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dow m

Futures · Futures · Started Oct 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
23.7%
Max Drawdown
30.2%
Trades
751
Win Trades
53.9%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
32.5%

About this strategy

"dow m" only trade futures now, no stock, option, forex, follow the trend with strict risk management rules.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20197.45.44.918.7
20200.110.05.22.20.60.2-2.910.02.0-2.3-4.26.930.1
2021-2.94.89.35.86.60.340.64.8-0.23.91.33.2100.8
2022-1.12.74.11.63.8-14.0-0.0-0.0-15.370.60.00.038.3
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/3/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$31,117
Age84 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades751
# Profitable405
% Profitable53.9%
Avg trade duration12.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown30.2%
drawdown periodJune 01, 2022 - Oct 03, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)23.7%
Avg win$733
Avg loss$526

Ratios

W:L ratio1.63
Sharpe Ratio0.92
Sortino Ratio2.15
Calmar Ratio2.30

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life162.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)172.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)23.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)24.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss11.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated91.4%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$526
Avg Win$733
# Winners405
Sum Trade PL (losers)$181,971
Sum Trade PL (winners)$296,748
Num Months Winners27
# Losers346
% Winners53.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table83

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)741.43
Avg Position Time (hrs)12.36
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago1414

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.69
Daily leverage (max)40.72

Regression

Alpha0.06
Beta0
Treynor Index13.63

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-10.26
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.32
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.87
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.27
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.48
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.35
df40
t2.54
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.45
Sortino ratio6.02
Upside Potential Ratio6.94
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms13
N of observations41
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.48
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.49
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error39
t(b)-0.19
p(b)0.58
t(a)2.44
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-10.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.49
Mean0.42
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.39
df40
t2.61
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.49
Sortino ratio4.99
Upside Potential Ratio5.89
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms13
N of observations41
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error39
t(b)-0.15
p(b)0.56
t(a)2.51
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Treynor index (mean / b)-13.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.43
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.45
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.80
df896
t3.33
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.86
Sortino ratio4.22
Upside Potential Ratio8.92
Upside part of mean0.95
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms240
N negative terms657
N of observations897
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error895
t(b)-0.12
p(b)0.55
t(a)3.33
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.71
Treynor index (mean / b)-125.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
Mean0.42
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.77
df896
t3.29
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.84
Sortino ratio3.87
Upside Potential Ratio8.51
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms240
N negative terms657
N of observations897
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error895
t(b)-0.04
p(b)0.52
t(a)3.28
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67
Treynor index (mean / b)-335.43
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.77
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.62
df130
t1.15
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.40
Sortino ratio5.15
Upside Potential Ratio8.13
Upside part of mean1.21
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.45
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms122
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.53
Mean of criterion0.77
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance-0.01
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.90
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error129
t(b)-0.82
p(b)0.55
t(a)1.31
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.76
Jensen alpha (a)0.90
Mean0.67
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.55
df130
t1.10
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.33
Sortino ratio4.35
Upside Potential Ratio7.31
Upside part of mean1.12
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms122
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.45
Mean of criterion0.67
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance-0.01
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.78
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error129
t(b)-0.80
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.26
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.78
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations41
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11
Median1.02
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.49
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.43
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.91
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.54
Number of observations897
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low163
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high200
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations50
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.25
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.52
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-375319520
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)124
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.56
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.17
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.17
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.28
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.56
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs9.65
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal20.09
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.83
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.71
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.71
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal19.87

Trading record

Placed 1341 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES Z2short4Oct 13, 2022Oct 13, 2022$9,718
NQ Z2long2Oct 12, 2022Oct 12, 2022$664
NQ Z2long2Oct 12, 2022Oct 12, 2022($187)
NQ Z2short8Oct 12, 2022Oct 12, 2022$5,510
NQ Z2long2Oct 12, 2022Oct 12, 2022($3,028)
NQ Z2long5Oct 12, 2022Oct 12, 2022($3,903)
NQ Z2long4Oct 12, 2022Oct 12, 2022$2,540
NQ Z2short1Oct 11, 2022Oct 12, 2022($453)
NQ Z2short2Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$176
NQ Z2long5Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$610
NQ Z2long2Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$668
NQ Z2long4Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$1,047
NQ Z2short8Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$444
NQ Z2long4Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022($2,151)
NQ Z2short2Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$50
NQ Z2long2Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022($104)
NQ Z2long2Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$146
NQ Z2short3Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022($495)
NQ Z2short5Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$1,818
ES Z2short4Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$1,068
NQ Z2long5Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022($2,639)
NQ Z2short2Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$84
NQ Z2long2Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022($564)
NQ Z2long2Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$48
NQ Z2long2Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$1,384
NQ Z2long4Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$1,370
NQ Z2long4Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$1,201
ES Z2long4Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$993
NQ Z2long2Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$384
ES Z2long4Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022$1,106

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.