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ALGO MNQ

Futures · Futures · Started Aug 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
53.0%
Trades
319
Win Trades
47.3%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
20.3%

About this strategy

Manager Daniel Sonsino

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202022.1-12.87.5-3.5-0.89.6
20213.9-0.3-3.77.7-3.56.62.32.2-9.021.3-0.927.561.4
2022-9.4-5.34.4-9.11.5-9.6-1.7-14.62.1-3.1-10.62.5-43.2
2023-7.12.72.1-0.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-2.8
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/6/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age74 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades319
# Profitable151
% Profitable47.3%
Avg trade duration1.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown53.0%
drawdown periodJan 04, 2022 - Jan 26, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$569
Avg loss$500

Ratios

W:L ratio1.02
Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Sortino Ratio-0.01
Calmar Ratio0.03

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.14
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life126.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-22.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity94.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss80.5%
Chance of 20% account loss62.5%
Chance of 30% account loss30.0%
Chance of 40% account loss7.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated98.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)719
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)575

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$500
Avg Win$569
# Winners151
Sum Trade PL (losers)$84,020
Sum Trade PL (winners)$85,979
Num Months Winners15
# Losers168
% Winners47.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table74

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2510.45
Avg Position Time (hrs)41.84
Avg Trade Length1.70
Last Trade Ago1262

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.84
Daily leverage (max)7.76

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.17
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-18.89
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.87
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.31
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.16
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.05

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.03
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.11
df31
t0.18
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.31
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.31
Sortino ratio0.19
Upside Potential Ratio2.24
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms17
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error30
t(b)-0.48
p(b)0.68
t(a)0.23
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.21
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean-0.00
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.00
df31
t-0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.20
Sortino ratio-0.00
Upside Potential Ratio2.03
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms17
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error30
t(b)-0.56
p(b)0.71
t(a)0.04
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.04
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.15
df699
t0.24
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.35
Sortino ratio0.21
Upside Potential Ratio6.98
Upside part of mean1.47
Downside part of mean-1.43
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms300
N negative terms400
N of observations700
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.01
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error698
t(b)5.30
p(b)0
t(a)0.13
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)0.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean-0.00
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.00
df699
t-0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.20
Sortino ratio-0.00
Upside Potential Ratio6.70
Upside part of mean1.45
Downside part of mean-1.45
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms300
N negative terms400
N of observations700
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.01
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error698
t(b)5.35
p(b)0
t(a)-0.09
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.18
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.82
df130
t-0.58
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.95
Sortino ratio-1.02
Upside Potential Ratio5.89
Upside part of mean1.03
Downside part of mean-1.21
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms54
N negative terms77
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.00
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.20
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)1.37
p(b)0.42
t(a)-0.67
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.29
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
Mean-0.20
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.92
df130
t-0.66
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.85
Sortino ratio-1.13
Upside Potential Ratio5.74
Upside part of mean1.02
Downside part of mean-1.22
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms54
N negative terms77
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.00
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.23
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)1.39
p(b)0.42
t(a)-0.73
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.42
Jensen alpha (a)-0.23
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations32
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.96
Median1.00
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations700
Minimum0.89
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low49
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high39
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.38
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.38
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.04
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.48
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.48
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.60
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.62
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.49
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.08
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-300596096
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)387
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.07
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.21
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.73
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.68

Trading record

Placed 762 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ M3short1Mar 27, 2023Mar 29, 2023$116
MNQ M3long1Mar 24, 2023Mar 27, 2023$228
MNQ M3long1Mar 23, 2023Mar 23, 2023$245
MNQ M3long1Mar 22, 2023Mar 22, 2023$211
MNQ M3long2Mar 20, 2023Mar 21, 2023$232
MNQ M3long2Mar 16, 2023Mar 17, 2023($298)
MNQ M3long1Mar 16, 2023Mar 16, 2023$613
MNQ H3long2Mar 13, 2023Mar 13, 2023$203
MNQ H3short2Mar 10, 2023Mar 13, 2023($201)
MNQ H3long2Mar 6, 2023Mar 8, 2023($577)
MNQ H3short1Mar 3, 2023Mar 3, 2023($312)
MNQ H3short1Feb 23, 2023Feb 23, 2023$42
MNQ H3long2Feb 15, 2023Feb 21, 2023($1,204)
MNQ H3short1Feb 14, 2023Feb 14, 2023($369)
MNQ H3short1Feb 13, 2023Feb 13, 2023($255)
MNQ H3long1Feb 10, 2023Feb 13, 2023$71
MNQ H3short1Feb 9, 2023Feb 10, 2023$632
MNQ H3long1Feb 8, 2023Feb 9, 2023($86)
MNQ H3long1Feb 6, 2023Feb 8, 2023$503
MNQ H3long2Feb 3, 2023Feb 3, 2023($19)
MNQ H3long2Jan 31, 2023Feb 2, 2023$1,643
MNQ H3long2Jan 26, 2023Jan 30, 2023($22)
MNQ H3short2Jan 25, 2023Jan 25, 2023($484)
MNQ H3long2Jan 24, 2023Jan 25, 2023($688)
MNQ H3short2Jan 23, 2023Jan 23, 2023($584)
MNQ H3short2Jan 20, 2023Jan 20, 2023($543)
MNQ H3long2Jan 19, 2023Jan 20, 2023($30)
MNQ H3long2Jan 11, 2023Jan 18, 2023$399
MNQ H3short1Jan 4, 2023Jan 6, 2023($93)
MNQ H3short1Jan 4, 2023Jan 4, 2023$26

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.