Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

T One

Equity · Stocks · Started Apr 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.5%
Max Drawdown
14.9%
Trades
203
Win Trades
69.0%
Profit Factor
2.10
Win Months
15.6%

About this strategy

Simple stock strategy trading leverages ETFs (like TQQQ) and some very liquid stocks.

This strategy reflects my basic automatic strategies on my IB account and includes more than 5 independent strategies.

Some strategies will trade the same stocks but with different rules or styles (some strategies might be qualified as trend-following, others as contrarian).
New strategies will be added to this pool of strategies if they increase the overall reward/risk ratio as calculated by (Annual Return/Max Drawdown) based on several years of backtets.
All strategies are backtested over a long period of time and must be consistently profitable each year and under different market regimes.

Trading algorithms are rather straightforward and based mostly on volatility measures or market sentiment.
Buy / Sell order are issued to be placed at Market Open or Market Close

I personnaly trade this strategy on my IB account with CFDs (in Europe, we cannot trade US ETFs due to PRIIPS).
Backtest since 2012 available upon request.

Non-hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20206.45.99.15.43.73.3-3.25.43.145.8
20210.41.10.50.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.03.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/14/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age78 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades203
# Profitable140
% Profitable69.0%
Avg trade duration2.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.9%
drawdown periodApril 17, 2020 - April 28, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)6.5%
Avg win$200
Avg loss$214

Ratios

W:L ratio2.09
Sharpe Ratio0.47
Sortino Ratio0.71
Calmar Ratio2.97

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.22
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life167.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-121.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss8.5%
Chance of 20% account loss1.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$214
Avg Win$200
# Winners140
Sum Trade PL (losers)$13,457
Sum Trade PL (winners)$28,043
Num Months Winners12
# Losers63
% Winners69.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct63

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table78

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3966.30
Avg Position Time (hrs)66.11
Avg Trade Length2.80
Last Trade Ago1984

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.95
Daily leverage (max)3.11

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.10
Treynor Index0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.78
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.57
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.51
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.66
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.36

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.25
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.95
df18
t2.57
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.64
Sortino ratio5.86
Upside Potential Ratio7.17
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms9
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error17
t(b)-0.54
p(b)0.58
t(a)2.42
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.52
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
Mean0.24
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.92
df18
t2.52
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.60
Sortino ratio5.52
Upside Potential Ratio6.83
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms9
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error17
t(b)-0.42
p(b)0.56
t(a)2.33
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.25
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.73
df415
t2.18
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.29
Sortino ratio2.67
Upside Potential Ratio7.37
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms142
N negative terms274
N of observations416
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error414
t(b)4.35
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.68
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)2.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
Mean0.24
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.65
df415
t2.09
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.21
Sortino ratio2.51
Upside Potential Ratio7.16
Upside part of mean0.67
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms142
N negative terms274
N of observations416
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error414
t(b)4.40
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.62
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)2.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.03
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.92
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6818065161388032
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)9.29854868849083e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations19
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11
Median1.01
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.91
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations416
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low51
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high66
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.03
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations26
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-414767968
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)11
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.33
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.30
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.81
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.15
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.33
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.30
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.97
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.95
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal17.65
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 505 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long50Mar 30, 2021Apr 1, 2021$450
HD long20Mar 30, 2021Apr 1, 2021$125
FB long20Mar 29, 2021Mar 31, 2021$182
TQQQ long50Mar 25, 2021Mar 26, 2021$44
FB long40Mar 22, 2021Mar 25, 2021($306)
V long20Mar 22, 2021Mar 23, 2021$50
AAPL long40Mar 22, 2021Mar 23, 2021$119
MSFT long20Mar 22, 2021Mar 23, 2021$144
MA long20Mar 22, 2021Mar 22, 2021$40
HD long19Mar 18, 2021Mar 22, 2021$186
TQQQ long150Mar 2, 2021Mar 22, 2021($963)
FB long40Mar 16, 2021Mar 17, 2021$310
FB long20Mar 11, 2021Mar 12, 2021$6
HD long60Mar 1, 2021Mar 10, 2021$312
JNJ long45Mar 5, 2021Mar 5, 2021$85
CRM long35Mar 5, 2021Mar 5, 2021$21
CRM long35Mar 4, 2021Mar 4, 2021($58)
FB long22Mar 3, 2021Mar 4, 2021($70)
WMT long55Mar 1, 2021Mar 1, 2021($29)
HD long71Feb 25, 2021Feb 26, 2021($104)
WMT long55Feb 26, 2021Feb 26, 2021($113)
AAPL long43Feb 24, 2021Feb 26, 2021($103)
PFE long200Feb 25, 2021Feb 25, 2021$5
WMT long55Feb 25, 2021Feb 25, 2021($67)
MSFT long46Feb 22, 2021Feb 25, 2021($173)
PFE long200Feb 24, 2021Feb 24, 2021($25)
FB long40Feb 22, 2021Feb 24, 2021$191
AMZN long1Feb 22, 2021Feb 24, 2021($42)
TQQQ long70Feb 22, 2021Feb 24, 2021($372)
UDOW long60Feb 22, 2021Feb 23, 2021$46

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.