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decisive focus

Equity · Options · Started Mar 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.3%
Max Drawdown
33.8%
Trades
56
Win Trades
85.7%
Profit Factor
19.10
Win Months
59.0%

Event-driven

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20205.66.10.331.18.9-0.1-10.9-12.37.9-0.933.8
2021-0.83.82.20.01.11.8-5.00.9-2.6-1.45.46.7
2022-0.1-2.11.8-0.91.0-6.04.2-0.5-7.77.32.7-0.7-1.8
20233.5-2.10.62.9-1.53.51.10.3-0.9-1.23.70.610.6
20242.63.61.2-2.4-1.11.0-2.34.22.22.21.60.814.3
20253.30.6-1.9-0.33.0-0.91.23.0-1.2-1.1-2.92.04.6
2026-4.60.1-1.30.2-1.90.73.85.5-0.12.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/14/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age79 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades56
# Profitable48
% Profitable85.7%
Avg trade duration59.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown33.8%
drawdown periodJuly 13, 2020 - Oct 30, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)10.3%
Avg win$971
Avg loss$319

Ratios

W:L ratio19.07
Sharpe Ratio0.48
Sortino Ratio0.71
Calmar Ratio1.54

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.34
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life180.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-95.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)10.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.8%
Short Options - Percent Covered16.3%
Percent Trades Stocks0.2%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss52.5%
Chance of 20% account loss23.0%
Chance of 30% account loss4.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$319
Avg Win$971
# Winners48
Sum Trade PL (losers)$2,553
Sum Trade PL (winners)$46,628
Num Months Winners46
# Losers8
% Winners85.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct2062

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table79

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)85397
Avg Position Time (hrs)1423.28
Avg Trade Length59.30
Last Trade Ago1904

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.08
Daily leverage (max)5.36

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.31
Treynor Index0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.47
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.06
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.47
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-3.35
Hold-and-Hope Ratio2.18

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.38
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.89
df18
t1.17
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.47
Sortino ratio2.33
Upside Potential Ratio4.16
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms7
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.77
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error17
t(b)0.38
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.68
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.17
Treynor index (mean / b)3.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
Mean0.31
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.78
df18
t1.03
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.36
Sortino ratio1.77
Upside Potential Ratio3.60
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms7
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.70
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error17
t(b)0.51
p(b)0.42
t(a)0.52
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.99
Treynor index (mean / b)1.93
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean0.43
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.30
df417
t1.64
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.85
Sortino ratio1.97
Upside Potential Ratio9.09
Upside part of mean1.96
Downside part of mean-1.54
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms224
N negative terms194
N of observations418
Mean of predictor0.77
Mean of criterion0.43
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.04
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error416
t(b)7.71
p(b)0
t(a)0.65
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)1.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.37
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.14
df417
t1.44
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.69
Sortino ratio1.68
Upside Potential Ratio8.73
Upside part of mean1.93
Downside part of mean-1.56
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms224
N negative terms194
N of observations418
Mean of predictor0.71
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.04
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error416
t(b)7.73
p(b)0
t(a)0.52
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.61
Treynor index (mean / b)1.08
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.56
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.73
df130
t1.23
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.50
Sortino ratio2.76
Upside Potential Ratio10.51
Upside part of mean2.13
Downside part of mean-1.57
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.15
Mean of criterion0.56
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.08
r0.54
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)7.31
p(b)0.17
t(a)0.27
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Treynor index (mean / b)1.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.51
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.57
df130
t1.12
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.35
Sortino ratio2.46
Upside Potential Ratio10.14
Upside part of mean2.10
Downside part of mean-1.59
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion0.51
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.08
r0.54
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)7.30
p(b)0.17
t(a)0.26
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.87
Treynor index (mean / b)1.31
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations19
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.96
Median1.02
Quartile 31.09
Maximum1.41
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.18
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations418
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low21
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high23
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.15
Median0.18
Quartile 30.22
Maximum0.25
Mean of quarter 10.11
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.73
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.73
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high0.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-59.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-421279552
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)109
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.40
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.58
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.58
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.22
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.56
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.49
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.80
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal12.49
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.61
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.71
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.82
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal18.51

Trading record

Placed 1 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MA2118F370 short1Oct 20, 2020Jun 19, 2021$1,799
INTC2018X42.5 short1Oct 2, 2020Dec 19, 2020$78
PINC2020W30 short10Oct 7, 2020Nov 21, 2020$493
EBAY2020W40 short11Sep 30, 2020Nov 21, 2020$356
MA2006K322.5 short1Nov 6, 2020Nov 7, 2020$2
MA2023J342.5 short1Oct 22, 2020Oct 24, 2020$13
INTC2016V45 short1Sep 14, 2020Oct 17, 2020$41
EBAY2016J60 short1Sep 2, 2020Oct 17, 2020$94
EBAY2016J70 short1Sep 2, 2020Oct 17, 2020$2
INTC2016J57.5 short1Sep 8, 2020Oct 17, 2020$30
EBAY2016J65 short1Sep 2, 2020Oct 17, 2020$30
INTC long100Sep 5, 2020Oct 7, 2020$187
EBAY2002V52 short5Sep 30, 2020Oct 3, 2020$182
EBAY2018U50 short1Aug 18, 2020Sep 19, 2020$27
INTC2004U50.5 short1Sep 2, 2020Sep 5, 2020$37
EBAY2004U56.5 short1Aug 24, 2020Sep 5, 2020$56
INTC long600Aug 8, 2020Sep 4, 2020$454
EBAY2028T56 short1Aug 18, 2020Aug 29, 2020$60
EBAY2021T54.5 short1Aug 17, 2020Aug 22, 2020$21
EBAY2014T53.5 short5Aug 7, 2020Aug 15, 2020$62
INTC2014T49 short1Aug 5, 2020Aug 15, 2020$79
INTC2014H50.5 short5Aug 10, 2020Aug 13, 2020$8
INTC2007T49 short5Aug 5, 2020Aug 8, 2020$192
EBAY2007T53 short1Jul 31, 2020Aug 8, 2020$32
CSCO2007T44.5 short1Jul 31, 2020Aug 8, 2020$19
INTC2007T45 short1Jul 29, 2020Aug 8, 2020$20
EBAY2031S54.5 short1Jul 29, 2020Aug 1, 2020$37
INTC2031S46 short1Jul 28, 2020Aug 1, 2020$2
EBAY2031S54 short1Jul 29, 2020Aug 1, 2020$25
CSCO2024S45 short1Jul 13, 2020Jul 25, 2020$33

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.