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Florida Retirement Fund

Futures · Futures · Started Jan 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
62
Win Trades
93.5%
Profit Factor
0.10
Win Months
0.0%

About this strategy

I have long been trading personally using futures to build my own Retirement Fund. I am trading over $200K of my own hard earned money with all of my moves reflected into this strategy. I hate losing money. My strategy is knowing when to hold and when to fold. High frequency of trades and targeting 2% per day.

Of course these are goals only. No performance can be guaranteed, and the actual real-world results may be vastly different from these goals."

Momentum Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-22.9-111.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-108.7
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/14/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$250,000
Age81 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades62
# Profitable58
% Profitable93.5%
Avg trade duration15.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodFeb 28, 2020 - Feb 28, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$574
Avg loss$74,357

Ratios

W:L ratio0.11
Sharpe Ratio-4.08
Sortino Ratio-4.01
Calmar Ratio-1

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.79
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life131.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-243.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$74,356
Avg Win$574
# Winners58
Sum Trade PL (losers)$297,426
Sum Trade PL (winners)$33,313
Num Months Winners0
# Losers4
% Winners93.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table2

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)938.45
Avg Position Time (hrs)15.64
Avg Trade Length0.70
Last Trade Ago2373

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)43.61
Daily leverage (max)726.78

Regression

Alpha0
Beta7.48
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.40
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)9.54
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades3.11
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.91
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.71

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.71
SD1.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.66
df12
t-0.73
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.24
Sortino ratio-0.74
Upside Potential Ratio0.25
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.95
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.96
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms12
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.82
Mean of criterion-0.71
SD of predictor0.55
SD of criterion1.01
Covariance0.40
r0.71
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.79
Mean Square Error0.55
DF error11
t(b)3.39
p(b)0.00
t(a)-2.30
p(a)0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.54
Jensen alpha (a)-1.79
Mean-11.50
SD12.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.88
df12
t-0.98
p0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.03
Sortino ratio-0.95
Upside Potential Ratio0.02
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-11.71
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD12.16
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms12
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.65
Mean of criterion-11.50
SD of predictor0.58
SD of criterion12.18
Covariance5.91
r0.83
b (slope, estimate of beta)17.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-22.82
Mean Square Error49.51
DF error11
t(b)5.00
p(b)0.00
t(a)-3.20
p(a)1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta9.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta25.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-38.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.66
Jensen alpha (a)-22.82
VaR(95%)1.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR1.00
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.56
Mean-1.80
SD1.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.57
df296
t-1.68
p0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.27
Sortino ratio-1.60
Upside Potential Ratio0.52
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-2.39
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD1.13
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms281
N of observations297
Mean of predictor0.84
Mean of criterion-1.80
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion1.14
Covariance0.05
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.00
Mean Square Error1.30
DF error295
t(b)1.69
p(b)0.05
t(a)-1.86
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.61
Jensen alpha (a)-2.00
Mean-10.99
SD10.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.05
df296
t-1.12
p0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.79
Sortino ratio-1.05
Upside Potential Ratio0.05
Upside part of mean0.57
Downside part of mean-11.56
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD10.46
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms281
N of observations297
Mean of predictor0.73
Mean of criterion-10.99
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion10.46
Covariance0.16
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-11.52
Mean Square Error109.58
DF error295
t(b)0.56
p(b)0.29
t(a)-1.17
p(a)0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-30.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha7.92
Treynor index (mean / b)-15.15
Jensen alpha (a)-11.52
VaR(95%)0.67
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.74
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.04
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.92
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6819644098740224
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.75158906049326e+33
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.75
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations297
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low17
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.84
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.45
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.03
Quartile 30.20
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.20
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0.17
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-399407232
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)76
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.92
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.88
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.35
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 201 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES H0long16Jan 24, 2020Feb 28, 2020($289,628)
ES H0long5Jan 24, 2020Jan 24, 2020$148
ES H0short15Jan 23, 2020Jan 24, 2020($2,120)
ES H0short10Jan 23, 2020Jan 23, 2020$170
ES H0short5Jan 23, 2020Jan 23, 2020$137
ES H0long24Jan 22, 2020Jan 23, 2020$658
ES H0short18Jan 22, 2020Jan 22, 2020$915
ES H0long14Jan 22, 2020Jan 22, 2020$313
ES H0long6Jan 22, 2020Jan 22, 2020$252
ES H0short5Jan 22, 2020Jan 22, 2020$189
ES H0long10Jan 22, 2020Jan 22, 2020$309
ES H0long8Jan 22, 2020Jan 22, 2020$336
ES H0long6Jan 22, 2020Jan 22, 2020$316
ES H0long6Jan 22, 2020Jan 22, 2020$477
ES H0short22Jan 21, 2020Jan 22, 2020($161)
ES H0short6Jan 21, 2020Jan 21, 2020$212
ES H0long10Jan 21, 2020Jan 21, 2020$127
ES H0long30Jan 21, 2020Jan 21, 2020($703)
ES H0long20Jan 21, 2020Jan 21, 2020$320
ES H0long10Jan 21, 2020Jan 21, 2020$233
ES H0long10Jan 21, 2020Jan 21, 2020$233
ES H0long22Jan 19, 2020Jan 21, 2020($5,639)
ES H0long20Jan 19, 2020Jan 19, 2020$307
ES H0long20Jan 19, 2020Jan 19, 2020$1,481
ES H0long25Jan 17, 2020Jan 17, 2020$104
ES H0long20Jan 17, 2020Jan 17, 2020$340
ES H0short23Jan 17, 2020Jan 17, 2020($2)
ES H0long23Jan 17, 2020Jan 17, 2020$161
ES H0long20Jan 17, 2020Jan 17, 2020$340
ES H0long23Jan 17, 2020Jan 17, 2020$1,608

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.