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Alpha Capital Compound

Equity · Stocks · Started Mar 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
12.4%
Max Drawdown
48.0%
Trades
1219
Win Trades
58.4%
Profit Factor
1.90
Win Months
57.0%

About this strategy

System updated with Limit orders to reduce slippage in November 2021.

This system uses a very unique two stage filtration system. The first filter calculates, compares and then ranks the entire universe of stocks against one another to find the STRONGEST stocks in the Index using a distinct set of parameters. The second filter, is looking for a timing trigger to enter at just the right time to catch the explosive move up.

Average hold period is around 3 days.

Do not join open positions.
This system holds a max of 15 positions. I allocate 10k per position.

Scale your account accordingly or contact me with questions.

Sector Rotation Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-3.615.59.815.415.04.59.94.617.00.6129.6
20213.43.23.0-3.5-0.4-1.4-1.11.8-4.5-4.64.23.53.1
2022-4.4-3.0-9.2-5.0-3.2-12.03.50.9-15.99.88.2-9.1-35.4
20234.02.0-8.8-3.20.54.45.10.9-3.4-1.98.1-4.71.7
20241.76.16.0-1.46.64.7-6.2-4.24.5-4.4-1.28.320.7
2025-0.6-1.7-9.2-5.817.012.22.7-1.118.611.47.22.461.7
202619.9-0.4-14.832.218.229.7-16.7-1.54.075.9

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/9/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age79 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades1219
# Profitable712
% Profitable58.4%
Avg trade duration13.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown48.0%
drawdown periodApril 07, 2021 - Oct 13, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)12.4%
Avg win$670
Avg loss$501

Ratios

W:L ratio1.94
Sharpe Ratio0.83
Sortino Ratio1.40
Calmar Ratio1.20

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.41
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life178.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-34.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)12.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)30.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity17.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss74.5%
Chance of 20% account loss47.0%
Chance of 30% account loss25.0%
Chance of 40% account loss11.5%
Chance of 50% account loss3.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$501
Avg Win$666
# Winners712
Sum Trade PL (losers)$253,836
Sum Trade PL (winners)$473,850
Num Months Winners45
# Losers507
% Winners58.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct7892

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table79

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)18765.55
Avg Position Time (hrs)312.76
Avg Trade Length13
Last Trade Ago1155

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.98
Daily leverage (max)2.94

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta0.59
Treynor Index0.13

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.20
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.19
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.42
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.69
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.31

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.17
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.64
df48
t1.32
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.62
Sortino ratio1.24
Upside Potential Ratio3.01
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms27
N negative terms22
N of observations49
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.02
r0.59
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error47
t(b)4.97
p(b)0
t(a)0.11
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean0.14
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df48
t1.11
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.51
Sortino ratio0.95
Upside Potential Ratio2.69
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms27
N negative terms22
N of observations49
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.60
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.99
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error47
t(b)5.17
p(b)0
t(a)-0.06
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.14
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean0.16
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df1083
t1.43
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.67
Sortino ratio1.02
Upside Potential Ratio8.30
Upside part of mean1.27
Downside part of mean-1.11
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms570
N negative terms514
N of observations1084
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.02
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1082
t(b)14.49
p(b)0.30
t(a)0.88
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.13
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df1083
t1.21
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.56
Sortino ratio0.85
Upside Potential Ratio8.06
Upside part of mean1.26
Downside part of mean-1.12
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms570
N negative terms514
N of observations1084
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.02
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1082
t(b)14.47
p(b)0.30
t(a)0.74
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.33
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.14
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.63
df130
t0.45
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.41
Sortino ratio0.91
Upside Potential Ratio8.46
Upside part of mean1.27
Downside part of mean-1.13
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms60
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.02
r0.71
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.98
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)11.60
p(b)0.09
t(a)-0.64
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)0.14
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
Mean0.11
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.53
df130
t0.38
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.30
Sortino ratio0.75
Upside Potential Ratio8.26
Upside part of mean1.26
Downside part of mean-1.14
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms60
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.02
r0.72
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.98
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.15
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)11.65
p(b)0.09
t(a)-0.69
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.81
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.15
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations49
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.97
Median1.01
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.25
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations1084
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low39
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high43
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.39
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.39
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations33
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.29
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-376366976
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)554
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.47
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.40
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.42
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.58
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.32
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.84
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.75

Trading record

Placed 2072 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
LW long68Jun 29, 2023Jul 10, 2023$23
AKAM long82Jun 14, 2023Jul 10, 2023($159)
BIIB long24Jun 14, 2023Jul 5, 2023($352)
ORCL long67Jun 29, 2023Jun 30, 2023$284
AMD long61Jun 16, 2023Jun 30, 2023($538)
SON long123Jun 14, 2023Jun 30, 2023($185)
CRWD long53Jun 23, 2023Jun 29, 2023$143
AVGO long9Jun 22, 2023Jun 28, 2023$121
MRVL long125Jun 21, 2023Jun 28, 2023$112
ON long83Jun 16, 2023Jun 28, 2023$194
LRCX long12Jun 16, 2023Jun 27, 2023$115
DVA long75Jun 12, 2023Jun 21, 2023$124
KELYA long419Jun 14, 2023Jun 21, 2023($16)
CRM long36Jun 14, 2023Jun 20, 2023$270
TTWO long57Jun 9, 2023Jun 13, 2023$171
META long28Jun 8, 2023Jun 13, 2023$410
MU long111Jun 6, 2023Jun 13, 2023$183
CRM long35Jun 9, 2023Jun 12, 2023$150
NVDA long20Jun 9, 2023Jun 12, 2023($3)
CDNS long33Jun 9, 2023Jun 12, 2023$41
LOGI long119Jun 6, 2023Jun 9, 2023$136
ANET long46Jun 6, 2023Jun 9, 2023$157
LULU long10May 23, 2023Jun 6, 2023$10
WST long10May 18, 2023Jun 2, 2023($17)
LRCX long11May 24, 2023Jun 2, 2023$621
NVDA long25May 24, 2023Jun 2, 2023$2,476
PHM long55May 23, 2023Jun 2, 2023$76
FSLR long18May 18, 2023Jun 2, 2023$111
HSY long14May 23, 2023Jun 1, 2023($3)
LVS long63May 16, 2023May 23, 2023($75)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.