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Options US

Options · Options · Started Oct 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
5.3%
Max Drawdown
6.0%
Trades
260
Win Trades
98.5%
Profit Factor
149.50
Win Months
58.3%

Short Volatility

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20200.60.90.92.4
20210.80.710.91.00.60.50.50.20.50.7-4.56.419.1
20220.50.40.51.00.70.30.7-0.00.30.70.30.35.8
2023-0.00.20.40.50.30.20.40.30.10.30.30.43.4
20240.30.30.40.50.2-0.40.60.00.00.00.00.01.8
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/21/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$90,000
Age72 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades260
# Profitable256
% Profitable98.5%
Avg trade duration4.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown6.0%
drawdown periodDec 15, 2021 - Dec 16, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)5.3%
Avg win$158
Avg loss$68

Ratios

W:L ratio149.48
Sharpe Ratio0.38
Sortino Ratio0.76
Calmar Ratio2.20

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life122.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-88.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss45.0%
Chance of 20% account loss9.0%
Chance of 30% account loss2.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$68
Avg Win$158
# Winners256
Sum Trade PL (losers)$271
Sum Trade PL (winners)$40,510
Num Months Winners42
# Losers4
% Winners98.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table72

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6444.70
Avg Position Time (hrs)107.41
Avg Trade Length4.50
Last Trade Ago787

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.89
Daily leverage (max)12.95

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index0.83

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.69
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.85
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.58
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-6.67
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.59

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.07
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.20
df43
t2.35
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.26
Sortino ratio6.37
Upside Potential Ratio6.95
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms5
N of observations44
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error42
t(b)0.72
p(b)0.24
t(a)2.05
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)1.95
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.07
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.23
df43
t2.40
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.29
Sortino ratio6.14
Upside Potential Ratio6.71
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms5
N of observations44
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error42
t(b)0.69
p(b)0.25
t(a)2.14
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)2.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.07
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.93
df980
t1.80
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.94
Sortino ratio2.06
Upside Potential Ratio4.68
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms498
N negative terms483
N of observations981
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error979
t(b)0.30
p(b)0.38
t(a)1.78
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)19.99
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.07
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.92
df980
t1.78
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.93
Sortino ratio1.96
Upside Potential Ratio4.56
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms498
N negative terms483
N of observations981
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error979
t(b)0.35
p(b)0.36
t(a)1.76
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)17.15
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.00
SD0.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.19
df130
t-0.14
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.96
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.58
Sortino ratio-0.31
Upside Potential Ratio6.14
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms95
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.79
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.01
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.09
p(b)0.50
t(a)-0.15
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.70
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
Mean-0.00
SD0.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.20
df130
t-0.14
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.57
Sortino ratio-0.31
Upside Potential Ratio6.12
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms95
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.73
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.01
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.11
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.15
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.27
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations44
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.01
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations981
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low43
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high68
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high26
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.70
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.90
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.02
Median0.02
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations125
Minimum0
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)5.83
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-467053920
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.76
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs20.60
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.93
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.44
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs10.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal20.53

Trading record

Placed 36 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
V2412S240 short50Jul 9, 2024Jul 13, 2024$165
V2405S252.5 short45Jun 25, 2024Jul 6, 2024($176)
V2421R240 short50Jun 11, 2024Jun 22, 2024$165
V2407R245 short45May 29, 2024Jun 8, 2024$284
V2424Q257.5 short40May 20, 2024May 25, 2024$38
V2417Q250 short30May 7, 2024May 18, 2024$159
V2403Q252.5 short40Apr 29, 2024May 4, 2024$33
V2426P250 short45Apr 23, 2024Apr 27, 2024$419
SPXL2419P85 short20Apr 12, 2024Apr 20, 2024$86
V2419P250 short20Apr 12, 2024Apr 20, 2024$106
V2405P255 short45Mar 28, 2024Apr 6, 2024$80
V2422O265 short40Mar 19, 2024Mar 23, 2024$89
V2415O240 short45Mar 5, 2024Mar 16, 2024$194
V2401O235 short50Feb 20, 2024Mar 2, 2024$215
V2416N235 short40Feb 5, 2024Feb 17, 2024$92
V2402N227.5 short60Jan 22, 2024Feb 3, 2024$550
V2412M242.5 short40Jan 9, 2024Jan 13, 2024$92
V2405M230 short50Dec 25, 2023Jan 6, 2024$315
SPY2322X422 short1Dec 20, 2023Dec 23, 2023$2
V2322X235 short50Dec 18, 2023Dec 23, 2023$165
V2315X237.5 short30Dec 12, 2023Dec 16, 2023$69
V2301X232.5 short45Nov 27, 2023Dec 2, 2023$104
V2317W210 short30Nov 6, 2023Nov 18, 2023$129
V2317K257.5 short10Nov 6, 2023Nov 18, 2023$33
V2303W217.5 short40Oct 31, 2023Nov 4, 2023$92
V2327V195 short45Oct 23, 2023Oct 28, 2023$239
V2320V217.5 short40Oct 17, 2023Oct 21, 2023$92
V2313V210 short40Oct 9, 2023Oct 14, 2023$92
V2306V212.5 short40Oct 2, 2023Oct 7, 2023$92
V2322U222.5 short20Sep 21, 2023Sep 23, 2023$46

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.