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Klarity

Futures · Futures · Started Oct 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.8%
Max Drawdown
28.9%
Trades
887
Win Trades
68.7%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
14.5%

About this strategy

C2STAR attempt. Completely discretionary.

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20191.67.93.813.9
20203.96.62.00.412.0-6.65.8-5.6-0.8-20.422.132.451.2
2021-13.427.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.010.6
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/24/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$40,500
Age83 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades887
# Profitable609
% Profitable68.7%
Avg trade duration1.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown28.9%
drawdown periodAug 21, 2020 - Nov 02, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)9.8%
Avg win$230
Avg loss$348

Ratios

W:L ratio1.45
Sharpe Ratio0.52
Sortino Ratio0.80
Calmar Ratio1.78

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life152.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-66.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity3.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$348
Avg Win$230
# Winners609
Sum Trade PL (losers)$96,758
Sum Trade PL (winners)$140,209
Num Months Winners12
# Losers278
% Winners68.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table83

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1462.83
Avg Position Time (hrs)24.38
Avg Trade Length1
Last Trade Ago2018

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.22
Daily leverage (max)16.69

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.05
Treynor Index0.48

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.19
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.50
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.88
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.25
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.14

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.40
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.14
df23
t1.67
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.57
Sortino ratio2.89
Upside Potential Ratio4.33
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms14
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.40
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.40
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error22
t(b)0.00
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.48
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.96
Treynor index (mean / b)1562.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
Mean0.34
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.05
df23
t1.53
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.46
Sortino ratio2.34
Upside Potential Ratio3.77
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms14
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.34
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error22
t(b)0.08
p(b)0.47
t(a)1.35
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)20.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.34
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean0.37
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.53
df523
t2.16
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.92
Sortino ratio2.42
Upside Potential Ratio7.53
Upside part of mean1.16
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms215
N negative terms309
N of observations524
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.35
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error522
t(b)1.60
p(b)0.05
t(a)2.01
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.69
Treynor index (mean / b)7.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.35
Mean0.34
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.42
df523
t2.01
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.81
Sortino ratio2.18
Upside Potential Ratio7.25
Upside part of mean1.14
Downside part of mean-0.80
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms215
N negative terms309
N of observations524
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error522
t(b)1.60
p(b)0.05
t(a)1.88
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.66
Treynor index (mean / b)6.99
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.19
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.09
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6784856474255360
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.16652823017916e+33
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations24
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations524
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low63
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high82
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.87
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.06
Median0.11
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations31
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.25
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-550307072
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)73
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.55
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.45
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.47
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.04
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.55
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.45
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.78
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.45
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1638 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MES H1short1Feb 2, 2021Feb 17, 2021($566)
TY H1short3Jan 8, 2021Feb 17, 2021$2,288
US H1short3Jan 11, 2021Feb 17, 2021$10,882
ES H1long1Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$517
RTY H1long1Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021$977
MNQ H1long2Jan 11, 2021Jan 11, 2021$8
YM H1long1Jan 8, 2021Jan 8, 2021($1,068)
RTY H1long2Jan 8, 2021Jan 8, 2021($2,594)
EU H1long1Jan 7, 2021Jan 8, 2021($489)
RTY H1long1Jan 8, 2021Jan 8, 2021$77
QCL H1long1Jan 8, 2021Jan 8, 2021($138)
YM H1long1Jan 7, 2021Jan 7, 2021$117
ES H1long1Jan 7, 2021Jan 7, 2021$130
RTY H1long1Jan 7, 2021Jan 7, 2021$140
RTY H1long1Jan 7, 2021Jan 7, 2021$139
YM H1long1Jan 7, 2021Jan 7, 2021$95
RTY H1long1Jan 7, 2021Jan 7, 2021$134
RTY H1long1Jan 7, 2021Jan 7, 2021$197
RTY H1long1Jan 7, 2021Jan 7, 2021$300
RTY H1long1Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$229
QMGC G1long3Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$315
MNQ H1long3Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$102
RTY H1long1Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$115
ES H1long1Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$92
MNQ H1long3Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$143
EU H1long1Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$136
ES H1long1Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$92
MNQ H1long5Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$179
RTY H1long1Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$114
QCL H1long1Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$202

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.