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CURATUS HEDGED EQUITIES

Equity · Futures · Started Apr 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
584.8%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
315
Win Trades
71.7%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
22.1%

Non-hedged Equity Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202019.27.06.3-4.370.949.3-53.2445.322.6934.1
202148.520.741.16.3-28.739.420.215.6-24.03.7-2.0360.01217.2
2022-1.2-11.62.5-13.3-1.7-30.10.00.00.00.00.00.0-46.7
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/10/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$3,125
Age78 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades315
# Profitable226
% Profitable71.7%
Avg trade duration5.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodOct 29, 2020 - Oct 30, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)584.8%
Avg win$3,320
Avg loss$5,713

Ratios

W:L ratio1.48
Sharpe Ratio0.80
Sortino Ratio2.23
Calmar Ratio7.75

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.21
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life173.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)6851.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)584.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)5.8%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)97.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity89.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.9%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.1%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss82.5%
Chance of 20% account loss64.5%
Chance of 30% account loss50.0%
Chance of 40% account loss40.5%
Chance of 50% account loss25.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)19.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)9.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)805
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)516

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$5,713
Avg Win$3,320
# Winners226
Sum Trade PL (losers)$508,438
Sum Trade PL (winners)$750,236
Num Months Winners17
# Losers89
% Winners71.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct338

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table77

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7421.03
Avg Position Time (hrs)123.68
Avg Trade Length5.20
Last Trade Ago1530

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)7.21
Daily leverage (max)85.61

Regression

Alpha0.23
Beta1.37
Treynor Index0.21

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.06
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.41
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.10
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.38
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.16
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats70.62
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats37.87
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.53
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.57
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean4.17
SD2.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.75
df21
t2.46
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.30
Sortino ratio11.18
Upside Potential Ratio12.45
Upside part of mean4.64
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD2.51
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms5
N of observations22
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion4.17
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion2.29
Covariance-0.02
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)4.39
Mean Square Error5.49
DF error20
t(b)-0.32
p(b)0.54
t(a)2.36
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha8.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.95
Jensen alpha (a)4.39
Mean2.57
SD1.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.82
df21
t2.56
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.37
Sortino ratio5.74
Upside Potential Ratio6.99
Upside part of mean3.13
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD1.45
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms5
N of observations22
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion2.57
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion1.36
Covariance0.02
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.74
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.43
Mean Square Error1.93
DF error20
t(b)0.37
p(b)0.46
t(a)2.22
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.71
Treynor index (mean / b)3.48
Jensen alpha (a)2.43
VaR(95%)0.35
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.44
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean3.37
SD1.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.86
df500
t2.58
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.29
Sortino ratio5.25
Upside Potential Ratio11.40
Upside part of mean7.32
Downside part of mean-3.95
Upside SD1.70
Downside SD0.64
N nonnegative terms290
N negative terms211
N of observations501
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion3.37
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion1.81
Covariance0.12
r0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.18
Mean Square Error2.89
DF error499
t(b)8.14
p(b)0
t(a)2.37
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.33
Treynor index (mean / b)1.09
Jensen alpha (a)2.91
Mean2.26
SD1.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.65
df500
t2.28
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.07
Sortino ratio3.16
Upside Potential Ratio9.01
Upside part of mean6.45
Downside part of mean-4.18
Upside SD1.18
Downside SD0.72
N nonnegative terms290
N negative terms211
N of observations501
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion2.26
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion1.37
Covariance0.12
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.93
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.89
Mean Square Error1.55
DF error499
t(b)10.53
p(b)0
t(a)2.10
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.65
Treynor index (mean / b)0.77
Jensen alpha (a)1.89
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean3.92
SD2.85
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.37
df130
t0.97
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.15
Sortino ratio6.05
Upside Potential Ratio13.41
Upside part of mean8.70
Downside part of mean-4.78
Upside SD2.77
Downside SD0.65
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.29
Mean of criterion3.92
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion2.85
Covariance0.22
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)4.89
Mean Square Error7.44
DF error129
t(b)3.59
p(b)0.31
t(a)1.26
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha12.54
Treynor index (mean / b)1.16
Jensen alpha (a)4.89
Mean1.73
SD1.83
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.94
df130
t0.67
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.72
Sortino ratio2.50
Upside Potential Ratio9.71
Upside part of mean6.74
Downside part of mean-5.01
Upside SD1.69
Downside SD0.69
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.32
Mean of criterion1.73
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion1.83
Covariance0.20
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.71
Mean Square Error2.74
DF error129
t(b)5.41
p(b)0.23
t(a)1.16
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.96
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha7.36
Treynor index (mean / b)0.56
Jensen alpha (a)2.71
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations22
Minimum0.64
Quartile 11.02
Median1.15
Quartile 31.46
Maximum3.22
Mean of quarter 10.86
Mean of quarter 21.10
Mean of quarter 31.25
Mean of quarter 42.13
Inter Quartile Range0.44
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high3.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.30
Number of observations501
Minimum0.66
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum2.85
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low25
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high32
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations131
Minimum0.78
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum2.85
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.44
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.19
Quartile 10.24
Median0.29
Quartile 30.33
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.19
Mean of quarter 20.29
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations45
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.70
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.46
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.43
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.41
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.22
Maximum0.45
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.18
Mean of quarter 40.35
Inter Quartile Range0.20
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-346154112
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)63.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)12.43
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)34.51
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs34.51
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal28.04
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)41.27
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)8.89
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)12.73
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs31.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal58.13
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.82
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)4.81
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)10.64
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs13.66
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal23.86

Trading record

Placed 518 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
LNG long1000Apr 21, 2022Jun 22, 2022($9,900)
ES M2long4Apr 11, 2022Jun 22, 2022($162,207)
ES M2short1Apr 8, 2022Apr 8, 2022$880
ES M2short1Apr 7, 2022Apr 7, 2022$1,067
ES M2short3Apr 6, 2022Apr 6, 2022$2,976
MES M2short40Apr 4, 2022Apr 6, 2022$8,737
ES M2long2Mar 30, 2022Apr 4, 2022($6,616)
NQ M2long1Mar 31, 2022Apr 4, 2022($1,477)
NQ M2long1Mar 25, 2022Mar 29, 2022$4,512
NQ M2long1Mar 23, 2022Mar 25, 2022$2,357
ES M2long2Mar 24, 2022Mar 25, 2022$2,634
ES M2long5Mar 18, 2022Mar 23, 2022$22,210
NQ M2long3Mar 18, 2022Mar 22, 2022$18,651
NQ H2long4Feb 28, 2022Mar 18, 2022($33,113)
ES H2long6Feb 28, 2022Mar 18, 2022$13,902
ES H2short2Feb 28, 2022Feb 28, 2022($1,616)
NQ H2long2Feb 16, 2022Feb 28, 2022($25,072)
ES H2long4Feb 2, 2022Feb 28, 2022($49,732)
QGC H2long2Jan 26, 2022Feb 17, 2022$8,554
ES H2long3Jan 31, 2022Feb 2, 2022$9,826
ES H2short1Jan 21, 2022Jan 21, 2022$2,467
ES H2short1Jan 20, 2022Jan 20, 2022$5,042
ES H2long1Jan 19, 2022Jan 20, 2022($2,571)
ES H2short1Jan 19, 2022Jan 19, 2022($2,933)
ES H2short1Jan 18, 2022Jan 19, 2022$1,680
ES H2short2Jan 18, 2022Jan 18, 2022$2,047
ES H2short1Jan 14, 2022Jan 18, 2022$1,342
ES H2short3Jan 14, 2022Jan 14, 2022$6,464
ES H2long3Jan 12, 2022Jan 14, 2022($6,512)
ES H2short1Jan 10, 2022Jan 12, 2022($6,046)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.