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Stock Booster Swing

Equity · Stocks · Started Nov 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.1%
Max Drawdown
21.1%
Trades
541
Win Trades
47.5%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
12.7%

About this strategy

For auto traders - when you calculates scaling for Commando Swing take in mind I am using buying power of 20K$ max even though my portfolio is worth more.

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-2.11.3-0.8
202118.22.7-1.1-7.30.95.4-2.72.4-6.63.31.211.127.9
2022-1.4-0.3-3.5-8.9-0.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-13.9
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/9/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age71 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades541
# Profitable257
% Profitable47.5%
Avg trade duration4.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown21.1%
drawdown periodFeb 16, 2021 - June 02, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)6.1%
Avg win$124
Avg loss$99

Ratios

W:L ratio1.14
Sharpe Ratio0.01
Sortino Ratio0.01
Calmar Ratio0.22

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.12
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life115.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-2.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity23.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss62.5%
Chance of 20% account loss14.0%
Chance of 30% account loss4.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated12.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)710
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)362

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$99
Avg Win$124
# Winners257
Sum Trade PL (losers)$28,010
Sum Trade PL (winners)$31,977
Num Months Winners9
# Losers284
% Winners47.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct92

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table71

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5810.63
Avg Position Time (hrs)96.84
Avg Trade Length4
Last Trade Ago1618

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.92
Daily leverage (max)8.09

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.07
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades24.29
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.91
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.35
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.25
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df17
t0.65
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.11
Sortino ratio0.94
Upside Potential Ratio2.61
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms10
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error16
t(b)1.13
p(b)0.36
t(a)0.43
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.10
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df17
t0.52
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio0.71
Upside Potential Ratio2.37
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms10
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error16
t(b)1.07
p(b)0.37
t(a)0.33
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.11
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df397
t0.75
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.19
Sortino ratio0.87
Upside Potential Ratio7.51
Upside part of mean0.95
Downside part of mean-0.84
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms171
N negative terms227
N of observations398
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error396
t(b)5.04
p(b)0
t(a)0.66
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)0.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.09
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df397
t0.63
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.10
Sortino ratio0.73
Upside Potential Ratio7.31
Upside part of mean0.94
Downside part of mean-0.85
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms171
N negative terms227
N of observations398
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error396
t(b)5.01
p(b)0
t(a)0.57
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)0.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.11
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.50
df130
t-0.36
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.27
Sortino ratio-0.68
Upside Potential Ratio4.51
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.81
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms27
N negative terms104
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.33
Mean of criterion-0.11
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)2.26
p(b)0.38
t(a)-0.16
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.60
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.13
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.61
df130
t-0.43
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.17
Sortino ratio-0.80
Upside Potential Ratio4.34
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.82
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms27
N negative terms104
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.36
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)2.23
p(b)0.38
t(a)-0.22
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.52
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.73
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations18
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.96
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations398
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high23
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low32
Percentage of outliers low0.24
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high27
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.06
Median0.10
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.10
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.65
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.15
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.03
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-461428416
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)106
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.20
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.12
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.86
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.71
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.64
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.91
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.54

Trading record

Placed 1397 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long440Mar 29, 2022Apr 6, 2022($4,023)
TQQQ long500Mar 21, 2022Mar 25, 2022$1,322
TQQQ short100Mar 18, 2022Mar 18, 2022($124)
TQQQ long10Feb 8, 2022Feb 8, 2022($2)
SPXL long15Feb 8, 2022Feb 8, 2022($4)
TQQQ long20Feb 4, 2022Feb 8, 2022($20)
SPXL long30Feb 4, 2022Feb 8, 2022($27)
TQQQ short10Feb 2, 2022Feb 4, 2022$76
SPXL short30Feb 1, 2022Feb 4, 2022$33
TQQQ short10Feb 1, 2022Feb 2, 2022($29)
SPXL long30Jan 28, 2022Feb 1, 2022$330
TQQQ long20Jan 28, 2022Feb 1, 2022$153
SPXL short15Jan 27, 2022Jan 28, 2022$80
TQQQ short10Jan 27, 2022Jan 27, 2022$4
TQQQ long120Jan 24, 2022Jan 25, 2022$86
SPXL long30Jan 24, 2022Jan 25, 2022$68
TQQQ long10Jan 24, 2022Jan 24, 2022$8
SPXL long15Jan 24, 2022Jan 24, 2022$19
SPXL long90Jan 5, 2022Jan 5, 2022$5
SPXL long135Dec 29, 2021Jan 5, 2022($704)
TQQQ long99Dec 29, 2021Jan 5, 2022($943)
SPXL long190Dec 23, 2021Dec 28, 2021$1,041
TQQQ long95Dec 23, 2021Dec 28, 2021$553
SPXL long300Dec 23, 2021Dec 23, 2021$353
TQQQ long145Dec 23, 2021Dec 23, 2021$141
TQQQ long100Dec 23, 2021Dec 23, 2021$187
SPXL long20Dec 17, 2021Dec 23, 2021$186
TQQQ long10Dec 17, 2021Dec 23, 2021$144
SOXL short30Dec 16, 2021Dec 16, 2021$280
TQQQ short30Dec 16, 2021Dec 16, 2021$387

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.