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JC Alpha

Stocks · Started May 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
17.1%
Max Drawdown
41.6%
Trades
1826
Win Trades
48.0%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
48.1%

About this strategy

The strategy invests in US listed stocks with no restrictions in terms of sectors and most of the companies have at least $1b market cap. Each position represents max 20% of the assets under management and leverage can be used up to 100%. This level has been reached only for 2 times since inception on levels of high volatility. There are periods in which the strategy can be 100% in cash.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-0.1-0.15.41.8-5.1-1.49.04.313.9
2021-0.04.42.82.82.11.90.43.6-4.84.9-13.513.116.5
2022-3.1-1.314.9-4.124.11.913.51.4-23.516.128.2-6.463.7
202326.5-2.41.6-3.45.33.818.9-6.6-10.4-14.719.26.843.4
2024-0.10.81.9-1.95.4-0.24.72.31.6-6.8-4.0-8.8-6.1
202514.9-9.0-12.8-2.010.710.7-2.00.1-0.7-1.4-12.30.0-7.8
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/21/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$30,000
Age76 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades1826
# Profitable877
% Profitable48.0%
Avg trade duration13.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown41.6%
drawdown periodJuly 17, 2024 - April 08, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)17.1%
Avg win$440
Avg loss$344

Ratios

W:L ratio1.19
Sharpe Ratio0.56
Sortino Ratio0.87
Calmar Ratio0.60

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.43
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life159.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)9.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)17.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)19.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity38.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.2%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss72.0%
Chance of 20% account loss44.0%
Chance of 30% account loss20.5%
Chance of 40% account loss9.0%
Chance of 50% account loss4.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)444
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)327

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$344
Avg Win$440
# Winners877
Sum Trade PL (losers)$326,911
Sum Trade PL (winners)$385,639
Num Months Winners37
# Losers949
% Winners48.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct2721

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table77

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)19014.32
Avg Position Time (hrs)316.90
Avg Trade Length13.20
Last Trade Ago301

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.05
Daily leverage (max)2.33

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.65
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades13.52
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.48
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats80.85
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats66.67
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.45
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.45
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.23
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df65
t1.59
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.51
Sortino ratio1.26
Upside Potential Ratio2.89
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms40
N negative terms26
N of observations66
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.03
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error64
t(b)6.58
p(b)0
t(a)0.29
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.17
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.53
df65
t1.25
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.37
Sortino ratio0.89
Upside Potential Ratio2.50
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms40
N negative terms26
N of observations66
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.03
r0.66
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error64
t(b)6.94
p(b)0
t(a)-0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.21
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df1447
t1.91
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio1.28
Upside Potential Ratio8.75
Upside part of mean1.40
Downside part of mean-1.20
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms724
N negative terms724
N of observations1448
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error1446
t(b)18.23
p(b)0.28
t(a)1.11
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.17
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df1447
t1.62
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.52
Sortino ratio1.07
Upside Potential Ratio8.49
Upside part of mean1.38
Downside part of mean-1.21
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms724
N negative terms724
N of observations1448
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error1446
t(b)18.44
p(b)0.28
t(a)0.89
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.24
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.20
df130
t-0.85
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.57
Sortino ratio-1.46
Upside Potential Ratio5.26
Upside part of mean0.85
Downside part of mean-1.09
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms54
N negative terms77
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.24
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.35
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)2.95
p(b)0.34
t(a)-1.29
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.35
Mean-0.26
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.29
df130
t-0.92
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio-1.55
Upside Potential Ratio5.13
Upside part of mean0.85
Downside part of mean-1.10
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms54
N negative terms77
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion-0.26
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.37
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)3.00
p(b)0.34
t(a)-1.35
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.37
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations66
Minimum0.81
Quartile 10.98
Median1.01
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.83
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations1448
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low69
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high73
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.06
Median0.07
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.16
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-15.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.28
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.87
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.37
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.38
Number of observations70
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.37
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-420854368
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)265
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.70
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.37
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.60
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.24
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-7.90

Trading record

Placed 1065 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CMG long100Nov 3, 2025Nov 5, 2025($4)
LRN long44Oct 30, 2025Nov 5, 2025$219
SFM long40Oct 30, 2025Nov 5, 2025$98
FI long80Oct 29, 2025Nov 5, 2025($553)
SNDX long500Oct 24, 2025Nov 5, 2025($150)
FIVN long800Oct 24, 2025Nov 5, 2025($923)
SLNO long70Oct 14, 2025Nov 5, 2025($1,484)
NBIX long100Oct 13, 2025Nov 5, 2025$1,059
UBER long200Oct 27, 2025Nov 4, 2025($482)
ROKU long25Oct 27, 2025Nov 3, 2025$222
WMS long40Oct 30, 2025Nov 3, 2025($185)
ACN long40Oct 21, 2025Nov 3, 2025($250)
RBLX long120Oct 27, 2025Oct 30, 2025($1,936)
MRK long60Oct 20, 2025Oct 29, 2025$10
PAGS long1100Oct 23, 2025Oct 29, 2025$501
XYZ long138Oct 20, 2025Oct 29, 2025$85
CRTO long250Oct 14, 2025Oct 24, 2025$105
FDX long22Oct 14, 2025Oct 23, 2025$179
ADBE long9Oct 21, 2025Oct 23, 2025($53)
CPRT long65Oct 21, 2025Oct 23, 2025($69)
ATI long60Oct 21, 2025Oct 23, 2025$281
MRNA long360Oct 20, 2025Oct 23, 2025($462)
UAL long100Oct 14, 2025Oct 23, 2025($553)
DECK long30Oct 21, 2025Oct 22, 2025($90)
CARR long50Oct 21, 2025Oct 22, 2025($91)
WDAY long40Oct 14, 2025Oct 22, 2025$373
CYBN long800Oct 20, 2025Oct 22, 2025($389)
HROW long120Oct 20, 2025Oct 22, 2025($429)
GPK long200Oct 14, 2025Oct 21, 2025$32
RIG long1600Oct 13, 2025Oct 20, 2025$171

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.