Ratio0.06
Sortino Ratio0.09
Calmar Ratio0.68

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life113.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-17.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)12.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity16.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss11.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)709
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)386

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$458
Avg Win$914
# Winners83
Sum Trade PL (losers)$64,178
Sum Trade PL (winners)$75,875
Num Months Winners5
# Losers140
% Winners37.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct3249

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table71

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)12656.98
Avg Position Time (hrs)210.95
Avg Trade Length8.80
Last Trade Ago1743

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.21
Daily leverage (max)2.03

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades11.61
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.86
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.31
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.09

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.13
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.53
df11
t0.57
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.50
Sortino ratio1.56
Upside Potential Ratio3.58
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms7
N of observations12
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error10
t(b)0.22
p(b)0.41
t(a)0.23
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)0.56
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.11
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df11
t0.49
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.43
Sortino ratio1.24
Upside Potential Ratio3.24
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms7
N of observations12
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error10
t(b)0.21
p(b)0.42
t(a)0.19
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.12
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.85
df264
t0.86
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.80
Sortino ratio1.39
Upside Potential Ratio9.15
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.64
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms121
N negative terms144
N of observations265
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.00
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error263
t(b)1.26
p(b)0.10
t(a)0.70
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)1.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.11
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.78
df264
t0.79
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.73
Sortino ratio1.27
Upside Potential Ratio9.00
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms121
N negative terms144
N of observations265
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.00
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error263
t(b)1.28
p(b)0.10
t(a)0.64
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)1.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.01
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.08
df130
t0.06
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.86
Sortino ratio0.13
Upside Potential Ratio7.94
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.68
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms69
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)-0.99
p(b)0.56
t(a)0.16
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.00
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df130
t0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.79
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio7.81
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.69
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms69
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)-0.98
p(b)0.55
t(a)0.10
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations12
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.98
Median0.99
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.89
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.58
Number of observations265
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high21
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.06
Median0.07
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-496760768
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)147
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.67
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.67
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.27
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.43
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.61
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.22
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.86

Trading record

Placed 449 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SI long37Nov 15, 2021Nov 29, 2021($245)
STN long446Oct 26, 2021Nov 29, 2021($572)
TEAM long46Nov 15, 2021Nov 23, 2021($2,229)
ABNB long41Nov 15, 2021Nov 23, 2021($1,039)
HUT long247Nov 1, 2021Nov 19, 2021($91)
BITF long923Nov 15, 2021Nov 19, 2021($788)
BENEW long2277Nov 9, 2021Nov 19, 2021($460)
ICE long299Nov 15, 2021Nov 19, 2021($126)
DWAC long114Nov 11, 2021Nov 19, 2021($194)
LIFE long2604Nov 15, 2021Nov 19, 2021($1,177)
BEN long595Nov 15, 2021Nov 19, 2021($903)
PHUN long881Nov 9, 2021Nov 19, 2021($234)
TSX.GLO long2200Nov 15, 2021Nov 19, 2021($1,075)
XLRN long155Oct 22, 2021Nov 15, 2021($116)
SRLN long3305Oct 11, 2021Nov 15, 2021($38)
SALM long2432Nov 8, 2021Nov 11, 2021($808)
SKIN long188Nov 4, 2021Nov 11, 2021($818)
PLYA long2291Oct 26, 2021Nov 1, 2021$333
NVTS long856Nov 1, 2021Nov 1, 2021$509
VVR long9812Oct 14, 2021Oct 22, 2021$192
SI long27Oct 14, 2021Oct 20, 2021($663)
VVR long17857Sep 29, 2021Sep 30, 2021$888
NMCO long1744Aug 13, 2021Sep 28, 2021($1,147)
AOK long2264Sep 16, 2021Sep 21, 2021($684)
UVXY long667Aug 26, 2021Sep 20, 2021$2,031
ASAN long70Aug 31, 2021Sep 2, 2021$676
SWAN long1596Aug 13, 2021Aug 25, 2021$223
PLYM long560Aug 13, 2021Aug 19, 2021($25)
UVXY long313Aug 13, 2021Aug 17, 2021$593
VXX long724Jul 27, 2021Aug 6, 2021($1,671)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.