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Ultra Pro Futures

Futures · Futures · Started Sep 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
68.6%
Max Drawdown
51.3%
Trades
186
Win Trades
66.1%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
9.6%

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20204.7-8.819.20.013.8
202112.26.5-0.45.10.5-3.4-2.4-22.389.7-15.00.00.048.6
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/6/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age73 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades186
# Profitable123
% Profitable66.1%
Avg trade duration21.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown51.4%
drawdown periodAug 19, 2021 - Sept 06, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)68.6%
Avg win$1,968
Avg loss$2,695

Ratios

W:L ratio1.43
Sharpe Ratio0.33
Sortino Ratio0.54
Calmar Ratio0.85

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life121.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)48.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)68.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.7%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity27.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.9%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.1%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss74.0%
Chance of 20% account loss49.5%
Chance of 30% account loss36.0%
Chance of 40% account loss15.0%
Chance of 50% account loss6.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)728
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)533

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,695
Avg Win$1,968
# Winners123
Sum Trade PL (losers)$169,763
Sum Trade PL (winners)$242,085
Num Months Winners8
# Losers63
% Winners66.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1423

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table73

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)31377.87
Avg Position Time (hrs)522.96
Avg Trade Length21.80
Last Trade Ago1778

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.95
Daily leverage (max)55.45

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.12
Treynor Index0.23

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.63
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.23
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.84
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.42
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.18

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.67
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.70
df12
t1.89
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.70
Sortino ratio5.83
Upside Potential Ratio7.48
Upside part of mean0.86
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms4
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.67
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance-0.00
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.80
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error11
t(b)-0.48
p(b)0.68
t(a)1.75
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.81
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.99
Jensen alpha (a)0.80
Mean0.59
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.63
df12
t1.81
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.62
Sortino ratio5.02
Upside Potential Ratio6.66
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms4
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.59
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance-0.00
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.56
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.70
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error11
t(b)-0.43
p(b)0.66
t(a)1.65
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.64
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.70
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.73
SD0.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.22
df287
t1.28
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.09
Sortino ratio2.16
Upside Potential Ratio9.32
Upside part of mean3.13
Downside part of mean-2.41
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms163
N negative terms125
N of observations288
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.73
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.60
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.39
Mean Square Error0.35
DF error286
t(b)2.51
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.04
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.70
Treynor index (mean / b)1.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.59
Mean0.56
SD0.57
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df287
t1.03
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.85
Sortino ratio1.60
Upside Potential Ratio8.66
Upside part of mean3.03
Downside part of mean-2.47
Upside SD0.45
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms163
N negative terms125
N of observations288
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.56
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.57
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.32
DF error286
t(b)2.62
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.78
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.49
Treynor index (mean / b)0.92
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.86
SD0.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.06
df130
t0.75
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.83
Sortino ratio1.98
Upside Potential Ratio9.50
Upside part of mean4.11
Downside part of mean-3.25
Upside SD0.68
Downside SD0.43
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.86
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.81
Covariance-0.01
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.98
Mean Square Error0.65
DF error129
t(b)-1.38
p(b)0.58
t(a)0.86
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.98
Mean0.56
SD0.77
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df130
t0.51
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.49
Sortino ratio1.23
Upside Potential Ratio8.63
Upside part of mean3.91
Downside part of mean-3.35
Upside SD0.62
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.56
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.77
Covariance-0.01
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.67
Mean Square Error0.58
DF error129
t(b)-1.45
p(b)0.58
t(a)0.62
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.00
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.82
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.67
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1.04
Quartile 31.14
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.09
Mean of quarter 41.21
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.86
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations288
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.13
Quartile 10.13
Median0.13
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.48
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.48
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.42
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.29
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.02
Median0.12
Quartile 30.17
Maximum0.48
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 40.34
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.48
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-299718848
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)18
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.89
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.86
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.43
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.09
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.83
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.80
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.67
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.13
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.71
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.68
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.79
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.65
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.34
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.69

Trading record

Placed 2 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ Z1short75Oct 19, 2021Oct 19, 2021($7,724)
MNQ Z1long100Oct 19, 2021Oct 19, 2021$721
MNQ Z1short100Oct 19, 2021Oct 19, 2021($2,434)
MNQ Z1long100Oct 19, 2021Oct 19, 2021($4,794)
MNQ Z1short180Oct 18, 2021Oct 19, 2021($18,759)
MNQ Z1long150Oct 17, 2021Oct 18, 2021$36,534
MNQ Z1short130Oct 14, 2021Oct 17, 2021($32,017)
MNQ Z1long120Oct 13, 2021Oct 14, 2021$16,347
MNQ Z1short110Oct 12, 2021Oct 13, 2021($24,408)
MNQ Z1short120Oct 12, 2021Oct 12, 2021$967
MNQ Z1short115Oct 11, 2021Oct 12, 2021$8,965
MNQ Z1long30Oct 11, 2021Oct 11, 2021($971)
MNQ Z1short46Oct 11, 2021Oct 11, 2021$3,535
MNQ Z1short99Oct 6, 2021Oct 7, 2021($1,413)
MES Z1short23Oct 6, 2021Oct 7, 2021($2,212)
M2K Z1short17Oct 3, 2021Oct 6, 2021$807
MES Z1short14Oct 3, 2021Oct 6, 2021$117
MYM Z1short15Oct 3, 2021Oct 6, 2021$308
QMGC Z1short8Oct 6, 2021Oct 6, 2021($869)
MNQ Z1short40Oct 6, 2021Oct 6, 2021($11,938)
MNQ Z1short122Oct 1, 2021Oct 6, 2021$7,223
MBT Z1long4Oct 4, 2021Oct 6, 2021$888
MBT Z1long2Oct 4, 2021Oct 4, 2021$338
MES Z1short14Sep 29, 2021Sep 30, 2021$2,607
MNQ Z1short16Sep 30, 2021Sep 30, 2021$2,998
MBT Z1short1Sep 29, 2021Sep 29, 2021$68
MES Z1long10Sep 29, 2021Sep 29, 2021($893)
M2K Z1short5Sep 28, 2021Sep 29, 2021($219)
MES Z1short3Sep 28, 2021Sep 29, 2021($397)
MYM Z1short6Sep 28, 2021Sep 29, 2021($322)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.