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Blue Fund

Equity · Stocks · Started Jun 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.4%
Max Drawdown
7.7%
Trades
1242
Win Trades
56.5%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
7.9%

Trend-following Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20200.78.5-3.60.64.1-2.80.78.0
20210.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.9
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/26/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age75 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades1242
# Profitable702
% Profitable56.5%
Avg trade duration1.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown7.7%
drawdown periodJuly 15, 2020 - Sept 21, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)1.4%
Avg win$69
Avg loss$75

Ratios

W:L ratio1.19
Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Sortino Ratio-0.14
Calmar Ratio2.24

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life152.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-147.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity3.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$75
Avg Win$69
# Winners702
Sum Trade PL (losers)$40,346
Sum Trade PL (winners)$48,112
Num Months Winners6
# Losers540
% Winners56.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-254

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table76

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1909.42
Avg Position Time (hrs)31.82
Avg Trade Length1.30
Last Trade Ago2064

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.07
Daily leverage (max)1.72

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index0.87

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades26.64
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.10
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.46
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.38
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.09
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df14
t0.95
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.59
Sortino ratio4.01
Upside Potential Ratio5.76
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms10
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.73
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error13
t(b)0.02
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.79
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)57.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.08
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.79
df14
t0.94
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.57
Sortino ratio3.74
Upside Potential Ratio5.48
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms10
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.64
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error13
t(b)0.09
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.76
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)12.73
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.08
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.08
df336
t1.23
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.81
Sortino ratio1.56
Upside Potential Ratio6.14
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms77
N negative terms260
N of observations337
Mean of predictor0.73
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error335
t(b)-0.16
p(b)0.56
t(a)1.24
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-41.99
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.08
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.04
df336
t1.19
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.77
Sortino ratio1.48
Upside Potential Ratio6.04
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms77
N negative terms260
N of observations337
Mean of predictor0.68
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error335
t(b)-0.14
p(b)0.56
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-44.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.01
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6804040482553856
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)6.07590545973756e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations15
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.15
Number of observations337
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low60
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high77
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-425239648
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)68
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.74
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.74
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.32
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.54
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal12.11
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1510 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long15Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021($124)
AMD long31Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$85
BIDU long12Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021($204)
NTES long58Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021($280)
DXCM short7Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$145
CTAS short8Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$71
PAYX short31Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$34
ZBH short18Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$11
ITW short14Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021($9)
INFO short32Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$71
ENB short87Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$2
SYY short37Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021($24)
GM short67Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021($134)
TRP short68Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$13
CSX short30Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$3
APH short21Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021($10)
VOD short186Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$13
ABEV short928Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$125
EMR long37Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021($27)
PNC short19Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021$18
MNST long33Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021$38
CB long20Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021($21)
VOD short172Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021$35
SOXL short6Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021$53
CTSH short38Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021($37)
FAZ long494Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021$30
ABB short102Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021($10)
NVDA short6Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021$42
WDAY short13Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021($9)
DELL short40Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021($15)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.