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PvOptionSelling

Options · Options · Started Oct 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-8.1%
Max Drawdown
71.6%
Trades
171
Win Trades
88.3%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
40.6%

About this strategy

This strategy will sell Cash-Secured Puts, it writes put options which are backed-up by cash to cover for a possible assignment. When assigned, the stocks will either serve as a cover for Covered Call writing or sold at the first possible occasion.
The strategy targets the next or next but one expiration date of the options, combining monthly as well as (most often) weekly options.
It limits itself to stocks with a strike price of 100 USD or less, meaning this strategy can be followed with a starting capital of 10.000 USD

!! Important Note to new subscribers:
After joining, I would like to advice you to
1) synchronize your positions with existing long stock positions (surely useful if you use the Autotrade functionality)
OR
2) only follow the new Sell-to-Open put (only Put) trades and not the other trades you will see, like any Sell-to-Close of shares or options and also no Sell-to-Open trades of -covered- calls. Because these are only valid if you actually own these shares (for instance after an assignment when having sold a put before) and are not to be taken stand-alone !

Covered Calls Premium Collecting

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-3.220.10.917.3
202121.90.9-4.1-0.7-3.716.0-16.7-3.0-8.73.1-1.9-9.2-11.4
2022-14.8-2.86.9-18.4-1.8-2.14.5-6.3-0.3-10.0-0.1-4.0-41.4
202314.4-9.71.8-2.36.92.15.1-6.8-2.3-8.47.98.615.1
2024-2.64.0-5.2-7.95.5-12.17.10.0-4.01.3-5.1-24.9
2025-4.6-2.00.02.4-6.19.60.0-4.2-12.715.5-4.3
202611.0-7.7-12.727.930.41.7-15.3-6.20.621.3

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/26/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age71 months
What it tradesStocks, Options
# Trades171
# Profitable151
% Profitable88.3%
Avg trade duration207.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown71.6%
drawdown periodJuly 01, 2021 - Nov 15, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)-8.1%
Avg win$843
Avg loss$7,798

Ratios

W:L ratio0.83
Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Sortino Ratio-0.26
Calmar Ratio-0.31

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.44
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life124.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-166.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-8.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-5.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity151.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.7%
Short Options - Percent Covered19.4%
Percent Trades Stocks0.3%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss12.0%
Chance of 20% account loss1.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$7,798
Avg Win$843
# Winners151
Sum Trade PL (losers)$155,951
Sum Trade PL (winners)$127,303
Num Months Winners28
# Losers20
% Winners88.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1509

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table72

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)298042.47
Avg Position Time (hrs)4967.38
Avg Trade Length207
Last Trade Ago129

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.91
Daily leverage (max)2.01

Regression

Alpha-0.05
Beta0.86
Treynor Index-0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.27
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.12
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-8.29
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.80
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.90
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.18

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.18
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.36
df16
t-0.45
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.29
Sortino ratio-0.47
Upside Potential Ratio1.61
Upside part of mean0.61
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms8
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.07
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.51
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error15
t(b)1.77
p(b)0.24
t(a)-1.20
p(a)0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.51
Mean-0.30
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.56
df16
t-0.70
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.10
Sortino ratio-0.70
Upside Potential Ratio1.34
Upside part of mean0.57
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.43
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms8
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion-0.30
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance0.07
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.65
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error15
t(b)1.87
p(b)0.23
t(a)-1.48
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.43
Jensen alpha (a)-0.65
VaR(95%)0.23
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.28
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.26
Mean-0.11
SD0.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.22
df377
t-0.26
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Sortino ratio-0.32
Upside Potential Ratio7.56
Upside part of mean2.71
Downside part of mean-2.83
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms192
N negative terms186
N of observations378
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion-0.11
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.52
Covariance0.07
r0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.84
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.60
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error376
t(b)10.33
p(b)0
t(a)-1.55
p(a)0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.14
Jensen alpha (a)-0.60
Mean-0.25
SD0.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.48
df377
t-0.58
p0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.15
Sortino ratio-0.67
Upside Potential Ratio7.10
Upside part of mean2.65
Downside part of mean-2.90
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms192
N negative terms186
N of observations378
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion-0.25
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.52
Covariance0.07
r0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.70
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error376
t(b)10.44
p(b)0
t(a)-1.83
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.29
Jensen alpha (a)-0.70
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-0.52
SD0.77
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.68
df130
t-0.48
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.10
Sortino ratio-0.99
Upside Potential Ratio7.81
Upside part of mean4.11
Downside part of mean-4.63
Upside SD0.55
Downside SD0.53
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion-0.52
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0.77
Covariance0.19
r0.54
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.52
Mean Square Error0.42
DF error129
t(b)7.26
p(b)0.17
t(a)-1.64
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.57
Jensen alpha (a)-1.52
Mean-0.81
SD0.76
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.06
df130
t-0.75
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.72
Sortino ratio-1.47
Upside Potential Ratio7.22
Upside part of mean3.97
Downside part of mean-4.78
Upside SD0.52
Downside SD0.55
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.99
Mean of criterion-0.81
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0.76
Covariance0.19
r0.54
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.71
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error129
t(b)7.38
p(b)0.17
t(a)-1.88
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.89
Jensen alpha (a)-1.71
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations17
Minimum0.71
Quartile 10.88
Median1.02
Quartile 31.11
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.82
Mean of quarter 20.96
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.22
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.29
Number of observations378
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.97
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.21
Median0.34
Quartile 30.47
Maximum0.60
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.60
Inter Quartile Range0.26
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.63
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.44
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.27
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.96
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.49
Expected Shortfall (regression method)12.57
Number of observations1
Minimum0.49
Quartile 10.49
Median0.49
Quartile 30.49
Maximum0.49
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-394905216
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1598
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.39
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.85
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.31
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.77
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.06
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.65
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.54
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.71

Trading record

Placed 57 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
PARA long200Apr 10, 2021Aug 7, 2025($38,410)
SPCE2104R18 short5May 11, 2021May 27, 2021$818
FUBO long400Apr 17, 2021May 26, 2021$480
CPSH2121Q10 short10Apr 14, 2021May 22, 2021$1,463
OCGN2121Q15 short7May 3, 2021May 22, 2021$1,976
CPSH2121Q7.5 short10May 10, 2021May 22, 2021$1,243
NKLA long1400Apr 17, 2021May 17, 2021$235
JMIA2114Q25 short4May 6, 2021May 15, 2021$937
MRNA2114Q152.5 short1May 6, 2021May 15, 2021$899
FUBO2107E22.5 short5Apr 22, 2021May 8, 2021$517
INTC2107Q59.5 short2Apr 29, 2021May 8, 2021$457
NKLA2107Q12 short8Apr 29, 2021May 8, 2021$554
OSTK2130P78 short1Apr 15, 2021Apr 30, 2021$711
OSTK long200Apr 17, 2021Apr 29, 2021$342
MAC long700Mar 20, 2021Apr 28, 2021$205
OSTK2123P79 short1Apr 13, 2021Apr 24, 2021$439
SGLB2116D5 short20Mar 24, 2021Apr 17, 2021$1,086
RIOT2116P54.5 short2Apr 12, 2021Apr 17, 2021$599
DISCA2116P45 short2Mar 30, 2021Apr 17, 2021$646
NKLA2116P14 short6Apr 7, 2021Apr 17, 2021$554
KMPH2116D12.5 short8Apr 7, 2021Apr 17, 2021$394
OSTK2116P79 short1Apr 13, 2021Apr 17, 2021$309
FUBO2116P22.5 short4Apr 9, 2021Apr 17, 2021$793
SVRA2116D2.5 short40Mar 30, 2021Apr 17, 2021$199
CHPT2109P30 short3Apr 1, 2021Apr 10, 2021$658
VIAC2109P48 short2Mar 30, 2021Apr 10, 2021$661
IQ2109P18.5 short5Mar 30, 2021Apr 10, 2021$717
SVRA2119O2.5 short40Mar 16, 2021Mar 20, 2021$1,272
SGLB2119O5 short20Mar 15, 2021Mar 20, 2021$934
KMPH2119O10 short10Mar 12, 2021Mar 17, 2021$1,041

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.