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Balanced Volatility

Equity · Stocks · Started Jun 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.4%
Max Drawdown
16.3%
Trades
34
Win Trades
58.8%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
7.9%

About this strategy

This system uses data analytics to guide a volatility-focused trading strategy. When conditions are appropriate, this system will trade primarily in market volatility. When volatility trading is not optimal, this system will trade leveraged equities, bonds, and commodities. We trade bidirectionally and semi-frequently. This system WILL NOT DAY TRADE. This system emphasizes its data-driven trading strategies in order to minimize draw downs and maximize long-term returns.

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20202.510.59.2-7.90.32.0-1.714.6
20212.6-1.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.5
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/2/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age76 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades34
# Profitable20
% Profitable58.8%
Avg trade duration12.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown16.3%
drawdown periodAug 26, 2020 - Jan 07, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)2.4%
Avg win$744
Avg loss$702

Ratios

W:L ratio1.51
Sharpe Ratio0.09
Sortino Ratio0.12
Calmar Ratio0.82

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.10
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life146.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-134.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity10.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.2%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.8%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$702
Avg Win$744
# Winners20
Sum Trade PL (losers)$9,827
Sum Trade PL (winners)$14,882
Num Months Winners6
# Losers14
% Winners58.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table76

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)18366.23
Avg Position Time (hrs)306.10
Avg Trade Length12.80
Last Trade Ago2016

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.59
Daily leverage (max)3.17

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.06
Treynor Index0.04

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.54
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-2.46
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.37
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.28

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.09
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df20
t0.68
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.99
Sortino ratio0.87
Upside Potential Ratio2.08
Upside part of mean0.22
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms14
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error19
t(b)0.96
p(b)0.36
t(a)0.20
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.08
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.42
df20
t0.57
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio0.69
Upside Potential Ratio1.89
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms14
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error19
t(b)1.05
p(b)0.35
t(a)0.10
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)0.52
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.09
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.55
df465
t0.74
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio0.76
Upside Potential Ratio5.28
Upside part of mean0.61
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms102
N negative terms364
N of observations466
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error464
t(b)2.16
p(b)0.02
t(a)0.48
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)1.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.08
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.47
df465
t0.63
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.94
Sortino ratio0.64
Upside Potential Ratio5.12
Upside part of mean0.61
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms102
N negative terms364
N of observations466
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error464
t(b)2.17
p(b)0.02
t(a)0.39
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)1.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.14
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.04
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6788680605761536
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.90241367310346e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations21
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-4.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.24
Number of observations466
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low75
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high102
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.13
Quartile 10.13
Median0.13
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-466528224
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)134
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.87
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.17
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.82
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.71
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.48
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 82 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VXX2118R20 long15Feb 5, 2021Feb 26, 2021$543
TMF long475Feb 1, 2021Feb 4, 2021($861)
TQQQ long170Jan 28, 2021Jan 29, 2021($1,164)
TMF long471Jan 12, 2021Jan 29, 2021$83
FAS long145Jan 20, 2021Jan 22, 2021($577)
FNGU long55Jan 11, 2021Jan 20, 2021$2,955
UPRO long370Jan 6, 2021Jan 8, 2021$860
VXX2119O30 long10Dec 23, 2020Jan 4, 2021($514)
MIDU long395Dec 23, 2020Jan 4, 2021($863)
VXX2119O25 long8Nov 17, 2020Dec 21, 2020($427)
UPRO long300Dec 14, 2020Dec 21, 2020$129
UPRO long330Nov 18, 2020Dec 11, 2020$350
VXX2119O25 long13Nov 9, 2020Nov 11, 2020($486)
INDL long260Nov 2, 2020Nov 4, 2020$726
TMF long400Oct 22, 2020Oct 30, 2020($12)
TMF long195Oct 8, 2020Oct 20, 2020($150)
TQQQ long50Oct 14, 2020Oct 15, 2020($719)
TQQQ long58Sep 29, 2020Oct 12, 2020$1,566
TMF long180Aug 21, 2020Oct 5, 2020($632)
VXX2020W40 long9Aug 3, 2020Sep 4, 2020($3,410)
TQQQ long55Aug 21, 2020Sep 2, 2020$1,796
SVXY long610Jul 10, 2020Aug 20, 2020$1,244
MIDU long500Jul 16, 2020Aug 18, 2020$1,299
UPRO long140Jul 20, 2020Aug 7, 2020$602
VXX2016V40 long4Jul 20, 2020Jul 31, 2020$178
TMF long980Jun 19, 2020Jul 20, 2020$1,914
MIDU long450Jul 10, 2020Jul 14, 2020($95)
VXX2016V40 long2Jul 13, 2020Jul 14, 2020$47
MIDU long675Jul 2, 2020Jul 6, 2020$171
GLD long78Jun 23, 2020Jun 30, 2020$82

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.