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JWB Stock and ETF ORB

Equity · Stocks · Started Apr 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
13.1%
Max Drawdown
13.7%
Trades
1130
Win Trades
52.3%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
29.9%

About this strategy

For the ORB strategy, there is a universe of symbols that are tracked daily, and buy orders are placed above the open for a sub-set of symbols that have a short-term pullback from a bullish trend. This strategy exits at the close of each day so there is no overnight risk.

As a complement to the first strategy, mean reversion positions are entered for overvalued and undervalued stocks selected from the S&P 500. The selected stocks must match a specific pattern in order to be considered for the trading day. A trade is initiated if the stocks continue to reverse during the trading day. Once a position is entered, it is exited by the close.

***ALL SUBSCRIBERS ARE ENTILED TO FREE ACCESS TO MY OTHER PROGRAM - SPXL/SPXS NEURAL NETWORK

Momentum Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20203.23.51.715.19.8-2.7-2.215.88.764.2
20219.33.4-7.82.74.37.9-1.5-2.6-0.2-0.812.73.733.7
20221.32.51.04.2-1.5-8.67.3-2.2-0.32.1-0.3-1.63.2
20234.1-0.4-3.40.1-0.5-4.05.7-1.5-3.30.00.00.0-3.5
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/26/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age77 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades1130
# Profitable591
% Profitable52.3%
Avg trade duration5.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown13.7%
drawdown periodMay 12, 2022 - July 15, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)13.1%
Avg win$608
Avg loss$537

Ratios

W:L ratio1.24
Sharpe Ratio0.79
Sortino Ratio1.31
Calmar Ratio2.45

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life169.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-53.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)13.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)14.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity12.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss12.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated83.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)444
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)442

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$537
Avg Win$608
# Winners591
Sum Trade PL (losers)$289,616
Sum Trade PL (winners)$359,591
Num Months Winners23
# Losers539
% Winners52.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table77

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)316.10
Avg Position Time (hrs)5.27
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago1079

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.97
Daily leverage (max)3.31

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.04
Treynor Index0.73

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-23.66
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.43
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats70.91
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats69.21
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.49
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.41
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.23
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.32
df42
t2.54
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.39
Sortino ratio3.29
Upside Potential Ratio4.89
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms17
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error41
t(b)0.96
p(b)0.17
t(a)2.16
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)2.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
Mean0.22
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.27
df42
t2.45
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.34
Sortino ratio2.97
Upside Potential Ratio4.56
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms17
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error41
t(b)1.06
p(b)0.15
t(a)2.07
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)1.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.22
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.50
df959
t2.87
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.53
Sortino ratio2.51
Upside Potential Ratio8.48
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms347
N negative terms613
N of observations960
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error958
t(b)1.73
p(b)0.04
t(a)2.74
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)5.79
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
Mean0.21
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.43
df959
t2.74
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.45
Sortino ratio2.35
Upside Potential Ratio8.26
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms347
N negative terms613
N of observations960
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error958
t(b)1.73
p(b)0.04
t(a)2.61
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)5.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.00
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df130
t0.02
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.80
Sortino ratio0.05
Upside Potential Ratio4.19
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms115
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.15
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)0.20
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.02
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.64
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
Mean-0.00
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.01
df130
t-0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.77
Sortino ratio-0.01
Upside Potential Ratio4.11
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms115
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.09
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)0.21
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.04
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations43
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations960
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low67
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high106
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.38
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations37
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.52
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-411779328
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)64
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.28
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.99
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.53
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.27
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.77
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.13
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.60
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.60
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.81

Trading record

Placed 1624 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
KSS long2617Sep 13, 2023Sep 13, 2023($476)
NFLX long220Sep 11, 2023Sep 11, 2023($528)
NFLX long220Sep 11, 2023Sep 11, 2023($1,034)
MSFT long300Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023$315
BIDU long700Sep 1, 2023Sep 1, 2023($152)
ILMN long610Sep 1, 2023Sep 1, 2023($1,579)
BIDU long750Aug 28, 2023Aug 28, 2023($335)
MSFT long300Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023($114)
HBAN long53Aug 15, 2023Aug 15, 2023($2)
MTB long2Aug 15, 2023Aug 15, 2023($2)
SLG long1849Aug 15, 2023Aug 15, 2023($597)
CFG long2112Aug 15, 2023Aug 15, 2023($512)
CMA long1249Aug 15, 2023Aug 15, 2023($879)
MNST long1700Aug 14, 2023Aug 14, 2023($158)
OXY long1600Aug 11, 2023Aug 11, 2023$1,723
MNST long1700Aug 10, 2023Aug 10, 2023($617)
AAL long3706Jul 25, 2023Jul 25, 2023$1,172
ALB long320Jul 21, 2023Jul 21, 2023$664
CMA short1224Jul 21, 2023Jul 21, 2023$5,076
ETSY long1100Jul 21, 2023Jul 21, 2023($1,841)
KEY short5140Jul 20, 2023Jul 20, 2023($391)
ETSY long1100Jul 19, 2023Jul 19, 2023($251)
SLG short1839Jul 19, 2023Jul 19, 2023($1,500)
SHOP long1500Jul 19, 2023Jul 19, 2023($474)
BYND long3000Jul 19, 2023Jul 19, 2023$362
CVNA long2800Jul 18, 2023Jul 18, 2023($527)
NVDA short144Jul 14, 2023Jul 14, 2023$3,361
BYND long2800Jul 14, 2023Jul 14, 2023($1,083)
ROKU long660Jul 14, 2023Jul 14, 2023($1,659)
MANU long410Jul 12, 2023Jul 12, 2023$134

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.