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Options · Options · Started Jul 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
15.8%
Max Drawdown
43.7%
Trades
132
Win Trades
75.8%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
14.7%

About this strategy

A quick rundown of the TYPICAL flow of positions is as follows
1. Sell puts
2a. If puts expire worthless (max gain for us!) then move on to the final step.
2b. If cash covered puts are assigned, evaluate whether the position should be used as collateral for cash covered calls, or held by themselves.
3a. Repeatedly sell cash covered calls against the stock lowering average price until you are assigned.
3b. Hold and evaluate as you would any long stock position. I prefer Value methods for the most part.
4. Close position and evaluate future trade.
No stop limits are used in this strategy as stop limits on options are very unreliable and are very easily "sniped" by those looking to take advantage of other traders. I monitor all positions all market hours, and decide on a position by position basis if it is worth holding or closing a position.

Joining trades in progress is recommended to new subscribers, as covered calls are often sold against long stock positions.

Covered Calls Premium Collecting

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20207.358.5-9.89.941.96.9155.7
202122.4-17.110.2-20.317.613.1-14.816.7-7.1-5.9-7.90.9-4.2
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/27/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age74 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades132
# Profitable100
% Profitable75.8%
Avg trade duration23.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown43.7%
drawdown periodFeb 11, 2021 - May 13, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)15.8%
Avg win$3,472
Avg loss$8,381

Ratios

W:L ratio1.30
Sharpe Ratio0.46
Sortino Ratio0.67
Calmar Ratio1.68

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.11
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life135.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)9.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)15.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)16.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity54.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.8%
Short Options - Percent Covered22.9%
Percent Trades Stocks0.2%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss67.0%
Chance of 20% account loss48.0%
Chance of 30% account loss30.5%
Chance of 40% account loss22.0%
Chance of 50% account loss4.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$8,381
Avg Win$3,472
# Winners100
Sum Trade PL (losers)$268,193
Sum Trade PL (winners)$347,198
Num Months Winners11
# Losers32
% Winners75.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct498

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table75

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)34134.17
Avg Position Time (hrs)568.90
Avg Trade Length23.70
Last Trade Ago1683

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.86
Daily leverage (max)3.30

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta0.24
Treynor Index0.22

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.09
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.21
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.84
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.83
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.25
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.76
SD0.77
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df20
t1.30
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.46
Sortino ratio2.89
Upside Potential Ratio4.66
Upside part of mean1.23
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.74
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms12
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.76
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.77
Covariance0.02
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.63
Mean Square Error0.62
DF error19
t(b)0.43
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.95
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.63
Mean0.52
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.75
df20
t1.04
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.25
Sortino ratio1.77
Upside Potential Ratio3.51
Upside part of mean1.02
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.59
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms12
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.46
DF error19
t(b)0.39
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.75
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.60
Treynor index (mean / b)1.96
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
VaR(95%)0.24
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.29
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
Mean0.67
SD0.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.12
df479
t1.52
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.57
Sortino ratio1.67
Upside Potential Ratio7.83
Upside part of mean3.13
Downside part of mean-2.46
Upside SD0.44
Downside SD0.40
N nonnegative terms189
N negative terms291
N of observations480
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.67
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.60
Covariance0.02
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.55
Mean Square Error0.35
DF error478
t(b)2.49
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.25
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.42
Treynor index (mean / b)2.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.55
Mean0.49
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.83
df479
t1.12
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.28
Sortino ratio1.17
Upside Potential Ratio7.20
Upside part of mean3.04
Downside part of mean-2.54
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.42
N nonnegative terms189
N negative terms291
N of observations480
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance0.02
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.38
Mean Square Error0.35
DF error478
t(b)2.46
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.88
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.25
Treynor index (mean / b)2.01
Jensen alpha (a)0.38
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.37
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.28
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6740144790962176
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)4.8473834361573e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations21
Minimum0.76
Quartile 10.95
Median1
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.66
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.39
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.61
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.24
Number of observations480
Minimum0.82
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.30
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low33
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high34
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.11
Median0.19
Quartile 30.25
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.13
Mean of quarter 30.24
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-58.96
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.52
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.39
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.41
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-456637440
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)91
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.91
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.72
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.50
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.50
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.47
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.87
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.68
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.63
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.61
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 288 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VIAC long6000Nov 20, 2021Nov 22, 2021($34,728)
TEN long6000Sep 22, 2021Nov 22, 2021($12,705)
JBLU long3500Sep 10, 2021Nov 22, 2021($1,482)
VIAC2119W40 short10Oct 12, 2021Nov 20, 2021$2,333
VIAC2119W39 short50Oct 18, 2021Nov 20, 2021$7,919
BEST long30000Jul 2, 2021Oct 29, 2021$5,040
VIAC long5000Oct 16, 2021Oct 18, 2021($6,955)
VIAC2115V40 short50Sep 10, 2021Oct 16, 2021$8,431
JBLU2115J16 short25Sep 16, 2021Oct 16, 2021$958
CCXI2115V10 short90Sep 27, 2021Oct 16, 2021$10,417
ATER2115V10 short50Sep 27, 2021Oct 8, 2021($7,037)
ATVI2124U82 short30Aug 18, 2021Sep 22, 2021($18,958)
BABA2117L200 short3Sep 10, 2021Sep 15, 2021$419
BABA long400Aug 24, 2021Sep 15, 2021($2,264)
AFRM2117U90 short20Sep 1, 2021Sep 10, 2021$7,386
MLCO long1000Aug 24, 2021Sep 8, 2021$1,549
MGM2124U40 short20Aug 6, 2021Aug 27, 2021$3,972
VIAC long4000Aug 21, 2021Aug 23, 2021($10,245)
VIAC2120T42.5 short40Jul 2, 2021Aug 21, 2021$9,069
SNOW2120T260 short10Jul 12, 2021Aug 18, 2021$12,490
XLE2120T53 short30Jun 30, 2021Aug 18, 2021($11,302)
PRTY long5000Jun 19, 2021Jul 12, 2021$969
PRTY2116G11 short50Jul 1, 2021Jul 12, 2021$189
TTCF2116G22.5 short30Jun 22, 2021Jul 12, 2021$1,258
RIG2130S4 short100Jun 30, 2021Jul 8, 2021($193)
VIAC2116S42.5 short10Jun 14, 2021Jul 2, 2021$1,536
NNDM2116S7.5 short100Jun 25, 2021Jul 2, 2021($899)
NIO2116S45 short10Jun 25, 2021Jun 30, 2021$1,767
VIAC long2000Jun 19, 2021Jun 21, 2021($4,548)
WISH2118R10 short40Jun 9, 2021Jun 14, 2021$129

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.