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Insights W1

Equity · Stocks · Started Jun 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.7%
Max Drawdown
30.8%
Trades
891
Win Trades
48.6%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
30.3%

About this strategy

The Insights W1 strategy delivers a selection of long-only technical, growth and momentum opportunities on US exchanges on a weekly basis. Positions are taken every Monday morning with prior volatility-based trailing stops updated each morning. Cash is allocated to new positions equally, with some cash held back if the market breadth is bearish. The system will not have more than 12 positions. Average trade duration will range between 6 to 10 days.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20200.93.21.4-4.2-12.021.316.025.4
20217.610.810.04.88.8-4.14.68.2-8.3-1.6-5.54.244.0
2022-6.10.48.9-7.214.7-0.93.90.6-1.420.1-0.6-6.624.4
20238.9-6.91.1-4.9-5.65.51.0-3.4-15.4-0.90.00.0-20.6
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/5/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age76 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades891
# Profitable433
% Profitable48.6%
Avg trade duration6.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown30.8%
drawdown periodFeb 03, 2023 - Oct 23, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)9.7%
Avg win$207
Avg loss$168

Ratios

W:L ratio1.19
Sharpe Ratio0.41
Sortino Ratio0.62
Calmar Ratio0.64

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.29
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life139.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-60.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)13.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity41.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss55.0%
Chance of 20% account loss29.5%
Chance of 30% account loss5.0%
Chance of 40% account loss3.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$168
Avg Win$207
# Winners433
Sum Trade PL (losers)$76,722
Sum Trade PL (winners)$89,659
Num Months Winners23
# Losers458
% Winners48.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1483

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table76

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)9764.98
Avg Position Time (hrs)162.75
Avg Trade Length6.80
Last Trade Ago1050

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.88
Daily leverage (max)2.05

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.31
Treynor Index0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-77.97
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.40
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats58.33
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats67.91
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.49
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.22
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.13
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df67
t1.47
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.44
Sortino ratio1.51
Upside Potential Ratio3.19
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms46
N of observations68
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error66
t(b)2.45
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.87
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.11
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df67
t1.31
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.37
Sortino ratio1.23
Upside Potential Ratio2.89
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms46
N of observations68
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error66
t(b)2.47
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.76
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.12
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df1484
t1.67
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.52
Sortino ratio1.07
Upside Potential Ratio7.35
Upside part of mean0.84
Downside part of mean-0.72
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms450
N negative terms1035
N of observations1485
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error1483
t(b)11.30
p(b)0.32
t(a)1.18
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.44
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.11
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df1484
t1.46
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.44
Sortino ratio0.93
Upside Potential Ratio7.17
Upside part of mean0.83
Downside part of mean-0.73
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms450
N negative terms1035
N of observations1485
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error1483
t(b)11.33
p(b)0.32
t(a)1.03
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6852639648120832
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.12359290503486e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations68
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations1485
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low216
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high220
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.67
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.31
Number of observations34
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396467200
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)262
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.75
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.92
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.43
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.64
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.69
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1153 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
KNSL long10Sep 25, 2023Oct 26, 2023$4
TALK long2300Sep 25, 2023Oct 26, 2023$64
MCK long15Sep 18, 2023Oct 26, 2023$440
ESAB long50Sep 25, 2023Oct 18, 2023($129)
TITN long100Sep 25, 2023Oct 4, 2023($190)
DNN long2800Sep 25, 2023Oct 2, 2023($161)
LWAY long300Sep 25, 2023Sep 25, 2023($451)
NU long900Sep 18, 2023Sep 25, 2023($473)
CRS long100Sep 18, 2023Sep 25, 2023$112
SOLO long10000Sep 18, 2023Sep 25, 2023($1,094)
SYK long25Sep 11, 2023Sep 18, 2023$24
PANW long25Sep 11, 2023Sep 18, 2023($240)
TITN long100Sep 5, 2023Sep 18, 2023($200)
AMRK long200Sep 11, 2023Sep 15, 2023($680)
PAG long25Sep 5, 2023Sep 11, 2023($72)
MELI long3Sep 5, 2023Sep 11, 2023$71
HOOD long400Sep 5, 2023Sep 11, 2023($80)
OSK long50Sep 5, 2023Sep 7, 2023($287)
BB long900Sep 5, 2023Sep 7, 2023($676)
JBL long100Aug 28, 2023Sep 5, 2023$539
FBRT long600Aug 28, 2023Sep 5, 2023$1
ROVR long600Aug 21, 2023Sep 5, 2023$427
NPCE long1500Aug 28, 2023Aug 28, 2023$144
CWCO long100Aug 21, 2023Aug 28, 2023$229
JD long100Aug 21, 2023Aug 28, 2023$66
KR long100Aug 21, 2023Aug 25, 2023($127)
NEXT long700Aug 21, 2023Aug 23, 2023$28
DNN long3000Aug 21, 2023Aug 22, 2023$40
HYPR long1800Aug 21, 2023Aug 22, 2023$6
SHEN long200Aug 14, 2023Aug 21, 2023($50)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.